I know it's Christmas (nearly), but can we keep the thread on topic please. Cheers.

October by any chance

Never found Saint that patient tbh

You forgot the plastic sheeting on the chairs btw

Still quite relaxed about the next week or so. Certainly not buying into the more extreme scenarios we've seen as I've been there many times before

Well Merry Crimbo one and all. Hope you all wake up to six inches of the white stuff in the morning, but more realistically it's going to be Lynx Africa and a packet of After Eight mints as per usual. Anyway I raise my glass of mulled wine to one and all. Yo ho ho.

Couldn't resist a quick look at the GFS 18Z

The GFSP continues to want to throw various shortwaves into the flow from Monday. The first fades away SSW but the next looks more robust on a SW trajectory. These little features can have a huge impact on the orientation and 'buoyancy' of the high and the conditions we experience here in the UK. Watch this closely . . .

And there we are:  at +180 on the GFSP we have -12 uppers approaching the E coast.

Happy Christmas

only an observation, but ever noticed weather moving in from the west is often adjusted slightly north with time, yet projected easterly outbreaks often sink nearer the time? Perhaps I could be wrong. 

Anyway Happy Christmas all,

keep on postin!

jacko

I can see your point Steve the finer detail nearthe time is of course another thing but small steps.

A merry and safe xmas to all two members and many thanks to Brian and to all mods who work so hard to make it all happen 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

and heavy 'battleground' snow across a wide area at +216!

Merry Christmas to all on TWO!

Bizarre to say the least 528 from a straight westerly

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=222&mode=3&runpara=1

#

Yes, a merrier 18z from GFSP as a shortwave forms to our east and runs west along the northern flank of the Med. low, helping to transfer the deeper cold further west while also acting to prop up the ridge further north.

So a good spot there Neil 

Shame ECM and it's ensembles also had too much energy going NE over the high, flatter than I expected to be honest. Still plenty of room for what could be truly massive adjustments by the evening of 26th based on on recent days.

I wonder if the weekend low will truly be sorted out until the very last moment, what with the poor data count in the region where the northern shortwave originates (which is not a festive thing - it's always the case up there).

Signing off for the eve with a massive Merry Christmas and a raise of glasses first to JMA's fine 12z effort and second to GEM's excellent variant on the theme. GFS and ECM can have the stockings full of coal 

Arrr  nice one stormchaser, love you man great post, going down signing off  too, peace people, have a good one merry xmas,

I'm still fairly happy with my forecast at this stage. Still looks like we have the risk of snow showers in the east Saturday into Sunday, then cold and frost up to New Year.

I think the GFS is trying to break down the high pressure too quickly on 18z and 12z runs and it'll be more robust, giving us a cold end of 2014/start to 2015.

With much of central Europe plunging into the freezer, dew points and surface temperature will be more important to keep an eye on next week than upper air temperatures... Similar to New Year 2008/2009 maybe.

Whether this could turn into a proper cold/snowy spell, as the JMA and GEM hint, remains to be seen, but I wouldn't I certainly wouldn't rule it out...

Some starting to like the general idea Gav

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=12&ech=192&mode=0&carte=1

vin P;654864]

I'm still fairly happy with my forecast at this stage. Still looks like we have the risk of snow showers in the east Saturday into Sunday, then cold and frost up to New Year.

I think the GFS is trying to break down the high pressure too quickly on 18z and 12z runs and it'll be more robust, giving us a cold end of 2014/start to 2015.

Whether this could turn into a proper cold/snowy spell, as the JMA and GEM hint, remains to be seen, but I wouldn't I certainly wouldn't rule it out...