Hmmm, he seems to think that something may be afoot, even if the model output that we can see right now doesn't look wonderful.

Been looking at the lot a few do get interesting will have to wait and see.

Yes you are correct David

I disagree with your conclusion. The tweets I saw from IanF suggested the possibility of a more blocked picture and -NAO. I didn't see anything from him saying it was the most likely outcome. 

The other point here is the mythical MOGREPS which has become very fashionable. It is an NWP ensemble system. Probably marginally better than the GEFS, but not massively better. This is the nature of NWP now and there isn't a vast difference between the major models. I know some people find this concept difficult to grasp.

My suspicion is MOGREPS (like GEFS) has been showing some interesting synoptics at the edge of its range. I also quickly note that the MetO 32 dayer has consistently talked about close to or slightly above average temperatures through days 15 to 30. This leads me to believe that on balance MOGREPS and the European ENS do not (and have not) favour a major pattern change.

Whether the problem is that some people are hopecasting or don't understand probability I couldn't say. There is still plenty of time left for cold snaps this winter and the signals from the strat in the longer term may or may not favour this. 

Not been religiously following each run but the 12z ens does seem to have backed away a little bit from the milder scatter, with a cooler grouping showing later on quite consistently. Encouragingly it's a cooler grouping where the cool air is prolonged rather than the phantom cooler stuff that sometimes appears in zonal scatter.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png 

Be interesting if this is maintained over a few runs, rather less so if the 18z wipes it away again

Not sure what's going on with Brians ECM charts from T192 onwards so no idea what ECM FI looks like

i.e http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/ecm/192_mslp500.png 

Unless they've gone that colour because of all the snow 

I think you might be confusing IanF's excellently measured information with that of MVH's in past winters. The latter received some well justified criticism on here from Retron over his confusion between anomalies and actual heights on the extended 32-day ECM ensemble.

MVH took it rather badly.

IanF is a real professional and describes what's on  offer and nothing more.

And if you want to see what a mid-January freeze looks like, have a browse through the latest CFS offering:
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=714&mode=1&carte=0&run=10

Be quick though - it'll most likely be gone in a few hours

Those ensembles sure have gone the other way to the op runs today.

Funnily enough, a fair number of GEFS bring that Siberian High west and get the UK in on the act.

The one thing that can keep my interest levels above the snooze line 

Snow the other side of the Channel over the weekend.... who fancies a day trip, might be quicker to them mountains than our own 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=weas&HH=90&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

The snow misses out Southern England and Wales yet goes straight to France, Belgium and Holland etc! LOL

Oh well, - John Hammond still said there is a lot of uncertainty - the low could be centred further south or 100 miles further north.

Who is MVH?

BTW I did a crayloa Snow risk map (1st one of the season) in the short term thread. My interpretation is that its looking not really that great for snow, but could be much worse.

Yes pretty uninspiring this morning. 

Maybe our only hope is a SSW. And the best warming yet at 10hpa this morning.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=360&mode=10&carte=1

I never had any confidence about this winter in the first place. The default position for UK coldies should be one of anticipation - anticipation of disappointment. If the Euro slug takes hold, kiss goodbye to any decent weather this side of February. Stellar charts rarely if ever come to fruition, whilst the worst case scenario almost always does.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 10TH 2014.

NEXT UPDATE THURSDAY DECEMBER 11TH 20:00

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION An intense depression lies to the East of Iceland with a severe gale Westerly flow across the North and a less strong flow across the South. A wave depression approaches Western Britain from the Atlantic later tomorrow.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining changeable with rain at times especially across the North and West. Temperatures generally close to or a little above average but a few colder periods over the North when showers could turn wintry.

THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble forecast maintains the flow to the South of the UK for the next week blowing somewhat less strongly next week and easing slowly North to lie across the UK through week 2.

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning shows very little change in the overall pattern over the period of it's output this morning. Low pressure will continue crossing East to the North of Scotland bringing spells of rain alternating between spells of colder and more showery weather with snow on Northern hills. High pressure edges up closer to Southern Britain in week 2 with milder and less unsettled conditions for a time possible as a result more especially in the South.

THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run is very similar in Week 1 as the operational though in Week 2 it enhances further the trend towards mild and less wet conditions across the UK as High pressure takes up residence over Southern Europe steering mild and benign weather NE across the UK on the run up to Christmas with rain at times across the North and West.

