Wet and mild really sum's it up after mid-week doesn't it?

The bigger picture is quite interesting though with WAA and heights trying to rise of Scandi and Greenland... Shades of November 2009? 

yes very interesting, with ECM and GEM also showing limited signs of blocking now as well, albeit in the far reaches of never never lands. Plenty of blocking on the midnight ensemble sets, but the question as ever is where and when with no guarantees for us. Very tentative signs of a pattern change though, as has been developing for last few days. Warming event in the strat also showing more forcefully on the midnight set with -80 to -24 in 4 days over Siberia. All interesting but nothing more at this point.

An impressive rise of heights across the Arctic from ECM on day 10 this morning! Shame LP is stuck just off the SW tip of Iceland for 4 days running during this time - a right soaker if that verifies.

It could become exciting down the line from there of course. It is a bit tricky though, because the jet stream looks strong, with potent low pressure systems threatening to deflect away and/or mix out any cold making inroads from the N or NE.

We may find ourselves waiting a few weeks for the jet to calm down a bit - a lot like November 2009. The similarities to that month are striking to say the least!

Trouble is, having an active Atlantic run into strong blocking in late autumn usually means bucket loads of rain, which if it happens will cause a lot more trouble than in 2009 due to the preceding 12 months being far wetter this year. October was yet another wetter than average month IMBY.

GFS doesn't show the PV organising much, if at all, right out to day 16 of the 00z and 06z op runs. That's a very promising sign indeed from a cold perspective - it usually takes quite something to prevent GFS from running the steady progression to +ve AO that it seems to like running away with when there's no clear signal.

Looks like a very unsettled spell of weather is on the cards with plenty of rain or heavy showers with near average temps at times mainly.

A southerly jet to which is nice from November onwards.

I know we shouldn't do this - it will no doubt prove entirely fictional - but check out ptb 20 on this morning's ensembles. Just one of many possibilities!

 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=20&mode=0&carte=1

Still nothing of interest on either the EC or GFS, a favourable Arctic is futile in the face of an active Atlantic. The jet looks to be over the UK for the foreseeable future. That being said there is a very brief window of opportunity at 150hr:

When we have a North atlantic high and warm air advection up the eastern seaboard. None of the ensemble members take that opportunity though so its very unlikely it will come to anythying. Beyond that it looks very unlikely we will see any cold weather because high pressure sets in over the Azors. The EC is more promising by 240hr with the jet diving south and things looking extremely favourable over the Arctic, if it does come to anything we will have to wait until the 2nd half of the month though. 

what? A chilly wet day. No snow on that with 850's above freezing for the whole of the uk.

Disagree as your not looking at the bigger picture of the NH, look at how disoranised the PV is. This time last year we had a big dartboard of purples taking up residence over Greenland. Remember tis only early November and there's plenty of imterest in the models at the moment with the potential for a wintry second half of the month.

If the Atlantic doesn't cooperate then a weak polar vortex isn't that helpful. Its all too easy to be on the wrong side of the wavy jet. The ECM240 is the most promising chart in a while, the GFS isn't cooperating at all though with only a brief glimmer of hope at 150hr that not one of the ensembles run with. A cold 2nd half is certainty possible, but I think we can rule out any wintry weather before then.

Agree , it looks all over the place at the moment.

But early days yet

Far too early to be looking at charts that only take us to 12th November IMO , great set up's  at that point in time are wasted .

I know the Normal Fanfare on here.

The GFS versus the UKMO, are different at all of 96-120 and the T144h period.

 I wish we can XX the Cool Chilly Low Pressure.  Give us Heavy blustery Showers and some longer outbreaks of rain for a change.

The Quite Deep Iceland to UK PV Low on UKMO is very charming indeed, but GFS treats it UK Thursday to Saturday but though it brings cool showery regime, the surrounding pressure does raise the Low.

With Stopping then NE then ESE track of NW and North Atlantic Low Pressure from Newfoundland and SW Greenland the GFS moves it further NE E, with the UKMO keep it more away to NW Atlantic ahem and SW corner of Greenland especially at Sea!.

Low heads to Spain and Tunisia plus West SW Med. And High Pressure strong over Greenland especially on the UKMO Model ahem.

As we know Weather Forecasting for the UK matters more if the SE Trackling PFJ from Newfoundland to SW S Greenland to Iceland and send to UK and NW Europe with arms of added Lows around Parent N Atlantic  Low.

