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Gavin P
  • Gavin P
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
29 November 2014 14:40:17

Hello folks,


Here's the week ahead forecast video: http://www.gavsweathervids.com/forecasts.html


Here's the written Thoughts: http://www.gavsweathervids.com/written.html


High pressure building in - Frost and fog "early and late" perhaps?


Tomorrow I've got the final winter 2014/15 seasonal model round-up video + A very short "sneak peek" for Spring on my Blog.


Will post all the updates here, so keep checking back. 


EDIT 1: Here's the final seasonal model round-up video for Winter 2014/15: http://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter15v3.php


EDIT 2: Here's Terry Scholey's December month ahead forecast: http://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html


http://www.gavsweathervids.com 


 


 


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
idj20
29 November 2014 15:14:23

Cheers as always, Gavin. Fog risk aside, it should be a fairly uneventful week for me speaking as an amateur forecaster under the name of The Cloud Master where I cover Kent.


Folkestone Harbour. 
ARTzeman
29 November 2014 16:15:18

Thank you Gavin.   A beginning of a winters tale....






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
schmee
29 November 2014 17:03:13
Thanks Gavin. ☺
Observations from around GUILDFORD in SURREY and now Nottingham
Dougie
30 November 2014 02:46:17

Thanks Gavin


Ha'way the lads
Gavin P
  • Gavin P
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
30 November 2014 10:07:32

Thanks guys!


Ahead of tomorrows winter forecast here's the final seasonal model round-up video for winter 2014/15;


 


Looks at ten long range seasonal models to see what they are showing for the winter.


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Gooner
30 November 2014 11:39:50

Good vid Gav


Some mixed messages there


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


tallyho_83
30 November 2014 12:06:27
Thank you Gav - very informative ...lot's to take in! Still some uncertainty though! Time will tell.
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Gavin P
  • Gavin P
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
30 November 2014 12:29:25

Thanks both!


Yep, the models are VERY conflicting and that's like all the other things I look at as well.


Very mixed messages and it's certainly NOT an easy winter to forecast this one.


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Solar Cycles
30 November 2014 13:18:29


Thanks both!


Yep, the models are VERY conflicting and that's like all the other things I look at as well.


Very mixed messages and it's certainly NOT an easy winter to forecast this one.


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

Lol, I sense a MetO probabilites forecast could be the way forward, that way you can't be wrong either way.😜

Gavin P
  • Gavin P
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
30 November 2014 15:04:40

^^^^^


Hey Gavin.


Spring updates will just be once a month, not the weekly stuff I've been doing through autumn.


Here's the afternoon's Blog update;


Spring 2015 "sneak peek"



Just to get us ready for long range updates from next month.


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
nsrobins
30 November 2014 18:04:28

Very good video as usual Gavin.
I'm guessing you might be going for a winter of 'two halves' perhaps, with the greatest potential for cold spells developing in February?


Looking forward to the forecast tomorrow


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Gooner
30 November 2014 18:19:40

A cold snowy spring it is then


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gavin P
  • Gavin P
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
30 November 2014 22:17:54


Very good video as usual Gavin.
I'm guessing you might be going for a winter of 'two halves' perhaps, with the greatest potential for cold spells developing in February?


Looking forward to the forecast tomorrow


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


I couldn't possibly comment...


Thanks everyone.


Just to say the third seasonal model round-up video now has it's own page with a little written summary;


http://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter15v3.php


Final forecast tomorrow evening, we should also have Terry Scholey's December forecast as well tomorrow.


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Gavin P
  • Gavin P
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
01 December 2014 13:08:45

Hi all,


Mild or cold December? Can anything stop 2014 being warmest year on record?


Here's Terry Scholey's December forecast;


http://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html


Winter 2014/15 forecast ahead this evening.


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
lanky
01 December 2014 14:16:03


Hi all,


Mild or cold December? Can anything stop 2014 being warmest year on record?


Here's Terry Scholey's December forecast;


http://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html


Winter 2014/15 forecast ahead this evening.


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


The temperature in December could


(4C or less in fact)


 


 


 


Martin
Richmond, Surrey
Gavin P
  • Gavin P
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
01 December 2014 19:03:18

Here we go then, the final and official Winter 2014/15 Seasonal Forecast video;


http://www.gavsweathervids.com


 


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Frostbite80
01 December 2014 19:32:24


Here we go then, the final and official Winter 2014/15 Seasonal Forecast video;


http://www.gavsweathervids.com


 


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

Thanks Gavin an interesting winter ahead I feel smile

sriram
01 December 2014 19:50:24

Thanks Gavin

Should see more snow than last year for sure

Many thanks for all your hard work through the autumn to lead upto this - with all your contributions much appreciated by everyone for sure

Regards Sriram


Sriram
Sedgley, West Midlands ( just south of Wolverhampton )
162m ASL
Gavin P
  • Gavin P
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
01 December 2014 21:13:55

Thanks all,


Final update - Just to say, the forecast now has it's own page with an extensive written summary;


http://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter14-15.php


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
01 December 2014 23:05:43

Thanks Gavin.


I tend to agree with your general assessment of the situation. There are definitely conflicting signals this year which suggests regular battles between warm and cold are quite possible. The first half of winter likely to be close to average I think with a greater chance of more general colder weather later in the winter and quite possibly extending into March.


Should make for some interesting weather for us to comment on but potentially quite different to the very mild, stormy and wet conditions of last year.

Dougie
02 December 2014 01:33:04

A good call Gavin, you could well be right.


Lots to keep us interested over the coming weeks, and it will be fascinating to see how winter finally plays out.


Ha'way the lads
ErghKommol
02 December 2014 16:13:50

Thanks Gavin.


 


A little bit of everything then, that will do fine after last winter thanks very much :)

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