Is this weak strat warming? Tbh I was under the impression strat warmings couldn't occur until December or is that only actual 'sudden stratospheric warming events'. 

Yes hopefully it will be better, don't think it could of got much worse than last A̶u̶t̶u̶m̶n̶  "Winter" 

I do have a concern about where the broken polar vortex is setting up over.

That's a lot of dark colours over E America. The last thing we want is cold air there again, note the purple colours over the atlantic arctic too. Its easly days so probably ridiculous to get worried, but I am seeing some familiarity in last years pattern: -ve AO cold air to America e.c.t. 

Yes I'll second that!

Looking at the GFS model it looks (To me anyway) as if the top Polar weather (I suppose) gets a shift into top gear speed around the 16th? Wonder if that will have an effect oin UK weather?

All complants about not having enough weather knowledge, bad grammar poor spelling please address to:

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we are seeing warmings in the upper strat Q. These warmings are helping to prevent the strat vortex from becoming organised. current modelling of week 2 shows a rather more marked warming in the upper strat. If this verifies, given the current weakened state of the strat vortex, we could see it struggling to get going until into December by which stage, it should come under pressure again from wave activity which is going to be generated by the meridianal trop pattern we will see mid November. As is clear, there is a feedback mechanism going on here where the weak strat vortex allows a meridianal trop pattern (-AO aswell approaching) which in turn generates wave activity that weakens the strat vortex. it would be expected that the strat vortex is strengthening through November although it looks feasible that it may not really get going at all this month.

Ha ha....

Chicken, meet egg :)

Enjoy the Weather Model Analogy ahem.

Ah we are being interrupted by SE Tracking N USA Low's But they can only be looked with interest if there is Cold Air mixing in to them as they cross them On their SE to W Europe via the UK Iceland Greenland NEwfoundland N USA Alaska that are clearly brought on as West to East and NW SE to U K and W SW France Spain and Iberia et all direction.  This looks fine if GFS UKMO and ECMWF are to be believed We can just keep passing each week of this Fantasy Parody of our N Atlantic SST mid Level Pressure and Atmospheric Pattern Tropospheric Convection Depression family of Low P. Genesis's all this even if it is pure hope casting I cannot be saying things about the cause effects and outcome we see : Winter weather is at least due most likely by last 10 days of Nov. 2014.

 The usual drama unfolds that is what I will be for next 14 days until about 21st of the month and until then  we will continue to directly be influenced by N Atlantic SE to UK systems with their West SW flows Atlantic Dominance most likely expecting - truth is out there it will trick us for a while yet.  And I really wish for another good cold winter but the naysayers are watching us up there - I wish we get it this time USA has High P SW half and SE Half and A large High still there in Central Far West N Atlantic and A long lasting semi permanent Central and E Europe Mildy High with E Europe cold and frosty.

Cold Airmasses Greenland and Iceland SE Arctic Svalbard and N Russia Arctic Low Pressure Deep Cold Low from that extend throughout Norwegian Sea and Cold Alaska Low - NE USA far side Cold Far NW USA Northern NW and N Cent. Canada Cold Artcic Air Large Deep Low East Arctic Southwest half and Russia with Cold airmass and NE E Siberia NE Russia Very cold High P. With a Deep E Russia Arctic Low there as well.

The Northern and Mid Lattitudes Jetstream waves and stretches west East waves keeping Cold Arctic Sea Temps and Very Cold Greenland Temps. This is a very good healthy Jetsream behaviour so I wish this Winter 2014/15 well.

 😄😴😇💦 more rains on the way for this November - it looks likely that average mean CET will be slightly above normal in first 3 weeks but plenty of heavy rain thunder and showers some heavy at times as each New Low Pressure unleashes lots of Wet and Overcast skies but some sunshine at times in between heavy blustery showers.

We are looking at another set of 3 Major N Atlantic Lows this week, Next week and might be again for a part of week at 2/3 part of month.

Wasn't there supposed to be a big strat warming over Canada in November 1962?

Here's today's model output from me including the new parallel run from GFS and JMA and you can now read it here without going to my website as my laptop is back up and running.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 5TH 2014.

NEXT UPDATE THURSDAY NOVEMBER 6TH 08:00

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A weak ridge of High pressure will cross East over the UK today followed by a freshening Southerly wind and fronts from the West later tonight and tomorrow.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Generally unsettled and rather windy at times with rain or showers. Temperatures look like staying generally quite close to average though it will feel rather chilly at times. Perhaps becoming drier from the North later.

THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Ensemble forecast indicates an undulating Jet flow but generally at a position to the South of the UK over the coming week to 10 days before edging slowly north to be crossing West to East over the UK by two weeks time.

GFS OPERATIONAL Today's operational run shows a sustained period of Atlantic Low pressure steaming in off the Atlantic to become slow moving across the UK over the coming week This means spells of rain and showers in temperatures generally close to average with strong winds too at times. Later in the run little changes with Low pressure areas just a little further North by then and therefore delivering the wettest and windiest conditions to the North and West with little change in temperature

THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run suggests little difference from the operational in maintaining a large Low pressure complex being strung out across and around the British Isles for the majority of the two week period and delivering sustained periods of rain and showers at times to all in temperatures generally close to average though with some day to day variations.

THE GFS ENSEMBLES.  The GFS Ensembles also complimentary to their other runs in respect to the favoured option being Low pressure coming in from the west frequently and becoming slow moving over or just to the west of the UK with much rain and showers in strong and blustery winds as a result. The Ensembles also shows a tendency to rise pressure slightly over Southern Britain late in the period though insufficiently enough to prevent rain at times still with temperatures close to average overall.

UKMO. UKMO today shows an unstable Westerly flow following the depression being over the UK this weekend. This means the rain and showers over the weekend will continue next week though with Low pressure holding further to the NW than other models troughs alone will provide the rain and showers then with some drier intervals in between and close to average temperatures.

THE FAX CHARTS  The Fax Charts shows a series of fronts and depressions moving gently East across the UK over the next 5 days with rain and showers at times in sometimes strong and blustery winds from between South and West.

GEM  GEM looks very disturbed this morning with a procession of Low pressure and fronts crossing the UK repeatedly over the next 10 days with showers and longer spells of rain in close to average temperatures. strong winds too would be a feature of some of these depressions and fronts at times.

NAVGEM NAVGEM too holds Low pressure in total control of the UK weather streaming in from the West and becoming slow moving near our shores. There would be spells of windy and wet weather alternating with brighter and more showery spells in average temperatures.

JMA JMA continues the themes of the others feeding repeated Low pressure into the vicinity of the UK with rain and showers for all areas as a result in strong winds from a generally SW or cyclonic flow. 

ECM. ECM still favours slow moving depressions slowly filling in situ over the UK this weekend with rain and showers as a result before a preference towards sliding Low pressure down to the SW of the UK late in the run as pressure builds to the NE. This then brings the wettest weather to Southern and Western areas whereas the North and East would be drier and perhaps brighter and a little chillier.

THE ECM ENSEMBLES  The ECM Ensembles show strong support at Day 10 for a Low pressure belt to stretch from Greenland to the UK with pressure High to the North and NE. This closely mimics it's operational flow in as much as it indicates rising pressure to the North of the UK but maintained very unsettled weather for many parts of the UK.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There seems strong agreement between the models that shows a lot of Low pressure close to the UK over the next few weeks with rain never far away from any one location for any great length of time.

MY THOUGHTS  The charts this morning illustrate a very unsettled and at times windy couple of weeks to come as Low pressure areas stream into the UK from the West and become slow moving while filling over our shores. There are of course many small differences in subtle details between the models day to day but they all illustrate a generally similar pattern. So we are left to try and pick out small differences and one such one is from UKMO this morning in as much that at Day 6 it holds Low pressure well to the NW while the UK lies in an unstable Westerly flow under less Low pressure and while this means little differences in conditions at the surface as it stands it may be that if the Low holds further North than other models suggest it might not be as wet overall as some predict early next week. ECM also differs a little in bringing Low pressure right down to lie to the SW of the UK by Day 10 with SE winds as a result. Rain at times would continue towards the South and West whereas with pressure higher to the Northeast other areas could become drier and chilly feeling. However, on the grand scheme of things this is nit picking and the general message is for spells of rain and showers in average temperatures for the next couple of weeks with no widespread frost and fog issues likely under such cyclonic conditions. Then as we look beyond the term of the output this morning there is somewhat less desire to rise pressure to the North than has been hinted at recently with only ECM flying the flag of higher pressure in the Greenland areas in 10 days time and while this offers no immediate passage into the chance of anything wintry so early in the season it is what is needed to make the Azores High less influential and to stem the flow of deep Low pressure areas bulldozing their way over the Atlantic and to the North of the UK.