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run also shows a similar pattern with it too replacing any cold injections with generally mild, less windy and occasionally wet conditions for a period of the second week before stronger and more deeply unsettled weather return towards the end of the run in strong Westerly winds.

THE GEFS ENSEMBLES The GEFS Ensembles are indicative that Low pressure to the North of the UK and High to the South and SW will be the dominant pattern over the whole period with occasional rain and showers over the UK with rather less cold weather overall as the incidence of tropical maritime air in association with Low pressure to the North increases across the UK.

UKMO UKMO today shows a flat but strong Westerly pattern across the UK at the start of next week between Low pressure to the East of Iceland and a strong Azores High pressure area remaining in situ. There will be spells of rain with some showery interludes with temperatures recovering to average values after the chilly weekend especially in the North.

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a strong and unstable Westerly flow across the UK ahead of a wave depression crossing East into the UK later tomorrow. As this clears winds turn to a cold NNW flow very briefly before a complex series of warm fronts over the Atlantic bring back breezy, milder and sometimes wet weather early next week.

GEM GEM in the short term shows the pattern of the majority of the output with regard to milder Westerly winds next week alternating with colder and chillier spells with showers before it drags Low pressure down the North Sea and into SE Europe allowing pressure to build across Scandinavia which then extends a cold ridge back across the UK delivering drier and cold weather with overnight frosts and fog as a result following a cold and showery period of weather later next week with wintry showers across the East and SE as this process takes place.

NAVGEM NAVGEM this morning shows windy weather continuing for the whole of the run with further Low pressure areas crossing a point to the North of Scotland at various occasions over the week, each bringing a spell of rain and followed by clearer and colder weather with sunshine and showers, wintry on the hills.

ECM ECM this morning shows a Westerly pattern maintained through it's duration this morning. After the cold blip for all this weekend milder air will flood east over Britain from the end of the weekend with some rain at times and any colder showery conditions only affecting the North on occasion before all reas see a reduction in rainfall and wind strength late in the period as High pressure to the SW edges ever closer towards SW Britain.

ECM ENSEMBLES This morning's Ensemble data has remained almost identical for days now making the chances of any major changes very remote indeed as confidence remains high that in 10 days time the UK will still be in the pattern of Low pressure to the North and High to the SW leaving the UK in an unstable Westerly flow with average temperatures and rain at times for all.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS Not any major shift in trend this morning with little or no sign of any major changes in the Westerly pattern other than the incidence of milder periods increasing with less in the way of polar maritime air affecting anywhere other than the far North of Britain later.

MY THOUGHTS It really looks like desperate times for those looking for any cold weather of note over lowland Britain anytime in the run up to Christmas with a locked pattern of High to the SW and Low to the far North unable to drag anything cold South meaningfully over the next few weeks. Instead we look to be increasingly fed maritime Westerly winds and a lot of cloud and occasional rainfall more especially across the North and West. There doesn't look to be any dramatic amounts of rain anywhere away from the far NW and indeed it may become drier across the South with time as that Azores High exerts even more influence towards Southern Britain later as the Jet flow edges back North somewhat later. With no building blocks at the needed locations to break us out of this pattern I'm afraid it looks very unlikely that any Christmas card scenes will greet any of us over lowland Britain over Christmas this year and the seek for cold goes on and looks as far away as ever at the term of all the output I've seen today taking us towards the end of the first third of Winter 2014. However, bear in mind my comments are borne on what is shown today and with Christmas still two weeks away there is time for change.

NOTE: I am unable to compile a report tomorrow morning due to work commitments but may post one on the 12z ones in the evening just for a change.

Could this be another wind event next Wednesday clipping the East? 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/00_177_windvector.png?cb=100

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2014/12/10/basis00/ukuk/uv10/14121706_1000.gif

I thought until a couple of days ago you were saying a cold spell was nailed on due to x, y or z? Now after a couple of iffy GFS runs you've switched to the 'winter is over' brigade? The Met Office 32 dayer and GEFS both continue to point to a close to average mid term outlook as they have for days and weeks. 

Having just had a quick look at this morning's runs. I see little if any indication from the models of the so-called "Euro slug" high taking hold any time in the near future. The GFS 00Z hints at something a bit like it in FI, but FI should never be taken too seriously in my view.

While I agree that the current runs are by no means great for coldies, we're no worse off than we were in the latter part of December 2012 and we all know how much the weather changed after the festive season of that winter.

Plenty of wiggle room in this system running in on friday:

But so far Lancashire looks in the firing line for snow.

Will be interesting to see any Met warnings today