Hello folks,

Here's the week ahead forecast video: http://www.gavsweathervids.com/forecasts.html

Here's the traditional Written Thoughts: http://www.gavsweathervids.com/written.html

Quite a complicated set-up on the way for the coming week so confidence isn't great.

Have got a LOT of updates on the way this weekend. Terry Scholey's mid November to mid December forecast will be with you around 5pm.

Tomorrow I'll have the seventh winter 14/15 update + The CFS Six month look-ahead.

Will post all the updates here so keep a look out. 

Thanks to you all for your on going support and to Brian and the Mods for making it all possible.

EDIT: Here's Terry Scholey's mid November to mid December forecast: http://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html

EDIT 2: Here's the seventh winter 14/15 update: http://www.gavsweathervids.com/nao14-15.php

thanks gav great vid, thanks for terrys forecast, look forward to that,  cheers buddy,  

Cheers Gav

Thanks guys!

Thanks Gavin

The models are all over the place at the moment so not surprised your confidence is low. That might be indicative of a pattern change starting to show up towards the end of the month which is difficult to get a handle on at the moment.

Terry is certainly going for a period of significant contrasts in the weather for the first half of December with some relatively mild weather but also some really quite cold weather.

I think we have to wait another week or so to see how things develop and whether a trend starts to appear in the models. Probably lots of chopping and changing between now and then which should be taken with a pinch of salt. But this time next week we may have a clearer picture of whether we are likely to see a significant change from the persistent mild conditions we have been very used to.

Thank you Gavin. Shall enjoy whatever the weather is..

Thanks guys!

GW, notice models have backed off the easterly ideas this morning. More backwards and forwards.

OK, here's the seventh winter 2014/15 update video:

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/nao14-15.php

Looking at ENSO, Solar, Siberian snow cover, analogues, etc...

Enjoy!

Will have the CFS Six Month-Look-Ahead (JFF) this afternoon.

Excellent video Gav

Cheers

Thanks Gavin for a very interesting update as always

Looks like you might have your work cut out for your forecast at the end of the month with most of the synoptic forecasts going for mild but the pattern matching pointing to cold

Thanks guys!

Will the CFS Six Month look-Ahead video make things any clearer?

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/catchup.html

It's the CFS so what do you think? 

Remember, this one really is JFF.

Cheers Gav

Hopefully January might deliver ??

Hi Gav, when will the next look at the JMA take place? I'm very interested in the next update to see if your going for a shift towards a Cold Dec for Western Europe 

^^^^^^^

Thanks both!

Just to say have added the seventh winter 14-15 update to the winter updates page and given it it's own little written summary for those that can't watch the vid;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/nao14-15.php#here

Thanks to all for your support with these updates. Getting very close to the actual forecast now.

Thanks Gav, it's a long video so will watch whilst eating my dinner tonight 

I think I got a bit carried away with this one!  33 minutes is too much.

BTW, regarding JMA, the next month ahead forecast will be Friday - #JMAFriday.

The next seasonal JMA update, covering Jan to Mar will be next month.