Yes very unsettled and very wet with a southerly tracking jet.

Some interesting runs though but with very little in the way of proper cold heading in our direction yet.

Just GFS setting to default Brian.

For one run though, that was quite a change towards the end of the reliable and do wonder if a different signal may be being picked up. As ever more runs.......

Comments/agendas in this thread are annoying me already. And it's only November. Maybe it's my hangover 😉. 

Another very interesting run. 

I think think it's extremely likely now we're going to be getting an easterly drift of some type in the 96/120 onwards timeframe. 

Drier and generally mild would be the general theme IMO, with lots of cloud and clag in the east. 

The prospects longer term look excellent.. At the moment. I'd much much rather be looking at charts like this than a raging polar vortex. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3601.gif

You mean at this point

Hear hear.

The outlook is very interesting but at the moment I'm not seeing anything like the cross model consistency we saw in November 2010. That suggests the variables are significantly different.  We could be heading for a decent cold outbreak but I don't see it as the most likely outcome yet. 

Hi Brian,

Thats exactly what I wanted to ask you.

I remember very well in 2010 you kept on mentioning the rock solid output in the NWP.  At what time in 2010 did the first signs start emerging from your memory and if at all when did they all start aligning together, Did the UKMO join the consistency later than the other models or was it leading the way like ECM seems to be doing now?  

Essentially I am asking did it take a bit of time for the output to become aligned and then consistent?

Also do you remember if the UK Met office were hinting at the cold that struck us from a long time before or not?

Speaking from memory I think in 2009 the GEFS picked up the transition to cold almost at the edge of its range. A journalist spoke to me 10 days before the cold arrived and I was confident enough then to be quoted on the likelihood of a wintry spell. In 2010 the ECM32 dayer picked up the cold pattern a long way ahead and the GEFS was onboard I think quite close to the edge of its range. At the moment I'd not want to be quoted saying a freeze is looking likely even after consuming copious quantities of London Pride.  

I hear you loud and clear, very confusing comments on the forums at the moment

I'm only telling you what I'm seeing from the numerical models and factoring in past experience. Other people on the forums may well be looking at the state of the strat more as well as other factors. That's fine but not something I would want to rely on. My interest would be higher if the ECM 15 - 32 day ensemble was pointing towards a cold blocked outlook. At the moment it clearly isn't as the MetO monthly forecast makes no mention of the possibility. The next ECM 32 day ensemble could show something very different of course. At the moment the mode of the GEFS at day 16 is I think probably quite similar to the ECM with low pressure to the west or south west of the UK which is then favoured to continue for the rest of the 32 day period.

From scanning through the 12z output, I'm struck by a few key developments:

• GFS has adjusted the jet south, in fact far enough to suffice for a notable cold outbreak if the blocking in the mid-Atlantic is strong enough.   It fails to manage this on the 12z op run but the jet adjustment is encouraging.
  
  


• UKMO has come into line with GFS and ECM regarding the strong push of heights into Greenland from Scandinavia days 5-6.
  
  


• The 12z GFS op run has a strong LP development in the Arctic Ocean north of Siberia on day 5, which has no support from GFS or UKMO, JMA and GEM.
  
  GFSP goes on to draw the low heights in Canada towards the pole, preventing the build of high pressure to the north of the UK shown on the majority of the 12z output.
  
  The ECM 12z op run of 8th November (yesterday) had this feature, but it didn't have anything like the same effect, due to a strong split of the polar vortex taking place. Clearly ECM viewed the process behind the split as strong enough to overcome the Arctic Ocean trough, whereas GFSP currently does not. ECM dropped the feature on its 00z op run but GFSP has been going with it on and off for a few days now.
  Another standoff between the two models over a critical detail! 

Clearly there's a long way to go until we can be sure what path will be taken beyond the soggy week ahead.

Speaking of which, I'm about to do a separate post here on the rainfall event from later tomorrow through to some time on Wednesday, which looks like throwing down a lot of water across central parts.

I think i may have phrased my comment wrongly.  I understand what you are saying and I wait for your nod before I take other output from posters seriously, not saying what they are writing is not confusing me.  

Personally I think things are interesting, but that nobody is sure it will directly impact The UK in a cold way. Yet

The 12z GFS Op Run On The Monday-Wednesday Stalling Frontal Systems Event

Okay, so Monday evening and the first part of the following night sees some heavy precipitation move in from the southwest, perhaps grazing the south coasts of Cornwall and Devon, but it could of course track further north or south than shown.

This band of precipitation then grinds to a quite sudden halt over central parts of the UK, and slowly but surely fizzles out through to noon Tuesday. It's the persistence of the rain that looks to count here, along with any embedded convective features, which GFS often seems to overlook to a fairly large extent. To be fair, even the higher resolution models often fall well short as well.

GFS then shows a rinse and repeat with the second frontal system, except that it stalls a little further west, and looks a bit less active. You can see both frontal boundaries in evidence on the left of the above charts (for 9pm Tuesday). It all eventually fades away by Wednesday afternoon, though with some residual showers around.

A break Thursday daytime is then followed by another round of stalling, pivoting frontal systems Thursday night onward.

Whether the Mon-Wed event brings severe accumulations or not will depend on to what extend embedded convective activity is involved. On the face of it, the GFS 12z goes for 10-30 mm with the highest totals to the west of the Solent region, but I can see how totals could easily be 5-10 mm higher with added convection.

I do think we need to give it a few more days as the interesting & complex NH pattern is making the models go a bit crazy. I think by Weds/Thurs we will have a better idea going ahead.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014110918/gfsnh-1-300.png?18

Some blues starting to invade the UK

aye

cant shake the thought though, that (was it you who mentioned this last night?) this will end up with us under a stubborn cell of HP? leading to 2 weeks of fog and frost.  whilst Germany gets thrown into winter wonderland.

Still all a month early IMO, nice to see something different though

Looks like its 50/50 for a decent cold outbreak in the next couple of weeks.

Matt Hugo Twitter

Place your bets!... 27 out of 51 12Z EC ENS members support a cold NE'ly by the 19th, 24 support an unsettled Atlantic SW'ly influence.

As a Mean this is pretty good.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.html