I think there might be some flooding on the 13th.....

Not in Banbury , 5cm of snow

J F F

Again no sign of northern blocking. Beyond the potential brief northerly next weekend, it looks like the Azores high will return to its normal position. Yes, its better than this time last year, but unless you live in Scotland I cant see anything wintry

Forecast shows 14cm if I'm reading it right?  Of course JFF

A lazy post IMO. 

Yes I appreciate you're a southern fairy, but check out the latest forecast for Buxton, England. It presents a very wintry picture. 

Wintry for brief period before westerly based zonality returns. There is no northern blocking on the horizon which is the only way for a sustained cold spell and for us southerners to get any snow

Again, another lazy post.

The outlook as it currently stands is a predominately WNW'ly based zonal picture with amplication of the Azores High into the mid Atlantic.

This setup in itself can bring wintry conditions to hills in England, as well as surprise snowfalls to lower levels too on occasion.

This is not a Scotland - only situation, and it certainly won't be if the 06z GFS verifies.

I don't appreciate you using the term Southern Fairy you Northern Monkey named after a failed clothing brand 

Anyway, next Saturday I might venture Westwards slightly  

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=rart&HH=180&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

hahahaah :D

Only referring to Beast ;-)

Anyway I forget I'm not an admin anymore so I should probably wind my neck in. 

No argument with that.

Surprise would be an massive understatement. I've never experienced as much as a single snowflake IMBY where the "Risque neige" is 10% or less which is what is showing at the moment.

Dropped to 60% risk now for IMBY Monday morning. Was 90% on yesterdays 12z.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2014120606/graphe6_1000_250_40___.gif

Quite agree, away from Northern hills it looks poor for prolonged wintry weather prospects. AZ HP still a dominant player.

Yes the projected setup is certainly not likely to result in a snow fest for East Anglia that's for sure. 

These WNW'ly setups always place the emphasis on Western and Central Scotland, Northern Ireland and NW England.

I think (as ever) Gibby's analysis sums things up perfectly today - I do think there is room for cautious optimism.

Spot on! December 2011 gave plenty of lowland England some snow. You wouldn't have necessarily expected it from first glance at the charts...

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2011/archives-2011-12-14-12-0.png

A broadly similar set-up to Xmas Day 2004, which delivered us a festive 3-4cm deep mix of snow and snow pellet early afternoon (and a plunging temp as the skies cleared in the evening - the roads turning to sheets of ice)

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2004/Rrea00120041225.gif

Especially for the Azores 

We wont get much rain here, let alone any snow from this set up. 

For the majority, some patchy frost, is the most wintry weather, we will see in the next week or so.

On the cool side ,but not very cold Some precipitation there so probably snow on the hills.

The charts are looking typical December fare to me. Wintriness in the north and on the mountains, wind, rain, showers, hail, temps close to average. At least we should be getting some interesting weather after a very dull 3 weeks or so!

Looking at the ensemble means and anomalies I don't see much sign of widespread proper cold-snow this side of Christmas. The most likely route for a cold snap looks to be a northerly toppler or perhaps a more sustained northerly from a mid-Atlantic high. The setup doesn't look conducive to an Ely/NEly anytime soon.

We are very close to something interesting here, look where the magic 552 line is:

Just slightly further north and we have ourselves a greenland block!

is there a planned transfer to the unfancied Greenland in the offing LOL ??

UKMO goes for a northerly at 144 hrs.  Not hugely cold or long lived I expect but a northerly.

One never knows.

brief but potent cold snap from ECM. Unfortunately no sign of pressure building in the right places