Out of the entire Arctic, why does the PV always decide to sit right there?

'cause it can ?......  and it knows  it will annoy us ?

Could be related to any strat warming nearly all ways being to the West and north 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2014122112/gfsnh-10-192.png?12

But my knowledge of strat warming could be written on the back of a snowflake.

Hi Rob. The potential for a high-end event is far from vanishing. Some scatter in relation to intensity and track yes, but the interaction of a meta-tropical injection into the upper trough has been modelled for several days now. Of course in this business nothing is certain apart from what's out of your window, but the 'potential' is definitely there. There is now a separate thread for this.

You'll never find one

Quite marked differences again between 12Z and 18Z even at +126, with both the old and P holding better surface pressure over Greenland. Track adjustments again in the Satan Storm but it's still very much there.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014122118/gfsnh-0-156.png?18

Just looks like being a bit breezy for the South

The gfsp offers a little hope for a decent cold spell later in the run 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2014122118/gfsnh-0-222.png?18

I'm liking the new gfs seems to be more consistent and don't topple everything and revert to default at 192 

like the old gfs

Edit: soon as it enters low res it topples 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2014122118/gfsnh-0-252.png?18

That would have been especially true a year ago (not finding a snowflake that is).

Back on topic, I think we're going to have a very interesting week of model watching coming up. The last few weeks have certainly not been without interest and we've already had more by way of variation from the model output this month alone than we had in all three months of last "winter".

18Z trending all direction, but it still looks bleak. The 0Z viewing will be stressful (except for those that arn't ridiculously obsessive about this). 

Despite all the knowledge, find these times fascinating where there is so much uncertainty and makes you wonder what we will be looking at this time tomorrow David.

The 18z GFS has actually moved quite a way towards the 12z JMA in terms of how the system moves about, which given how that one was on its own out of the 12z op runs (but may have had a bit of support from the ECM 12z control run based on reports elsewhere), is a reflection of how little faith can be put into any of the solutions currently on offer.

Only a slight shift by GFSP as far as the U.S. low is concerned, not enough to change anything, but this act of consistency is not matched across the Atlantic, where the southern arm of the jet is just a little stronger, sustaining a slightly stronger mid-Atlantic ridge which in turn allows the 'Satan storm' to dig a little further south.

This would be an interesting trend if it wasn't for the complete lack of cross-model consistency going on at the moment  

I'm really starting to miss the days when it was possible to look at trends from run to run and estimate where the output was going with at least a half-chance of getting it right.

The annoying thing is, a part of you just knows that the single model going for mild is going to win out even if its the GFS and all of them are against it.

But screw it, I can't give up now after being on this road for so long and making loads of snow charts in preparation for a cold spell. 

Fww last winter was one of the most interesting I've known in all my years watching weather.

With that in mind, the potential "storm" is still there on the GFS operational. The ECM 12z has made a bit more of it than recent earlier runs as well.

The latest fax charts, although only going out to T120, show early stages of what looks like a "bomb" which is not surprising as the clash of airmasses seems primed to develop one.

More runs obviously needed but issues regarding heavy snow and rain, severe gales and a potential storm surge continue towards next weekend.

Really? I found last year nail biting, I note that from Daren S' statistics I actually posted more during last year than at any other time, but I'm sure that was more out of frustration. I have really no interest in regular storm systems unless they have tropical characteristics (because I like seeing if they still have any when they get to the UK and I'm fascinated by tropical systems), for me its all about cold and snow perhaps because no other weather can really cause chaos in the UK like snow can. Let's be honest unless this storm has cold air wrapped in it, most people will just go about their daily lives as normal and perhaps be slightly inconvenienced, but if it is full of snow AND has the wind that would be an event to remember.

Consistent signs for the strat vortex to become increasingly elongated & eventually split by early 2015

https://twitter.com/matthugo81

18Z ENS GFS have veered up these last few runs to be honest, with only the OP and control flying the flag for something a little more prolonged after the wake of the weekend storm.

I am just starting to consider that Dec 14 will be snowless here, but although the idea of Greenland HLB has all but been dropped, there is still a low chance of some sort of Scandy presence so it's a bit early to be making the call yet.

Ive had a quick scan this morning and there appears to be model chaos.

GFS goes for an Arctic NWly which almost sets up a Polar Continental but after cold stalemate sinks to the S.  Most of the GEFS seem to go for  either HP domination longer term or zonal train of the milder westerly type, but the control is similar to the OP - cold.

GFS P manages in the far reaches of FI to unleash the Beast from the East.  Implausible in the extreme but worth a look before it disappears on the 6z as its the sort of fantasy run that the GFS 18z used to be renowned for. It is ridging into the GIN sea towards the end of the hi res that seems to be pivotal, and later an Iberian low as the trigger.  Akin to some of Darren's colder ECM ens members no doubt.

GEM and Met O are not a million miles apart at 144 and  from 120 send a succession of storms between transient ridges.

As for the ECM?  Take your guess?

Model watching at its complex and unpredictable best

WI

Well The ECM has changed its mind about the storm Sat night, http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif looking better placed for transient snow,

Looks like the high will sink pretty quickly though,

We'll get there one day!