http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014121606/gfsnh-0-138.png?6

A change already on the GFS

Aye- not too concerned with the LP overthe Uk at this time, im more interested in that HP exiting Canada en route to Greenland.  If that can be drawn a bit more east, it might be game on!

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014121606/gfsnh-0-264.png?6

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014121606/gfsnh-0-276.png?6

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014121606/gfsnh-0-288.png?6

Big changes as cold sweeps South

Doesn't last long but at least its a change

00z left and 06z right... that's about as big as changes at 5 days out can get really.

This change, along with the LP development to the SW that then causes problems, has to be viewed very skeptically 

GFSP is a bit more consistent (though still slightly faster with the LP days 5-6 than it's 00z effort) and ends up not far from the 00z ECM op run for day 9:

...but the LP in the western N. Atlantic is too far east and too strong for the cold to stick around, let alone gather some intensity. Upstream amplification may allow for a breakway low into the N. Sea and northerly as per the GFS 06z op but I'd rather that LP was less progressive i.e. more like the ECM 00z op has it.

Phew. Busy morning - time for a lie down I reckon 

Sorry, what Azores High? 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2281.gif

Great stuff from SC this morning.

the Para ends with a mega Greenland High. A prolonged cold spell there!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0&runpara=1&carte=1

GFSP ends on an interesting note:

A snowfest none the less, a shame it is so far out but this set up keeps getting picked up for just after Christmas

This would get a few of you in the NW moist over your Turkey and Stuffing.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs-para/royaume-uni/precipitations/222h.htm

We also have to be aware that we may still miss out if this ends up as a west based -NAO, which is what is being hinted at. All a long way out and lots more drama to come.

You should know better SC

you carry on then

One run and all that but this is starting to get into semi reliable territory. The Greenland High is becoming a consistent signal despite varying options.

I'm sitting up again and paying attention.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2641.gif

interestingly - GFS and GFSP both point to this scenario now, so growing confidence across two models at least.... just waiting for GEFS to play ball...

GEFS mean at 264hours now shows quite a marked pressure rise in Greenland.

Encouraging developments this morning.

quite funny, and also quite interesting.

check out Greenlands T2m creeping up around the end of the month. :)

Just put a small bet on Glasgow having a White Christmas - got 10-3 with BetFred. I must be mad.

You've ruined it now Saint.

6Z continues the trend of trying to inflate a greenland high.

Note the now more extensive yellows and oranges over Greenland. A trough in Scandinavia is also helpful to the overall effort, and indeed the GFS does go on to generate a monster Greenland high in FI, which it then promptly collapses! Ofc the fact that one is created is significant anyway. Note also the non-classical shape of the low in the west part of the Atlantic this is indicative of a jet stream that is weaker or significantly further north or south than usual. Again a sign that the pattern is shifting. The trends are pretty strong now, I think a cold spell sometime between xmas and the new year can be called with somewhat higher confidence than the range would usually allow.

Some colder air also starting to come into Scotland but nothing that impressive yet:

Hi all,

Here's today's video update:

JMA January To March 2015

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Some very interesting late winter signals from the Japanese and American models.

You know, that thought flashed through my mind before I hit 'send'