Not anything like the same scale as 1962/63 I know, but I'd personally settle for a repeat of 2012/13 myself. January 2013 saw a switch to a much drier and progressively colder pattern from the second week of the month onwards, which came after a festive season dominated by atlantic zonality. IIRC the model runs during the last few days of December 2012 were hinting that a change was on the way.

2013 was in many ways nearly as impressive as the big years 47,63,10 e.c.t. when march and early April is taken into account imo. The CET just kept dropping through the winter, I think it finally reached a low point on the 1st of April or something insane like that. But look at it this way 2010 was big December, 2013 was big March; are we overdue for a Big January? I mean there haven't been any (real) Big Januaries in over a century,  it is possible to get monthly CETs lower than -2, when was the last time that happened! 

It didn't have a CET as low as -2 or lower, but Jan 1979 was possibly the last January that was really wintry throughout the month. We haven't had a sub-zero CET January since then, although we've had s sub-zero CET December in 2010 (first one since 1890!) and a sub-zero CET February in 1986.

I'd be delighted if you were correct Saint as it would probo mean a White Xmas for me......

Some encouraging signs so far today, although maybe still a bit late for that particular bet but one never knows....

Cheers Gav

jan 63 is king Q

Apolgies yet again James sorry

January 1963 was the coldest month of the 20th century, and the coldest since January 1814, with an average temperature of −2.1°C.] Much of England and Wales was snow-covered throughout the month. The country started to freeze solid, with temperatures as low as −19.4 °C at Achany in Sutherland on the 11th. Freezing fog was a hazard for most of the country

In January 1963 the sea froze for 1 mile (1.6 km) out from shore at Herne Bay, Kent The sea also froze inshore in many places, removing many British inland water birds' usual last resort of finding food in estuaries and shallow sea. The sea froze 4 miles out to sea from Dunkirk, and BBC television news expressed a fear that the Strait of Dover would freeze across.[2] The upper reaches of the River Thames also froze over

Feb 63

A 36-hour blizzard caused heavy drifting snow in most parts of the country. Drifts reached 20 feet (6.1 m) in some areas and there were gale force winds reaching up to 81 mph (130 km/h). On the Isle of Man, wind speeds were recorded at 119 mph (191 km/h).

I like it when you arrive 

GEFS slowly building a snow row http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=306&y=141&ville=Londres

Stronger ridging out west and up to Greenland on the 12Z

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1741.gif

Jan 2010 was wintry for most of the month in these parts. The snowfall of the 4th left the deepest covering here in years. The subsequent freeze turned the snow hard, and it lasted on the ground well toward the end of the month (longest period of lying snow here since Dec 1981 IIRC)

I've seen worse Xmas Day charts. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2161.gif

The theme continues of a brief but sharpish cold plunge around Xmas Day/Boxing Day, then a return to mild(er) westerlies.

Dear me look who,s coming along the Channel

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=234&mode=0&runpara=1&carte=1

No Polar Bears please Brian white out conditions some s/eastern districts just for fun it cant happen can it ??.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=264&mode=0&runpara=1&carte=1

Just your average run of the mill snowstorm hitting us around xmas/ boxing day that is... nothing to see here.

 At 9 days range and beyond this is technically just for fun, but it reflects recent trends very nicely as LP is neatly into the North Sea by day 8 and LP to the SW is turned down, while the western N. Atlantic low is slower moving, allowing for a reasonable Greenland High and weak mid-Atlantic ridge:

Snow likely for the northern half of the UK on Christmas Day while Boxing Day could produce snow showers just about anywhere though The South could have to wait until evening. Taking this run at face value of course!

An interesting channel low followed by day 12/13 breakdown brought about by LP behaving quite strangely... far from convincing really.

It then finishes with what might be a nod to the ECM 12z control run of yesterday, as LP dives into Europe and the cold starts to think about coming back in from the NE or E (below-left):

Meanwhile the parallel GFS still brings through a bothersome LP from.he SW but while it delays the cold by two days, the outcome is more dramatic (above-right). The low goes on to invade Europe with the properly cold N'rly veering NE'rly and persisting to 29th December.

Apologies to mobile users for taking up so much space with a single GFS run well outside the reliable - I just couldn't resist as it's been so long since I got to stare at NWP output of this nature i.e. full of cold potential and some realisation from day 8 through to day 16 

I think the biggest development on these 12z GFS and GFSP runs is low pressure getting down into Europe in the later stages. It represents a big shift from the 'return of the extended Euro High' that kept cropping up over the past few days, and is the best way to extend the cold spell while setting up a decent pattern going into the New Year.

Definitely the highlight of the NWP watching so far this season - now will ECM trash the party? gulp

A quick glance at UKMO shows a day 6 setup that would go on to be closer to GFS than GFSP i.e. without the LP from the SW.

On that note, which would you rather have, GFS or GFSP? Cast your votes 

Yes, GFS has continued today with the same trend - pressure rising in the North Atlantic and Greenland driving cold air South over us. The 12z is another variation of that theme.

Interesting output but far too early to say with any certainty what's going to happen next week let alone after Christmas. We might get some transient Northerlys or something more potent. Will be fascinating to see how this unravels in the days ahead  

Things are definitely moving in the right direction now!

The Azores high looks to be almost completely displaced. There is colder air behind this too.

look at that little short wave in the flow gm 26th

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=228&mode=0&carte=1

Taps fingers and waits for someone to post a tweet from Ian F suggesting caution is needed