Doesn't this show a warming on the other side of the pole, over Siberia, though?

Back to the models and it is looking like a washout for firework displays on Saturday night, at least down this end of the country.

That's a reasonable judgement short-mid term with LP dropping into the UK, or just west of it and stalling. Apart from frontal rain, the convective maritime element could see a lot of rain falling in coastal areas under RPM conditions  

I think i followed most of that.  So. what are the forecast effects of this change to the norm further down the line?

Ie, what is the likely effect of a lesser organised strat vortex?  Less chance of zonal set up?

 LLTNP 105m asl 

Hmm; take a look at this. 

OK so a 24hr ECM chart on the left when the polar vortex is at its strongest and a 192hr chart on the right when its at its weakest. Together they paint a very clear picture. First the left, note the cold anomalies over the central arctic, this is due to the strong vortex and low pressure at the surface. Note its actually quite unusual to get such negative anomalies over the arctic these days as the significant sea ice loss in the past few years has tended to warm the upper air temperature at this time of year strongly (due to latent heat being released as the ice reforms much more rapidly than normal) regarldess of the synoptics. However as it is the AO is strongly positive. 

The image on the right by contrast is a very negative AO, the NAO is unclear it could be neutral or slightly positive or negative, but its in stark contrast to the extremely negative AO The whole arctic is showing very warm anomalies with the bizare exception of Greenland (hence the neutral NAO). When the polar vortext dissipates you get a wavy jet which causes the cold air to spill out into the lower latitudes, however this alone doesn't tell you where the cold air will go. And its very bad news for snow lovers; its all going to E siberia and E America, the cold air is a full 90 degrees out of phase, the angular pattern could literally not be worse! 

This pattern is extremely similar to January last year. 

Its remarkable just how similar the two patterns are, if anything the mean january pattern was slightly better than what is being progged; I mean at least it had warm anomalies over greenland!

I am very worried about all this cold air over America so early. Look at the SSTs:

Warm anomalies down the E seaboard, in combination with extremely cold air over the land this combination could be devastating. Its really disturbing to see patterns so similar to last year and we know how that went down. And note this isn't just one model run. The models have been playing with this since late october and will not drop the idea. 

Yay so early at least we get this out of the way

However,

Lets look at this time last year. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2013110800/ECH1-72.GIF?00

And lets look at where ECM thinks we will be next week: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014110500/ECH1-144.GIF?05-12

I know its just this mornings run on ECM but its miles away from what the situation was like this time last year in all honesty.

its not always bad news if it splits into 3 Q goodness me what a fight.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=276&mode=0&runpara=1&carte=1

To me it seems symbolic of the whole affair that a 276hr chart from the parallel model is posted and even then 850hpa temps are above average!

Not one single member can even get to -5C, doesn't that strike anyone as odd for a situation that has such a weak polar vortex. To quote Obi wan "I have a bad feeling about this". 

Dont get your self down about it Q plenty of time on our side its only November and the trend is still up for grabs.

You were supposed to say "I don't sense anything" 

That was pretty cruel of me, sorry! 

But yeh you are probably right, its only November; plenty of time for this to fix itself. As they say, its not over until April. 

But isn't that exactly what happened last year? Blocking in October gave way to relentless LPs that lasted throughout the entire winter. 

Yes Q but we need those sometimes holding to the n/w and if those little short waves breakaway into europe >t216 like the control many would be very happy cheer up a little your a bright lad>

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=216&mode=0&carte=1

I just don't see it. We might have cold by December, but November is looking like a write off now, perhaps things will change but somehow I doubt it. The GEM really ramps up the atlantic despite the broken polar vortex because of all that cold air coming out of America. Even if we are to the north of the jetstream which we might well be, we could end up stuck in an endless returning polar  or subtropical even if on the face of it the synoptics look promising. Actual cold weather is rare in November anyway; 2010 was exceptional in that regard.