I hope your optimism bears fruit - the Euro slug is not nailed down in any case -  I was simply pointing out that if that nasty beasty does make an appearance, it takes a nuclear bomb to shift it.

Interesting GFS 06z setting up nearly the perfect pattern

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014121006/gfsnh-0-324.png?6

A more interesting 06z this morning.

Into FI and Christmas eve sees some favourable pressure movement for our neck of the woods; large Siberian HP, UK high ridging into scandy and a large disturbance over the Med.

Shame it will all be blown away on the 12z

Brian - would you please bring back the Winter Optimism Meter

Yes I wouldn't be too downbeat as long as we keep seeing low pressure over Italy.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1801.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3241.gif

More like a winter rollercoaster if you ask me - the 06z certainly is an improvement on the 00z - will the improvement be maintained in the 12z? But when we get some decent runs, it does improve the WOM quotient on here.

...or that Scandi trough

I thought Winter Optimism Meter didn't sound right - it was the Winter Optimism Index.

I was funny seeing it bounce around more wildly than a fat bloke on a trampoline

Typical - the moment I tell my friends and interested parties on twitter and Facebook that it's going to be a Green Christmas the GFS ensemble suddenly starts showing a few cold scenarios around the big day.  Perhaps reverse psychology really does work on massive number crunching super-computers.  :)

The Law of Sod in full effect! It's usually the other way round - you tell friends & family of an upcoming cold/snowy spell, and the very next run sees the models back away from it. I was caught by that several times in the early days of TWO.

The problem is now I wait until all the models come into agreement and it's pretty much nailed on, but when I proudly announce it, everyone already knows because it's been on the BBC, radio, newspapers

Especially the newspapers, who in their race to get the BIG WEATHER STORY first will sometimes accidentally get it right.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-20-1-300.png?6

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-18-1-300.png?6

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-10-1-288.png?6

 A definite colder shift. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

I'll take a Peturbation 10 please Carol. 

I know what you mean Maunder and I don't disagree with what you say above. It could be that my optimism proves to be unfounded, but even though we are in the middle of a very unsettled atlantic period at the moment and the model output is not wonderful, I see no reason to believe that this winter is going to turn into a carbon copy of the disaster that was last winter.

One thing I don't understand tbh is why some people seem to put so much faith into the GFS runs on their own. I know that the GFS is one of the so-called "big three", but one thing I learned very soon after I first began to regularly follow the model runs back in 2005 was that what GFS shows is only one piece of the jigsaw. I still recall how it teased us with the mother of all easterly spells back in February 2007, which in the end proved to be a total red herring.

The problem with GFS it runs 4 times per day so has twice the chance of raising and dashing hopes. I think it's better to take just one run per day (in my case the 00z) and draw evaluations from that in comparison to the 00z of the previous day which is why I no longer do a report on the 12z. It has bore fruit in as much as it removes the glitz of individual runs that warp the mind of the overall picture so that you can better spot trend differences day to day rather than run to run.

I think the best way is to only look beyond a few days for trends. If you get several runs showing a similar evolution into FI, then you figure it may be onto something. If it's coming up with different evolutions run to run, then discount all of them; you'd have the same chance of forecasting right with a pin, a blindfold, and a printout of weather symbols.

I'd agree with this, when looking for trends it's usually better to work with a consistent set rather than try to find every single datapoint. It certainly helps to avoid the "IT'S GONNA SNOW" , "OH NOES WHERE'S THE SNOW GONE?" madness that develops during winter model watching season.

3 out of 23 isn't great odds, but it's the best we've had for a while.

At least the trend is in the right direction :)

if one picture could sum up what its like living in the wirral during the winter - this would be it... perfect

For those of you un aware. The Wirral is a peninsula just north west of chester, south and west of liverpool and east of north coast of wales.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirral_Peninsula 

It is. That's why when people ask my I tell them the best way to use the deterministics (many still struggle with ensembles) is to check their postcode forecast on 3 sites at regular intervals and look for trends. I usually recommend the Met Office as one plus 2 independents, hopefully one of which is TWO. This gives a good representation of the recent model runs.

The GFSP 12 is running this afternoon and available here:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

The GFSP 6z either kicked off late or didn't run today. 

I was just about to ask what's happened to the GFS 12z; it doesn't seem to have fully appeared on wetterzentrale yet, unusually. Must be slower than normal in appearing tonight.