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doctormog
18 December 2014 16:52:38
I cannot believe that after so many years of watching the NWP output that people never learn and go all melodramatic when one or two operational runs come out. Nothing was set in stone, not much has changed, not much is still set in stone.

(The parallel run looks very cool up here for a few days at least - by the 18z output it could be gone or it could be better).

Over-analysis is a dangerous thing (for people's mental wellbeing as much as anything else) and that is why people and organisations like the Met Office don't overreact to individual runs of individual models re. output over a week away.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
the converted
18 December 2014 16:52:46
I am waiting for the weekend before making a judgement, We are still in F!
Gusty
18 December 2014 16:54:46


As we all feared it would, high pressure to the south is the spoiler. We wont even get a northerly at all. My goodness, I didnt expect it to go Pete Tong so quickly!


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Only one run and all that but history suggests when it starts to fall apart it falls apart quite rapidly. 


Parallel, GEFS and the ECM are all awaited with interest but today hasn't felt quite right and I'm sensing impending disappointment.


Hope I'm am seriously wrong. 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
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Sinky1970
18 December 2014 16:57:48
I don't know why we bother looking at these charts as they'll look completely different again in 12 hours time.
Frostbite80
18 December 2014 16:59:38

I don't know why we bother looking at these charts as they'll look completely different again in 12 hours time.

Originally Posted by: Sinky1970 

you mean 6 hours tongue-out

Brian Gaze
18 December 2014 17:00:21


 


Only one run and all that but history suggests when it starts to fall apart it falls apart quite rapidly. 


Parallel, GEFS and the ECM are all awaited with interest but today hasn't felt quite right and I'm sensing impending disappointment.


Hope I'm am seriously wrong. 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


The parallel is even worse for most of us after a couple of cooler days.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Gooner
18 December 2014 17:02:11

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014121812/UN144-21.GIF?18-17


 


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014121812/gfsnh-0-144.png?12


 


This is really about as far as anyone of can look and at this point we could end up on the cold side of things,


 


Patience

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


KevBrads1
18 December 2014 17:05:05


WOW.


Well I was urging caution earlier, but that has blown things apart. Wait for the ENS, but I think its about as dead as a dodo now.


Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


Practice what you preach comes to mind. You were urging caution at the beginning and claiming death at the end. Could you not be so contradictory in such a short space? 


 

MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
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Zubzero
18 December 2014 17:07:10


 


Only one run and all that but history suggests when it starts to fall apart it falls apart quite rapidly. 


Parallel, GEFS and the ECM are all awaited with interest but today hasn't felt quite right and I'm sensing impending disappointment.


Hope I'm am seriously wrong. 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


 


Most output only showed a northerly toppler at best anyway, not much to get disappointed about.


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014121812/UN12-21.GIF?18-16


5 days later http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014121812/UN144-21.GIF?18-17


Still a similar pattern we have had for the past few weeks


 


 


 

Gooner
18 December 2014 17:09:05


 


Practice what you preach comes to mind. You were urging caution at the beginning and claiming death at the end. Could you not be so contradictory in such a short space? 


 


Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


Because that is our cherry picking friend Jacko

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Joe Bloggs
18 December 2014 17:10:42


 


Practice what you preach comes to mind. You were urging caution at the beginning and claiming death at the end. Could you not be so contradictory in such a short space? 


 


Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


Quite.


I think certain people need to read Brian's words from a couple of days ago - CHILL out. If it snows, it snows.. If it doesn't, it doesn't.


Yes the models are having a wobble regarding the Greenland blocking.. No great surprise and is typical of many a pattern change over the years. 


We all know how fickle the NWP can be and it would be silly to make sweeping statements based on the latest output. 


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
18 December 2014 17:13:40

Got to be the biggest over reaction to one run I think I've ever seen and that's saying something on TWO. Plenty of time for upgrades yet. I'm actually expecting a good ECM tonight as the ensembles are so good.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Frostbite80
18 December 2014 17:16:01
Control replaces a cool nwesterly on the 6z to a w/swesterly on the 12z. Something tells me the models could be latching on to a new trend over the Xmas period, if ECM follows suit it would be disappointing.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=162&mode=0&carte=0 
Brian Gaze
18 December 2014 17:19:10

When I saw the GEFS0z first thing this morning I thought there was a good chance of the output firming up on a cold solution to the extent that I'd planned em'ing journalists this evening for Saturday's copy. I've ditched that idea and am planning on a few beers instead tonight. 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Frostbite80
18 December 2014 17:20:24


When I saw the GEFS0z first thing this morning I thought there was a good chance of the output firming up on a cold solution to the extent that I'd planned em'ing journalists this evening for Saturday's copy. I've ditched that idea and am planning on a few beers instead tonight. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

lol good choice Brian i am already on the wine!!

