Oh dear. Awful output today! No Christmas miracle this year

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-3-1-264.png?0

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-3-0-264.png?0

This will do.

Thanks for the Christmas cheer Marcus 

The exact track of the low tomorrow still isn't nailed on so there could yet be some wintry stuff for those not expecting it. I'm fully prepared for a Boxing Day walk in the cold rain though.

The ECM ens are still split for the new year but with the op and control both on the milder side and other op runs going down the same road it seems the high is indeed going to sink. Nothing certain as always though! Merry Christmas all.

The turkey isn't the only thing that's stuffed this morning. 

So it's a good old fashioned toppler after all.

It might be a while before I bother looking at the NWP output again.

Have a great day everyone 

Euro4 has snow for Wales and the Cotswolds later tomorrow afternoon ...

From General Synopsis, Major Depression and Aunty Cyclone.

Merry Christmas to all on TWO. May your synoptics be seasonal, your adiabats be awesome, your Yule be cool, your tephigrams terrific, your convection uncapped!

:-)

Steve

Lurker here.... 

But Gibbys morning report (excellent read !) appears the likely outcome !

Happy Xmas all !!!

John in Gloucester (at least if there are a few snow flakes in the Cotswolds tomorrow I can always nip up there and touch a few !!  - but I think I'll leave the toboggan behind ! )

Our best option is for it to sink ASAP and try again from the north.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014122506/gfsnh-0-228.png?6

My Turkey will taste a little better now. Thanks 06z!

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014122506/gfsnh-0-264.png?6

We need to look for High pressure at the other side of the pole and for the pattern to be gradually pushed south

Forget about the Scandi High. Its dead and cooking in the oven

The blonde model still holding on

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2014122506/navgem-0-144.png?25-11

Given the signals and potential it's disappointing the high looks like sinking and we reset the mobile westerly into next week.

The MetO were even convinced enough by the teasing to adjust their extended outlook which has been as I've said before been very reliable of late. A brief affair though as normality is restored and we now stare another maybe two weeks of westerlies before the much touted strat wave breaking or QBO phase 8 and all the other flavours of the week come to winter's rescue.

As I concentrate on my turkey and port, I won't be holding my breath!

Ho ho ho

.

Happy Xmas to all

I would link to my post of the 14th where I stated we could see a snow event between Xmas and new year. (But it's in a locked thread)

certainly stretching it to call tomorrow an event, but given what we have suffered for the past twelve months wintry wise, it's certainly notable.

It was all in the extended ens - no secrets.

The current thinking on the extended is cool zonality as we head through week two as blocking the other side of the pole forces the lower polar heights this side. guess that promises wintry possibilities for the north of the uk and further south if we see disturbances in the flow. I would be wondering what the consequences would be with the lower lattitude track of the jet if we see some amplification appear which is feasible given the predicted drop off in the strat wind profile and split vortex.

Incidentally, tomorrow's 'action' occurs because the small depression ejected ne out of the Atlantic trough no longer phases with the fellow dropping in from the nw and is allowed to trundle ese under its own steam, no longer deepening as was predicted it would drag it's warmer uppers into contact with the PFJ to our north. these late developments show that once you get the colder uppers close to the north of the uk, occurrences as tomorrow are just standard winter fayre. Last winter perhaps robbed us of some perspective. Not even a third of the way through the season and most LRF's expected a late loading winter so plenty to look forward to before our minds turn to cape values!

I suppose the MetO were bound to err on the side of caution with their doomladen, apocalyptic warnings of four inches of snow for the entire country on Boxing Day. Really though, how realistic is this? Sad thing is it will put people off travelling to see relatives (if they live a long distance away) completely unnecessarily.

People like yourself writing comments like the above that give the metoffice a bad reputation - 

4?inches for the whole country was never said. Infact the warnings where for the south midlands northwards.

This is not good, if this high sets up in the wrong place we will never get rid of it. 

This first sentence of this post is total rubbish. I'd delete, but better to let people pick it apart. 

The results of my experiment are (partially) in - and there is a lack of data today. Whether it makes any difference or not is much harder to answer, but suffice to say I'm not paying too much attention to the longer-term output today or tomorrow!

Time Aircraft Ship/Synop obs
23/06 113141 73720
23/12 112318 65868
23/18 192319 73024
24/00 193542 63402
24/06 115009 73299
24/12 101293 65816
24/18 177831 72963
25/00 155527 63069
25/06   62505 72938

Data from:
http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/monitoring/coverage/dcover!aircraft!06!pop!od!mixed!w_coverage!latest!/

Nothing mild at all about the GFS 12z

Thanks for finally putting this to bed. As we have previously thought, there are data issues on Christmas Day and Boxing Day. Great work! :-)

lack of data is perhaps the only straw we can clutch today!

ECM is horrendous

But if lack of data myth is a reality then maybe that is a straw. After all we have had stella Christmas Day and Boxing Day charts in the past with the perceived lack of data. 

We could write off the first half of January if the ECM zonal train fires up like that. January 2014 revisited.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014122512/ECH0-216.GIF?25-0

Some chilly air still over the UK

Well the westerly is pretty damn direct, and hence ridiculously cold for the direction, uppers -9C in N scotland!

We all know, though what will really happen if the high collapses.

Abandon all hope.