Missed that , who was it ??

Fantastic! That really improves the odds of getting a decent cold spell.

Dew points looking fine for quite a few of us Sunday night. Some places may get a surprise who knows.

They may be right. There again, I'm sure they made a similar prediction for the 2009/10 winter, and that one turned out to be the coldest in the UK for about 30 years.

Subtle difference at T+132 as the Azore High links with the rising heights in thr Canadian Arctic to cut off the train of low pressures exiting the eastern Seaboard.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1321.gif

Encouraging

So he is a news reporter then?

That looks a little better energy to our far n/west and Canada is held up a little longer

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=138&mode=0&carte=1

Met office app on my phone is certainly suggesting light snow sunday night here. Mind you, normally 'light snow' means 'a few flakes'.

wow - GFS takes a promising turn at 153hrs, with more of a northerly developing and the atlantic is shutdown (temporarily?)

Reason for being a wow - BBC talked of something like this happening a few days ago which didnt show on the charts. Wil lbe interesting if this change in Jet engages with the siberian HP and encourages an easterly ... lets see how the rest rolls out.

Surprised there has been no mention of GFS 12z:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1561.gif

Anyone think that looks zona?

Dat 552 isopleth:

Things are finally getting interesting. 

Better.

It looks as if the PV is finally taking a hit and shifting towards Scandinavia.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1621.gif

haha literally 3 people post the same chart... ironic :)

edit: make that 4 haha.... great minds think alike!

Meto 12z not looking too shabby either:

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014120512/UW120-21.GIF?05-17

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014120512/gfsnh-0-168.png?12

December 12th and already a better Winter than last year

According to M Hugo there are Data shortages in this run, be interesting to see what ECM delivers

it was Matt Taylor. Been on news all day. Back on topic and the gfs 12z shows a northerly with snow showers for here next friday onwards

A much better run.

Notice how as the PV migrates towards Scandinavia we draw the cold air directly from the Greenland and Arctic ice sheet rather than have it modified by 2000 miles of atlantic ocean.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1742.gif

Pretty close to lake condtions far North    Q ?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=180&mode=0&carte=1

Could go either way at this stage, 552 has only just reached greenland. Would ideally like to see it half way. But very promising, the first time 552 has got to greenland in weeks. 

At the end of high res now but the atlantic is still blocked off with a direct arctic northerly by that stage.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1861.gif

At face value its more than enough. For those that are interested, here are some golden lake effect rules. Take the upper (850hpa) temp and subtract from the sea surface temp. In general the bench marks apply:

Note lake effect can be rain if its not cold enough!

13C: Light snow flurries possible

15C: Scattered light snow showers, isolated moderate snow showers.

17C: Moderate snow showers, occasionally frequent, isolated heavy snow showers.

19C: Moderate or heavy snow showers, often frequent

21C: Heavy snow showers often merging to persistent heavy snow. Isolated thunderstorms.

23C: Very heavy snow, thunderstorms likely. 

That chart is about 17C. 

Just to clarify do you mean:

(sea surface temp) - (850hpa temp)

So if sea surface temp is 15 deg C, and the 850hpa is -6, then it is (15) - (-6) = 15 + 6 = 21?