My interpretation of all this is that we will eventually see a cold spell at the very least, but we are going to have to wait for it. In 2010 the atlantic started to stall on the 16th or 17th. 

The subsequent situation of psedo-cold easterlies is quite similar:

And it took until the 24th for proper cold to arrive:

The transition from southerly blocking to northerly blocking seems somewhat slower, so the absolute earliest we can expect a cold incursion is on the 21st but realistically it could be up to a week longer. 

If you're right we should be starting to see some dippers appearing on the GEFS but there's still nothing of note on the 6z suite.  

One thing that leaves me cold (pun intended) about all this strat talk is that it isn't an external forcing mechanism which the NWP doesn't model. 

Both are having a very hard time and at  panic to resolve the issue of hights into Europe I look daily and neither at the moment are not very sure at all something seems to be worry them a lot we must get on the cold side of the jet to have a chance.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

we want to see something like this soon the charts at the moment seemed to be a right **ick tease for me at the moment.

Not necessarily soon Polar Low. For some of the best interpretation of the longer-range prospects that I've read, here's a post from early this afternoon on the other site by Tamara, a very well informed contributor over there. I hope she doesn't mind me quoting her here:

This pretty much summarises what I've been trying to put together during the past few days, except for the temporary transition to less negative AO prior to a strong rebound, which I can recall coming across a year or two ago but had since forgotten.

One crude way to gauge blocking quality is to watch that 552 line on the 500mb height maps. If it just touches greenland its borderline, half way across is promising, and all of greenland you know something good is on the way!

The latest GFS output is toying about with the idea of a blocked pattern over the UK at the low res end of the run. Okay, it is too early to think about getting proper cold and snow out of it and even that is a long way off in forecasting terms (one of many runs), but anything to keep the volatile Atlantic at bay will be most welcomed.

Anyone for a Spanish Plume?

I've just moved some posts regarding the Met Office contingency planners preliminary probability outlook to the 'Winter 2014/15' thread where they will be more at home 

The GFS 12z op run has increased the amount of rain across the SW'rn third of the UK from the current Mon-Wed event, and adds a large amount to the Thursday-Saturday event due to the low pressure system disrupting more than on previous runs, which stalls the front more readily and then has it pivoting towards a SE-NW alignment while waves of wet weather run up along it - much like the current event, but perhaps more energetic in nature... in other words delivering even larger rain totals.

The Met Office weather warnings cover this pretty much perfectly, suggesting they were at least one step ahead of the GFS 12z op run.

If only it was January 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2014111012/gfsnh-0-186.png?12

Still mild with any cold air a million a miles away

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2014111012/gfsnh-9-180.png?12

The majority of the model output now indicates that the blocks aren't likely to fall into the right place this month for a cold, snowy period in the UK. This is hardly surprising, given that even those few runs with particularly impressive blocking in the right sort of places have struggled to produce such conditions away from Scotland.

On the plus side, this run allows a decent mid-latitude block to provide dry conditions to much of the UK days 10-16, and this has been an emerging trend recently thanks to the Atlantic jet looking to remain fairly weak even as the polar vortex gathers itself.

This is the relaxation of the -ve AO state that Tamara was detailing earlier today. I would not be surprised to see this gain some ground for the Nov-Dec transition period.

Im not so sure.  Ive spoke before about looking for patterns that repeat themselves and often are present in the autumn into winter months.  as the post a bit further up mentions - if only it was January.  Wouldnt be surprised to see this pattern repeat itself in another 4 weeks, with a bit more cold air involved.  which for me, would be ideal in advent.

I somehow doubt though that it'll be as mild again as it was on Halloween. The HP over the continent looks to me to be located a bit further north on that run that was the case in late October.

The GFS and UKMO are able to get the idea going for 144hrs and it's up in the AIR searching for clues after that.

Large UK and Mid-N and Central N and E N Atlantic Persistant Area of Combined Low's as a Major Low, we get mild and with spells of rain some heavy with some dry sunny areas and spells of sun, with scattered heavy showers as well, Winds from South and SW mostly.

Right in to Sat/ Sunday the coming weekend.

What they do later (Following Week).

The Current Low will move East SE with UK weather turning to Ridges of High P. With Far N and NW Atlantic seeing return to Low Pressure move on a more Arctic SW and S side tracking.

😃💦💭

Hopefully. I'll take those temps on the chart Brian has posted. A bit less rain wouldn't go a miss. 

Perhaps mrs T is a little late in her thoughts< James dont right off November just yet

Good heavens, frost as far south as the Florida Panhandle & Tex-Mex border  surely some records to be broken

BBQ's at the ready!

  or this 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=6&ech=312&mode=0&carte=1

Don't be fooled though Brian ( doubt you are ) single digit temps I should think

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn26417.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014111012/ECH1-216.GIF?10-0

Fog and Frost

Seasonal at least

I can live with that Marcus- hopefully some good useable dry weather in the offing 

Wouldn't disagree with that Jacko , a decent end to the Autumn........hopefully

North Atlantic Oscillation  showing signs of a going into negative so easterly winds will become more likely. Quite a dip in early Feb but that is a long way off. The negative around the 19 th  of Nov shows a cooling down , but not real cold.