http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2282.gif

Sad thing is the lack of blues in Europe, not that much cold air to tap into

Surface would be  cold, don't worry about it pal, all you need is -1 or so 850s in a continental easterly.

Talk about role reversal!

OT again, the 21 55 didn't show much in the way of snow, it was more about the wind and the rain....................much can change of course

Why not reply to him with some of your wisdom:

"One for the Alps, this 18z
High is sinking already..."

Gentlemen I know and understand , but you don't get an Easterly that often and in late Dec / early Jan it would be great to have a real cold pool to take from

Beggars cant be choosers

I'll shut the F up then

No comments on the GFSP then

IIRC - pre the December 2010 cold spell, were the charts not upgrading run after run to bring what actually occured?

This could be the first building blocks of something decent in the new year. I am hedging my bets for now, but promising that all the major models have hinted at something similar.

I think as you said earlier, the low this weekend has caused considerable uncertainty, and will probably continue to do so until after it has passed.

A lot more interest that last year though.

I can't wait until this low has passed, as time goes by it seems to get less certain! 12Z GFS was a fine dry boxing day, and 18Z is potentially significant snowfall! 

Its amazing how one little trough can cause so much trouble.

We've been a bit lenient recently..........

Please don't clutter this thread with posts that belong elsewhere. If you append your post with "sorry I know it's OT" you really shouldn't be making the post in the first place should you?

Sharpen up guys. 

Switch between operational and GFSP here:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

take a look for yourself

All to play for, but great model watching nonetheless.

OK its the pub run, but if this verifies the forecast for boxing day will be a world away from what the BBC forecast said today. 

The GFS's own precip type parameter suggests rain however its ridiculously close to being snow, I'm sure the met don't expect this kind of evolution with a weak southerly tracking low that has no time to pick up any cold air, but if we do end up with this, it will really make things more interesting!

It's Christmas. It's the Pub Run - Mulled Wine Alert.

 This will be gone tommorow won't it! 

A massive U-Turn by the GFS in the 18z run tonight. Forget about the high possibly migrating to Scandinavia; this is the GFS run in many from recent days that hasn't sent the high to central or southern Europe.

Tomorrow and Xmas Day are going to be very interesting days for model watching, I think.

"Do you want to carve the turkey, love? Maybe put something good on the TV, or play some festive games?"

"Actually I was going to check the model runs..."

Nah, you're alright Dave. Enjoy. Lol!