Exactly - cool, crisp, autumnal weather is always worth drooling about, especially after a summer like this year's! After a month of hot, sticky weather I get totally fed up with it! Here's hoping the downward trend of temps will continue as we head thru Nov and Dec..... 

I'm actually quite enjoying it! Its no secret I hate summer because of how warm it is, but this extended psedo-summer is perfect because its so pleasantly warm without the day-star of July. 

Some interesting runs around this morning with all sorts of different solutions on offer in fi.

As Duane has said a concoction of options available this morning in the longer term but as yet nothing particularly out of context to the season we are in is shown. Here is my website report today.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

19C on Saturday 1st November?  Very interesting to see if 20C can be reached in here as it never recorded 20C in November since I been recording temps as the highest was 19.2C.  Good for last grass cut before light rain come in the evening and temps goes down as November progress.  Great October so far with warmth and also some bonus summery warmth on my few days trip to Germany recently.

It's looking very mundane for the next two weeks at least with any worthwhile weather being reserved for NW Scotland for the majority of this period. That's until our friend the PV gets organised, then we'll be moaning about how wet it is.

Not if the PV takes up winter residence in Siberia...

Just a quick point to everyone, we really should not be abbreviating Polar vortex as 'PV' because PV is already an accepted abbreviation in meterology for potential vorcitiy which is something completely different. Its a little bit like abbreviating baby sitter as 'BS'. 

or B*llsh*t

Being a medical person PV is an abbreviation for a particular examination or administration of medicines and is short for 'Per Vaginus'.
There is also PR (Per Rectum) which may be a more appropriate way to describe the current output

There's also a similar abbreviation in meteorology for failed outcomes: TV (Titticus Verticus)

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn31217.gif

Some better temps on offer much further down the line

Or tits up for short.

 ^^^   GB - Gordon Bennett 

Okay Q - PVx OK ?

 The Weather Outlook is continued NW SE Split and the SE plus South being closer to High Pressure and mild.

Clearly nothing exciting going on judging by the nature of the posts in this thread today!

Well actually there is something interesting to talk about and that is temperature date records.

We just missed out on a date record for temperature today. Warmest place was Church Lawford with 19.9C. Date record for 28 Oct is 20.6C

Looking ahead we will almost certainly see a date record on Friday and possibly also Saturday of this week.

After a cooler day tomorrow warm upper air starts to move back in from the south. The 10C isotherm arrives on the south coast during Thursday. The following links are from the high res NMM model

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014102812/nmmuk-16-50-0.png?28-18

2m temperatures widely exceed 19C in a large area of SE England. The date record for 30 Oct is 21.0C so not likely to be breached I think.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014102812/nmmuk-0-50-0.png?28-18

By Friday the upper air temperatures reach 12C across Southern England and above 10C quite widely across the UK.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014102812/nmmuk-16-72-0.png?28-18

The model only runs out to 12z on Friday. But even at that stage 2m temperatures are expected to have exceeded 20C in a number of places. So expect a few places to hit 21C or more on Friday. The date record for 31 Oct is 19.4C and goes back to 1968. This record will certainly fall.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014102812/nmmuk-0-72-0.png?28-18

Cooler air starts to move in on Saturday but the south-east should just cling on to the warmer air for one more day. Temperatures could still reach 19-20C on Saturday I think. The date record for 1 Nov is 19.7C so this could be broken. The warmest November day on record is 21.7C on 4 Nov 1946. This record is very unlikely to fall I think but we could see something over 20C on Saturday.

So some interesting and probably record breaking weather to come in the south over the next few days.

Yes and that Winter did not "begin" proper until after the 21st January. Bet people thought after mid January the worst of Winter was behind them 

Well i hope it starts proper a lot earlier this time round.. ideally on the evening of the 5th of December with bands of heavy snow pushing into northeast England  

I honestly don't know, I'm sticking to "polar vortex" its also more helpful to newer members that perhaps don't know what it is. Also I will find a way to actually use PV in an appropriate context of a model output discussion; although admittedly its not exactly the most intuitive of parameters to understand. 

Mods - sorry as it's probably the wrong area, but I know this is likely of general interest - NOAA is back online this morning. Snow cover wise there's been a bit of a reduction Scandinavia wise but holding on in the far north:

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

And SST wise interesting developments; the cold pool in the Atlantic just won't go away and we have cooler water taking a chunk out of the warm water off the coast of Alaska which is no bad thing. Developments off the coast of south America too El Nino wise - all very interesting.

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.10.27.2014.gif

Look forward to the video on that one Gavin, a lot to discuss.

Model output wise looks like ECM and GEM are going for a wet and cool end to the week next week though the latest ECM run isn't out yet at the time of writing. All FI though so could change and GFS quicker to raise pressure than the other models once the system has gone through.

All about date records to end the week as the only genuine shock on Halloween could be the date record going. 21C possible IMO in places.

A very mixed bag from the outputs this morning ut not without some interest. Here is my take on things from my website this morning.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

The ECM yet again looking very unsettled as is the GEM and increasingly the Met/o runs to.

Lows heading more on a southern track with time and much cooler if not colder to.