Nope it kilns over and does not open for some reason on my machine direct files at the moment any ideas nope cause like I said had trouble all day on and off.

Mean just changed from 6 to 18z in a matter of seconds anyway gfs18z mean at t168

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=21&ech=168&mode=0&carte=1

indeed think we need a few more runs or days god knows what the reliable is as also ecm does not seem to be much better either at the moment

Do you recon these server problems relate in any way to the quality of the data? 

Also when was the last time anything this absurd happened in terms of the ridiculous flip flopping and contrived patterns. I don't remember anything so bizare at least since I joined TWO, tempted to bin everything today except the ensemble means which seem to be the only thing that have a grip on reality at the moment.

Also sorry to be off topic, but has anyone seen the met forecast. Its extremely wintry, one of the most wintry long range forecasts I've ever seen. Massive U turn from them.

Perhaps in this uncertain time in the medium term the fax charts are more useful with human input

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif?1

Yes but as Peter has said uncertain over the pond let alone anything else if you read those updated daily even to the point of does the energy form of not? and that was only 2 days ago. 

I think it will, NWerly waves are very common and it seems perfectly natural for one to develop. What I don't like is the way it develops, the idea of 2 even three converging pressure centres is rather unsettling, and while bombogenesis is possible, I think it is being overexagerated.  

Its broken.....Hardware issue.

Screw this, I'm going to bed. The models have never annoyed me more than they have today.

Hope tomorrow brings something less infuriating. 

Thus far should run to t144

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=84&mode=1&nh=1&archive=0

 nope even the jap run has given up im off up the wooden hill

Looks pretty nasty for the UK if this came off...

Who would be a forecaster? Emphasis today surely on the potential for a severe storm at some point next weekend. The GFS OP is at the higher end of the suite with most of the ENS spitting some sub-tropical energy into the N Atlantic at the point where a jet streak pushes in from the NW. The explosive cyclogenesis that ensues is impressive, with nearly 40mb falls in 18hrs on some members. The track and timing varies, so best not to get too hung-up on detail but should this develop (maybe 50% risk) then it's significant and will be closely watched.

Note the identification of Rapid Cyclogenesis is not just absolute central pressure gradients but the structure in visible and WV satellite imagery and this of course can only be viewed in real time. For now it's all virtual, but given the improvements in modelling these features these last few years, definitely worthy of a mention.

Boxing Day morning could provide a sharp frost with cold air entrained within the high pressure, many places will have light winds and winter sunshine if this comes to fruition:

There are still hardware problems in the US which may cause further GFS/GEFS delays, and the GFSP remains on hold. All forecasts and model data on TWO at the moment is current and complete.

The general outlook looks a mixed one, not particularly cold for most of us and not overtly mild. One of the key things I've learnt over the years is that most people on the forums will point and focus on the most extreme outcomes the numerical models are suggesting. In the vast majority of cases the outcome is less severe. 

Very true, but when the majority of NWP and their ENS project the same broad development within a particular timeframe then it needs to be monitored. I'm referring to 27th Dec of course and not focussing on cold and snow.

 I read your comments after posting mine so wasn't referring to them. Yesterday I didn't have time to post much because of the hardware and data issues but I did read quite a lot of comments on here, Twitter and elsewhere.

The model output taken in isolation suggests the possibility of a nasty winter storm with a risk of snow in northern regions, but on balance it's a changeable outlook similar to what we've had for much of December. A number of the overnight GEFS runs throw up a mid-Atlantic ridge, but only 1 builds a Greenland high in the 216 hours range and sustains it. None of the GEFS runs at that range reverse the flow at our latitude in any meaningful way.

Looking at GEFS at 192h 50:50 split between WSW mildish flow and NW/N associated with LP moving SE

At 240h roughly 50:50 split between mild WSW flow and HP dominated by either mid Atlantic or Greenland  HP.

By 360h 75:25 in favour  of strong WSW flow.

In summary evens chance of cold associated with NW/N flow round LP next weekend but looks like short lived cold spell if it does happen with mobile Atlantic back in the driving seat for early Jan.