HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 19TH 2014.
NEXT UPDATE THURSDAY NOVEMBER 20TH 08:00
THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weakening front will kove slowly NE across England and Wales later today and tonight.
MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Slowly becoming windier and more changeable next week and beyond with rain or showers and strong winds at times moving down from the NW.
THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Ensemble forecast continues to show the large High pressure block over Europe continuing to divert the Jet Stream both North and South of the UK over the next 5-7 days. Very gradually the flow becomes more direct to lie over or near to the South or North of the UK late in Week 2.
GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning continues to show High pressure over Eastern Europe continuing to affect the UK in one form or another over the next few weeks. For the most parts the attacks from the Atlantic are half hearted or thwarted as fronts come up against the block and while delivering some rain for all at times there will be some drier spells too with average temperatures as a result. For a period though through the start of Week 2 a more powerful Low pressure area is shown to pull SE across the UK with rain and gales for all as well as some snow on hills in the North as a temporary wedge of colder air accompanies the Low.
THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run is broadly similar to the operational this morning with much Low pressure disruption near the British Isles through Week 2 delivering a lot of rain and showers for all in temperatures turning rather chilly at times with snow on northern hills. The High pressure over NE Europe does become more favourable in position at times to deliver the chance of colder air from the East too.
THE GFS ENSEMBLES The GFS Ensembles also shares the view of the above model runs with a trend to a more deeply unsettled spell in Week 2 before it shows a rise of pressure from the SW late in the period with cold and frosty plus foggy conditions possible towards the end of the period.
UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure developing in 4-5 days across the UK with dry and bright weather with frost and fog at night the most likely scenario towards the beginning and middle of next week following some rain over the start of the weekend.
THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a complex frontal system towards the weekend becoming slow moving across SE Britain while pressure rises strongly over the North and West. Occasional rain crossing the UK looks like becoming slow moving near the SE at the weekend before the quiet, colder and perhaps frosty weather develops by the start of the new week.
GEM GEM too shows the High pressure across the UK early next week before it become displaced to the East and allows Low pressure to sink down and develop as a complex system around the UK later delivering spells of rain and showers in temperatures close to or a little below average with some snow possible on Northern hills.
NAVGEM NAVGEM this morning shows the rain at the weekend disappearing as High pressure ridges up from the SW. The rest of the run shows a mild period with basically SW winds and some rain in the NW while many others become dry and rather cloudy.
ECM ECM this morning takes the road towards a slow decline in conditions from the NW through next week and the weekend as the rain clears this weekend to give a drier and colder period with some frosts likely before cloud, wind and rain become more dominant from the NW from midweek with a wet and windy spell looking most likely by the end of the run and beyond. Temperatures look like being close to or maybe a little below average at times and some snow on Northern hills is possible at times later as a result.
THE ECM ENSEMBLES The Ensemble run continues to show an ever deepening trough aross the UK by Day 10 powered by a deep Low likely to lie somewhere close to the NW of the UK at that point with spells of wind and rain or showers as a result in average temperatures.
NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend seems to be for a slow decline in conditions across the UK towards more Atlantic driven weather under Low pressure later next week and beyond.
MY THOUGHTS Today's output continues to show a slow decline into more unsettled conditions later next week as the benign and stagnant weather of present mostly due to a High pressure block to the East recedes. The models though still show some resistance from the block to the East even then and as a result steers deep and developing Low pressure down across the UK from the NW. This of course means plenty of wind and rain at times for the UK and with some polar maritime air getting into the mix at times later temperatures would likely be average at best and perhaps a little below at times with some snow on higher elevations of the North. There is still little evidence shown of any major dip into cold weather with the most likely option shown currently that Low pressure to the NW is likely to remain dominant until at least the end of this morning's outlook period with wind and rain at times for all as a result. I will note that although this is the consensus shown this morning High pressure remains over Eastern Europe even at the extremities of the run and at some point in the future it may position itself more favourably to deliver cold to the UK on an Easterly flow but patience is going to have to be administered until later in the season and other building blocks align in better positions than shown at present.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset