theweatheroutlook

Remove ads from site

doctormog
17 December 2014 22:07:27


OT  Apologies


 


D Bett talking about 24th / 25th & 26th ..........saying Xmas Eve likely to be the coldest day of the three with a return to Atlantic winds on Boxing Day


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


That seems a somewhat strange comment as the vast majority of model output I have seen do not support that scenario.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Russwirral
17 December 2014 22:11:01


 


That seems a somewhat strange comment as the vast majority of model output I have seen do not support that scenario.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 


Aye infact most are going for a direct opposite approach. 


Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Gooner
17 December 2014 22:11:50


 


That seems a somewhat strange comment as the vast majority of model output I have seen do not support that scenario.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Agreed , even comments on NW about the forecast


 


Very odd , unless the data they have is at odds with virtually all that we see

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
17 December 2014 22:18:08

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014121712/ECH1-216.GIF?17-0


This would fit  D Betts comment ??

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Whether Idle
17 December 2014 22:23:39


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014121712/ECH1-216.GIF?17-0


This would fit  D Betts comment ??


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Betts will be following a script 100%, based on expert interpretation.  He could be wrong.


At least  the model output warrants "potential colder weather"  discussion to be had, better than last year. We need to beware though, of the "dangling carrot" of the cold getting pushed back to deep FI.  When that happens its a sign of game over.


By the end of the weekend things will be clear, in the meantime some speculation to be enjoyed

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
hammer10
17 December 2014 22:26:37
He pulled that one out of the hat they must have a sweepstake and he won.lol.
Joe Bloggs
17 December 2014 22:26:54
18z GFS op looking great so far.

Really liking the blocking over Greenland.

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Russwirral
17 December 2014 22:33:35
At this stage Whether you are for and against - I think we are at the straw man stage. We're looking at the big pieces in the right places.

Looking at the 18z - the overall structure is very promising. Though im not sure about that LP in the mid-atlantic ~174 hrs. Will that scupper the GH?




Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Polar Low
17 December 2014 22:35:00

This is much better


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=192&mode=0&runpara=1&carte=1


 


 


 


18z GFS op looking great so far.

Really liking the blocking over Greenland.

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

Russwirral
17 December 2014 22:38:34
GFSP is becoming a stella run...

Genuinely awesome




Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Stormchaser
17 December 2014 22:39:45

Hah... get this:


18z GFS op has the Scandi trough considerably further east from day 7 onward and that allows a small UK High on Christmas Day - bright, chilly, but no show.


18z GFSP op has the Scandi trough a bit further west and digs it down into Europe faster, more like the 12z JMA op run.


 



I have never wanted a model upgrade to prove it's worth more than now.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Gooner
17 December 2014 22:40:07


GFSP is yet again very good

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Polar Low
17 December 2014 22:41:24

Indeed very close run to December 1981


 


 


GFSP is becoming a stella run...

Genuinely awesome



Originally Posted by: Russwirral 

Brian Gaze
17 December 2014 22:42:30

These are the charts of the day for me:



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Whether Idle
17 December 2014 22:45:22

At this stage Whether you are for and against - I think we are at the straw man stage. We're looking at the big pieces in the right places.

Looking at the 18z - the overall structure is very promising. Though im not sure about that LP in the mid-atlantic ~174 hrs. Will that scupper the GH?



Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


Clearly things are finely balanced between a GFS (P) white out and a GFS damp squib.  Place your Betts

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
White Meadows
17 December 2014 22:46:43
You know things are getting fun when there are 10+ pages missed in a mere few hours.
Something is showing its hand on the horizon. Shame it's ten days away.
For now I'll stick with Darren mild-knickers Betts to keep expectations realistic !!!
Whether Idle
17 December 2014 22:53:00

Somethings brewing on the GFS...



Meanwhile on the GFS (P)



What's your tipple?

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
David M Porter
17 December 2014 22:56:21

18z GFS op looking great so far.

Really liking the blocking over Greenland.

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


Much, much better from that cold point of view than anything we saw throughout last winter Joe, that's for sure.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Quantum
17 December 2014 22:59:18

Is anyone going to say this isn't impressive?


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
David M Porter
17 December 2014 23:01:17



GFSP is yet again very good


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


I reckon that much of Scotland would get buried with snow if that run were to materialise.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Russwirral
17 December 2014 23:02:16
Its funny isnt it... Im used to seeing charts like this during the summer saying how crazy would it be if THAT run happened end of December start of January...

well......

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Polar Low
17 December 2014 23:05:09

its also that low alignment at around t180 that ruins it James it brings the high up with it the P does not do that



 


P does not do that



 


 



Hah... get this:


18z GFS op has the Scandi trough considerably further east from day 7 onward and that allows a small UK High on Christmas Day - bright, chilly, but no show.


18z GFSP op has the Scandi trough a bit further west and digs it down into Europe faster, more like the 12z JMA op run.


 



I have never wanted a model upgrade to prove it's worth more than now.


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

Solar Cycles
17 December 2014 23:06:38


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014121712/ECH1-216.GIF?17-0


This would fit  D Betts comment ??


Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Nothing is nailed yet  in terms of depth and longevity of cold and as it stands the MetO feel this will be a short sharp blast with a return of mobile Westerlies. On the plus side  there's a long way to go and a lot of water to flow under the bridge between now and then.

Zubzero
17 December 2014 23:09:29


 


Much, much better from that cold point of view than anything we saw throughout last winter Joe, that's for sure.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


 


Still poor Imby for cold and snow. The gfsp is better for a day or 2 in lala land before it topples 


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2014121718/gfsnh-0-222.png?18


Last winter was a 1-100 year winter.


 

Russwirral
17 December 2014 23:14:19

My main worry - is that this is a signal the atlantic is about to kick back into life... has the hall marks of a SW


 


 


Netweather GFS Image


Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 

Remove ads from site

Ads