It's going way out into FI territory I know, but the GFS 00z run seems to indicate a fairly potent northerly plunge occuring just before Xmas right at the end of the run. I don't think anything can be ruled out at the moment for the latter part of December.

Bit of an IMBY post, but just what IS it about gale force winds and night time for around here? (Note the 10m wind speeds in the early hours of Tuesday morning due to a passing active frontal system and again in the early hours of Friday morning courtesy of what looks like a secondary low passing over us): http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=EGMD 

Okay, it isn't anywhere near the levels of last Winter's and the whole weather pattern is somewhat different but I can't seem to shake off this sense of deja vu. Mind you, I have overlaid this morning and I tend to get all grumpy and pessimistic if I sleep too long.  

Indeed Ian.

Tuesday night and Thursday night are the ones to watch. Potentially quite nasty and worth keeping an eye on. 

6z GFS is now out in high resolution and continues the trend shown on last nights 18z and more generally the other 0z runs to pull the polar vortex back towards Greenland in a weeks time. The result for the UK is a milder and less volatile set up thereafter with continued but briefer polar maritime incursions in between a more general WSW'ly airflow. 

Agree a northerly plunge could take place around Xmas.However northerlies rarely deliver much in the way of snow to the southern part of the UK. 

Not sure it's been downgraded so much? It was virtually non-existent for many lowland areas, save for maybe a shower or two, and that hasn't changed. If anyone got excited on the back of one ECM op then more fool them, but I don't think anyone did. 

As for the other channel, problem is there you have several pro-snow forecasters who write elaborate posts about this or that could happen. The gullible ones get sucked in and misinterpret it or over enthuse about it, then when what was a slim chance anyway, eventually evaporates come the time, the likes of Ian Brown are there to troll and stir things up. Thank god we've eradicated them from here. 

In one small measure of wintriness things have actually improved this morning - GFS says there's now 20% chance of a snowflake IMBY in the early hours of Thursday.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=323&y=100

Whoo hoo

I can still think of one mild ramping troll...

(and no, I'm not talking about you)

I think the problem with the model rage is that people don't learn from the past, they jump on the back of every run and when they don't see what they want they fly into a rant. Then you get the newbies that probably read the board and see the word snow and the snow symbols posted and they run off and tell all there friends and family only for 12hrs later to have egg on the face when we are presented with flip flop weather.

There will always be cold & mild rampers & trolls.

And on that note the GEFS still keeping with the very very slim snow chance between the 11th and the 13th, it's been showing that for over 10days now to be fair for them dates.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=306&y=141&ville=Londres

Only minor changes on this morning's output unless you were looking at the charts in too much detail. The broad pattern is the same with the short to medium term having some chilly (and for some wintry) conditions, a period of very unsettled weather midweek and a probably brief but potentially potent blast from the north next weekend.

After that things continue to show a maritime influence with cooler and milder incursions...which is essentially the same as the last few days' output has shown.

Latest EURO4 snow fall accumulation chart, with some height it's looking good. I think Buxton will get a decent covering, with being just over 300m asl.

I do miss codge though. His ability to read charts totally differently from everyone was a sight to behold.

Ahem, Cough Cough. I miss you too 

But not the right codge.

Outlook for the next week or so is cold zonality after that maybe more TM in the mix but with next to no northern blocking at the moment we are doing pretty good IMO.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

Indeed, Joe.

One thing is for sure in my view, and that is the current model output generally is a thousand times better for those that crave for cold and possible snowfall that any model runs in the reliable timeframe that we saw throughout last winter. OK, what we are seeing isn't the "holy grail" for cold, but when we think back to last winter's endless rain and the model output we saw on a daily basis it puts things into perspective.

Agreed, been spoiled for cold weather in recent years

Its not just about craving cold, its just getting an air frost to kill off insects and bugs.  Just had my coldest night since November '13 and first morning frost since April '13.  Its great not to have 80mph wind gusts forecast weekly.  Its great not to have to worry about groundwater flooding and surface water flooding, lets not beat about the bush, last winter was awful and surely we will not have to tolerate its like again in the next 50 years.

Unlike last year I don't have to hide behind my study chair any longer.  These charts are cool.  Even cold on occasion. Also,  there is very little certainty beyond day 6 and anything could happen by the time Santa gets to work, I am expecting wide scatter in the ensembles beyond day 7.

WI

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn12017.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn14417.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn16817.gif

Friday , Saturday and Sunday look raw days

A mobile westerly signature with plenty of maritime air from polar and tropical climes.  Will be colder in the north, less cold in the south, huge uncertainty beyond day 6.

There will be a cold spell of some significance this winter - I am pretty sure of that.

London snow row reaches 8 for the first time tonight: