theweatheroutlook

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Quantum
08 November 2014 18:58:36

And the run completes with the slicer low moving even further south:



A perfect run, it can only go downhill from here.

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
doctormog
08 November 2014 19:00:19
Okay, I admit that does have a lot of potential but it is 10 days away and possibly with limited support. At least it provides a spark of interest for those looking for something wintry!
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Quantum
08 November 2014 19:02:33

Okay, I admit that does have a lot of potential but it is 10 days away and possibly with limited support. At least it provides a spark of interest for those looking for something wintry!

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Its so different to the other runs this week I can't help thinking its an outlier, most of the other runs went for a -ve AO and +ve NAO which is why I didn't see much potential. This one went crazy negative on both! It has to be an outlier.... right?


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Joe Bloggs
08 November 2014 19:05:36
To be frank, whether we get any cold this November is neither here nor there.

What's interesting are the overall synoptic patterns; the prevalence of the northern blocking.

Looking a hell of a lot more interesting than this time last year.

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
SEMerc
08 November 2014 19:10:03

If the FFS comes up with anything akin to this later, there are going to be overnight reports of early seasonal bed wetting.

Matty H
08 November 2014 19:10:15


Okay, I admit that does have a lot of potential but it is 10 days away and possibly with limited support. At least it provides a spark of interest for those looking for something wintry!

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Its so different to the other runs this week I can't help thinking its an outlier, most of the other runs went for a -ve AO and +ve NAO which is why I didn't see much potential. This one went crazy negative on both! It has to be an outlier.... right?



Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Yes. 


 


Sort of off topic, but we don't need to lock topics at 20 pages anymore as we used to. Just in case anyone was wondering. 

Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
Gooner
08 November 2014 19:11:30

To be frank, whether we get any cold this November is neither here nor there.

What's interesting are the overall synoptic patterns; the prevalence of the northern blocking.

Looking a hell of a lot more interesting than this time last year.

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


Isn't it just , we didn't get a sniff of anything last year

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


doctormog
08 November 2014 19:12:22



Okay, I admit that does have a lot of potential but it is 10 days away and possibly with limited support. At least it provides a spark of interest for those looking for something wintry!

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


Its so different to the other runs this week I can't help thinking its an outlier, most of the other runs went for a -ve AO and +ve NAO which is why I didn't see much potential. This one went crazy negative on both! It has to be an outlier.... right?



Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Yes. 


 


Sort of off topic, but we don't need to lock topics at 20 pages anymore as we used to. Just in case anyone was wondering. 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Should we mention the WOI too? 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Matty H
08 November 2014 19:13:14




Okay, I admit that does have a lot of potential but it is 10 days away and possibly with limited support. At least it provides a spark of interest for those looking for something wintry!

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Its so different to the other runs this week I can't help thinking its an outlier, most of the other runs went for a -ve AO and +ve NAO which is why I didn't see much potential. This one went crazy negative on both! It has to be an outlier.... right?



Originally Posted by: Matty H 


Yes. 


 


Sort of off topic, but we don't need to lock topics at 20 pages anymore as we used to. Just in case anyone was wondering. 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Should we mention the WOI too? 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 

Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
Quantum
08 November 2014 19:35:12





Okay, I admit that does have a lot of potential but it is 10 days away and possibly with limited support. At least it provides a spark of interest for those looking for something wintry!

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


Its so different to the other runs this week I can't help thinking its an outlier, most of the other runs went for a -ve AO and +ve NAO which is why I didn't see much potential. This one went crazy negative on both! It has to be an outlier.... right?



Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Yes. 


 


Sort of off topic, but we don't need to lock topics at 20 pages anymore as we used to. Just in case anyone was wondering. 


Originally Posted by: Matty H 


Should we mention the WOI too? 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


What about the Jullian Madden index?


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Matty H
08 November 2014 19:38:51






Okay, I admit that does have a lot of potential but it is 10 days away and possibly with limited support. At least it provides a spark of interest for those looking for something wintry!

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Its so different to the other runs this week I can't help thinking its an outlier, most of the other runs went for a -ve AO and +ve NAO which is why I didn't see much potential. This one went crazy negative on both! It has to be an outlier.... right?



Originally Posted by: Matty H 


Yes. 


 


Sort of off topic, but we don't need to lock topics at 20 pages anymore as we used to. Just in case anyone was wondering. 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Should we mention the WOI too? 


Originally Posted by: Matty H 


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


What about the Jullian Madden index?


 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Please, I'd have to ban myself 

Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
sam1879
08 November 2014 19:41:33


In other news: the dipole on the other side of the arctic keeps getting stronger and stronger. 



Originally Posted by: Quantum 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014110812/ECH101-216.GIF?08-0 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif


might be time to top up the antifreeze and check the car tyres

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
08 November 2014 19:52:02
If November ice can bear a duck, December will be all slush and muck.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Quantum
08 November 2014 19:58:50

If November ice can bear a duck, December will be all slush and muck.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

In some ways early wintry weather is better though. This is the best opportunity to get some thundersnow! By january its very difficult. 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
KevBrads1
08 November 2014 20:06:12

If November ice can bear a duck, December will be all slush and muck.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


What November ice? Nearly a third through November and I think the CET is still above average.


 

MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
Gooner
08 November 2014 20:09:51

If November ice can bear a duck, December will be all slush and muck.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


Ive had 2 frosts so far, admittedly better than last year but they wouldn't have held a fly let alone a duck, I think we are safe 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


nickl
08 November 2014 20:19:32


If the train has left the station it really isn't at all clear on the GEFS 6z. London: 


 


 


Head out to Moscow and the signals are quite mixed:


http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/ensemble-forecast.aspx?location=Moscow_Russia


 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


Being dusted off Brian. Need to check the boiler etc. bit early season wise  and I suspect the crew still had their feet up, not anticipating they would be needed this side of December.  it may be that they aren't required, but given the hemispheric set up, I suspect it's as well that they get the old fella spruced up and ready to roll. 

some faraway beach
08 November 2014 20:44:55



Okay, I admit that does have a lot of potential but it is 10 days away and possibly with limited support. At least it provides a spark of interest for those looking for something wintry!

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


Its so different to the other runs this week I can't help thinking its an outlier, most of the other runs went for a -ve AO and +ve NAO which is why I didn't see much potential. This one went crazy negative on both! It has to be an outlier.... right?



Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Yes. 


 


Sort of off topic, but we don't need to lock topics at 20 pages anymore as we used to. Just in case anyone was wondering. 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Turns out the answer may be No.


The ECM 240hrs mean is the same pattern as the op:


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=1&type=1&archive=0


Op for comparison:


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
Matty H
08 November 2014 20:49:47




Okay, I admit that does have a lot of potential but it is 10 days away and possibly with limited support. At least it provides a spark of interest for those looking for something wintry!

Originally Posted by: some faraway beach 


Its so different to the other runs this week I can't help thinking its an outlier, most of the other runs went for a -ve AO and +ve NAO which is why I didn't see much potential. This one went crazy negative on both! It has to be an outlier.... right?



Originally Posted by: Matty H 


Yes. 


 


Sort of off topic, but we don't need to lock topics at 20 pages anymore as we used to. Just in case anyone was wondering. 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Turns out the answer may be No.


The ECM 240hrs mean is the same pattern as the op:


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=1&type=1&archive=0


Op for comparison:


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeleecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0


Originally Posted by: doctormog 

It will take cross model agreement at +72 before I even bother to open the links. Anything is possible if course. 

Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
jondg14
08 November 2014 20:59:17





Okay, I admit that does have a lot of potential but it is 10 days away and possibly with limited support. At least it provides a spark of interest for those looking for something wintry!

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


Its so different to the other runs this week I can't help thinking its an outlier, most of the other runs went for a -ve AO and +ve NAO which is why I didn't see much potential. This one went crazy negative on both! It has to be an outlier.... right?



Originally Posted by: some faraway beach 


Yes. 


 


Sort of off topic, but we don't need to lock topics at 20 pages anymore as we used to. Just in case anyone was wondering. 


Originally Posted by: Matty H 


Turns out the answer may be No.


The ECM 240hrs mean is the same pattern as the op:


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=1&type=1&archive=0


Op for comparison:


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeleecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0


Originally Posted by: Quantum 

It will take cross model agreement at +72 before I even bother to open the links. Anything is possible if course. 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Intra-model consistency would be a good start let alone inter-model.


There's plenty to amuse ourselves with though even if it is very, very early days.

White Meadows
08 November 2014 21:34:03
Has anyone got a link to ECM ukmo and Gfs output all from the same page? Hungry Tiger used to post the link repeatedly last season.

As for today's ecm, many on here should have learned not to get their tally-whackers burned!!
nsrobins
08 November 2014 21:54:00




Okay, I admit that does have a lot of potential but it is 10 days away and possibly with limited support. At least it provides a spark of interest for those looking for something wintry!

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Its so different to the other runs this week I can't help thinking its an outlier, most of the other runs went for a -ve AO and +ve NAO which is why I didn't see much potential. This one went crazy negative on both! It has to be an outlier.... right?



Originally Posted by: Matty H 


Yes. 


 


Sort of off topic, but we don't need to lock topics at 20 pages anymore as we used to. Just in case anyone was wondering. 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Should we mention the WOI too? 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Didn't the WOI go into receivership, or was that the MFI?


Looks like something or someone has hacked into the ECM server and corrupted the data feed for the second OP in a row.
Anyone seen Pressuti lately?

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Chiltern Blizzard
08 November 2014 22:04:32
Very interesting ECM - if it evolves like that the final 3rd of November could be very wintry!
Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
John p
08 November 2014 22:34:13

Has anyone got a link to ECM ukmo and Gfs output all from the same page? Hungry Tiger used to post the link repeatedly last season.

As for today's ecm, many on here should have learned not to get their tally-whackers burned!!

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


It was probably the link to my pages. The hosting expired and I didn't bother renewing, but did put similar pages together here which I use everyday for a simple quick flick through the runs


http://jpwxcharts.blogspot.co.uk/2014/02/ecm.html

Camberley, Surrey
ITSY
08 November 2014 23:14:40

Can anyone provide links or info on the ECM ensembles? The KMNI graph seems to be stuck on the last 00Z output

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