Frostbite80
18 December 2014 17:23:33

Control replaces a cool nwesterly on the 6z to a w/swesterly on the 12z. Something tells me the models could be latching on to a new trend over the Xmas period, if ECM follows suit it would be disappointing.

Originally Posted by: Frostbite80 

good">http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=162&mode=0&carte=0

good news is 9 perbs still have a northerly component around Xmas, so it's not all bad ;)

tallyho_83
18 December 2014 17:23:57
What happened to that Northerly on 25th and 26th!??

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1741.gif 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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David M Porter
18 December 2014 17:25:59


 


Quite.


I think certain people need to read Brian's words from a couple of days ago - CHILL out. If it snows, it snows.. If it doesn't, it doesn't.


Yes the models are having a wobble regarding the Greenland blocking.. No great surprise and is typical of many a pattern change over the years. 


We all know how fickle the NWP can be and it would be silly to make sweeping statements based on the latest output. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


I agree completely, Joe.


Quite why people seem to take one or two model runs in isolation as gospel is beyond me tbh. Yes, the GFS 12z looks poor, but unless it is supported by the likes of tonight's ECM run and by a number of runs tomorrow, I'm not going to put a massive amount of faith in it to be honest. GFS especially can be very erractic at the best of times; I've been following it more than long enough now to know this.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Frostbite80
18 December 2014 17:28:19

Just look at the control go just after Xmas........if only!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=20&ech=216&mode=0&carte=1


 


Edit sorry this is perb 20 but still nice eye candy with all the doom and gloom this evening!

Rob K
18 December 2014 17:29:39


 


Practice what you preach comes to mind. You were urging caution at the beginning and claiming death at the end. Could you not be so contradictory in such a short space? 


 


Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


You're forgetting, cold charts must always be treated with caution, but mild charts are always gospel! 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Quantum
18 December 2014 17:30:34

The GFS12Z is fine, albeit a little slow. The parallel is awful, but then it is just one run. Cheer yourselfs up by looking at the GEM. 


Bin the UKMO though, what the hell is going on there? 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Jonesy
18 December 2014 17:33:04

When the like of Betts and Ian F share little snippets of inside knowledge 24hr prior then you have to have caution when getting too excited, frustrating I know but the more times this happens the more it stops me getting too excited till they share a positive, give it 48hrs after they do and then if the models and this place get ott then you know there is a good chance of something happening... just a pattern/trend I have spotted that's all and not from a model output 


 


BTW one of snowless this GFS weather type map has been  


 


.http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=rart&HH=174&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Medway Towns (Kent)
The Weather will do what it wants, when it wants, no matter what data is thrown at it !
Joe Bloggs
18 December 2014 17:33:48


The GFS12Z is fine, albeit a little slow. The parallel is awful, but then it is just one run. Cheer yourselfs up by looking at the GEM. 


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I too don't think the GFS is all that terrible, I was expecting worse given the comments in here.


The bigger picture hasn't changed all that much.. There's still a theme of high pressure to our NW. High pressure over Europe or a -NAO that is too westerly based could indeed mean we don't get properly cold.


I'm not entirely sure if things have changed that wildy so far tonight? 


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Gooner
18 December 2014 17:35:35


When the like of Betts and Ian F share little snippets of inside knowledge 24hr prior then you have to have caution when getting too excited, frustrating I know but the more times this happens the more it stops me getting too excited till they share a positive, give it 48hrs after they do and then if the models and this place get ott then you know there is a good chance of something happening... just a pattern/trend I have spotted that's all and not from a model output 


 


BTW one of snowless this GFS weather type map has been  


 


.http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=rart&HH=174&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=


Originally Posted by: Jonesy 


Apart from the whole of last winter of course

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


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