Checks regularly but the changes day in day out mean some Autumns and Winters are cold and Wintry some Windy and Average temperatures with lot of rains, and some of these seasons forecasting UK Weather we get and wish for we end up in some general no big variety UK Seasonal weather so I just like to avoid the time wasting comments I make and I hope this winter is colder and wet at times with mix of above average to average and some marked periods of colder and frosty weather with quite a few packets of heavy snow events and hefty settling snows in London.

But Northwest and Central England and Essex plus Kent and Slough/ Heathrow and Buckinghamshire tend to keep their snow events while London see's rain and sleet but the lucky times when it snows in London that is my best wishes and I enjoy it.

Watching the changes from GFS and UKMO it's quite hard to come to conclusions in how to successfully tell the weather forecast for days 5 and 6 and I am with those saying that it is time wasting trying to have confidence in some amazing UK weather forecast suggesting!!.

Kind Regards,

That was an horrendous month for heavy rainfall- was a bit like all three months of last winter really. I seem to remember there being some pretty bad flooding in Cumbria that November.

Thankfully, it didn't set the tone for the winter that followed,

it helps a lot displacement very important of the pest to our s/w but sometimes Q we get away with it think jan79 was on and of and touch and go with that

To keep everybody up to speed on the latest output here's my latest report on the 00zs.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

There's more in the way of Arctic HP days 6-10 on the 00z GFS op run compared to preceding ones, and higher pressure across Greenland too.

By contrast, ECM has less pronounced height rises in those areas compared to what it showed yesterday - but there's still a strong signal for higher pressure to our N and NW going forward from day 10.

These suggest that the profile is heading towards one which tends to displace cold Arctic air down into Europe - but the thing is, there's a lot for such cold to overcome first... in short, the unseasonably mild conditions we've been having of late are being projected to drift only very slowly east during the next 10 days, in the form of a long fetch of southerly winds on the eastern flank of the low pressure influencing the UK, this enhanced further by the development of blocking high pressure over western Asia.

This prevents the development of a decent continental cold pool across Scandinavia or far-western Asia out to the middle of the month, which means any Arctic cold reaching the UK via the continent will have to make a long trek indeed.

Of course, a direct northerly flow from the high Arctic to the UK negates this problem, but the pattern currently being suggested by the model output is a lot more in favour of a block to our N or NE bringing cold via a NE or E flow.

In summary, I feel we're unlikely to see any notable cold during the first half of November, with stalling Atlantic storms bringing slow moving frontal systems and often relatively mild conditions, but I'm seeing promising signs for a cold outbreak afterwards, perhaps during the final 10 days of the month, though complications often tend to delay things. Or prevent them entirely. You have been warned 

Ah the delights of the MO thread in early November, and the search for cold...

Just like the palpable malaise and lethargy of a shipload load of becalmed scorbutic mariners desperately scanning the horizon for land

It's difficult to know what to make of the charts at the moment. On the face of it there is some 'potential' if you're looking out for cold weather.

Having said that the GEFS haven't been very interesting yet either for the UK or central Europe. I also note the Met Office are still suggesting quite an unsettled outlook which means the ECM32 very probably isn't favouring a blocking pattern. If we are heading for a decent cold snap (not a northerly toppler) this side of Xmas my view is cold outliers should start appearing in the GEFS and ECM32 within the next couple of weeks. 

^^^^^^^ Agreed , just normal stuff from the 30 day outlook really^^^^^^^

A long way out but plenty of High Pressure slapped over the above chart

The angular and radial pattern remind me of last year.

A negative AO but the angular pattern is completely wrong. 

This is the travesty of a -ve AO and a +ve NAO

At least when both are positive you have a chance of some settled weather, as it is its looking mild and wet. 

The jet stream splits on the ECM sending one bit way to the north and one bit to the south. The stronger part is the northern so we are on the southern side, so some pleasantly mild air will be brought up from the south:

Of course this pattern could transition to something very cold, much like in November 2010 which took an entire week. So we shouldn't rule out a colder 2nd half, but the 1st half will definitely be a very mild affair. 

Big difference here at the pole here

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

gfs also 12z follows

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=240&code=code&mode=0&mode3h=0&runpara=0&carte=1

gm also promising

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?ech=234&code=0&mode=0&carte=1&archive=0