By day 3 the cold is being pushed well and truly into touch by the south-westerly airflow deep into northern and eastern Europe.

Not a picture indicative of decent prospects for deep cold within 14 days.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY TUESDAY DECEMBER 30TH 2014.

NEXT UPDATE WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 31ST 08:00

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure close to Southern England will decline SE over the coming day or so with a SW flow ahead of a series of fronts moving down from the NW over the period.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming unsettled and windy later this week and onward with rain or showers at times and snow on Northern hills. Some drier periods likely in the South.

THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow ridging North over the UK currently. It then flattens considerably while continuing to undulate slowly North then South around the vicinity of Southern England in the continuing programming of a Westerly flow across the UK.

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning shows High pressure collapsing SE into NW Europe over the next day or two with a freshening and less cold Westerly flow developing across the UK. A very mobile and zonal pattern is then shown through to the end of the run with strong West or SW winds across the UK with spells of wind and rain rushing East over all areas with somewhat colder and brighter more showery interludes in between with snowfall restricted to northernmost hills principally.

THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The Parallel run is very similar to the operational this morning in overall pattern with differences in specifics from day to day only in an otherwise flat pattern. There will be rain and showers at times in a strong Westerly flow but with High pressure flirting with the South at times it will be mild here for much of the time and rainfall will be less problematic. Some drier and colder incursions under ridges of High pressure may interrupt  the milder theme with some wintry showers over the hills of the North at times especially later.

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run also shows a strongly zonal pattern under Westerly winds developing for the North soon and to all areas soon after with strong winds and rain at times for all through the second half of the period in average temperatures or a little above at times apart from brief colder interludes at times in the North and some drier periods across the South as High pressure over France remains close by at times.

THE GEFS ENSEMBLES The GFS Ensembles show strong support for a Westerly flow to dominate the UK from later this week. With Low pressure biased to lie to the North and High near the Azores Westerly winds, strong at times will follow their normal characteristics of spells of wind and rain for all with slightly colder and more showery interludes in between, these most prolific across the North.

UKMO UKMO shows a mobile Westerly flow developing across the UK from today onwards. With Low pressure to the North and High to the South there will be fronts moving East in the flow bringing rain at times and short brighter, slightly colder conditions with showers perhaps wintry over the Northern hills.

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts follow the raw data quite well today with a milder SW flow replacing the cold High across Southern Britain over the New Year. A cold front in the stronger SW flow will clear SE by the weekend with another broad warm sector approaching the UK from the SW later in the weekend following a brief chillier ridge on Saturday.

GEM GEM today shows a sutained milder period coming up across all areas as High pressure to the South and Low to the North maintains a Westerly feed of winds for all with rain at times especially over the North and West as the Low to the North feeds occasional troughs East across the UK with brief chillier periods in between.

NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows the well worn track between the models recently of replacing High pressure with a milder Westerly flow between High pressure to the South and Low to the North with rain at times with some brief drier and chillier days in between.

ECM ECM this morning shows the current High pressure moving away to the South with a freshening SW flow ahead of a cold front later in the week bringing some rain. This sets the trend this morning for the rest of the run with milder westerly winds for all and with High pressure to the South and Low to the North delivering fresh to strong Westerly winds and rain at times there will be some marked mild days at times in the South with just short-lived colder periods with showers, wintry at times on Northern hills in between.

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart shows Low pressure to the North and High to the South the most likely scenario at Day 10. This would indicate a strong Westerly flow with spells of rain mixed in with slightly colder and more showery conditions in between, this most likely over the North.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend this morning remains almost totally in favour of a broad Westerly flow across the UK with enough longevity to take us throughout the period this morning with next to no chance of any breakout of this pattern in the immediate future using the data available to me this morning.

MY THOUGHTS This morning's output offers total agreeance and cross model support for milder conditions to move across the UK over the next 48 hours and continue as the dominant factor for all areas throughout the next 10-14 days. With a flat Jet flow moving West to East across the Atlantic and the UK lying on the Southern flank of Low pressure well to the North of the UK and High pressure over the South. The resultant Westerly winds will often be fresh to strong and carry repeated troughs across the UK and carry broad mild sectors with them at times across the South too with temperatures above average in often damp, dull and windy conditions. Northern areas in particular could well see some colder polar maritime air at times as cold fronts pass over but these look fairly undramatic with any snowfall from the accompanying showers restricted to the higher hills even in the North before it all gets swept away by the next warm front sector. I can see no let up or clues from the charts to indicate anything other than this mild theme lasting at least until mid January at least and as I have been saying all season and continue to promote the Azores High is particulary strong and persistent this year and as it stretches into Southern Europe at times prevents all would be attacks from the North. So we have to rely on the science of Sudden Stratospheric Warming held within the temperatures of the atmosphere high above our heads which is scheduled to show a rise over the coming weeks across the Arctic which supposedly can propagate down to the troposphere and deliver a higher chance of cold to the UK some while afterwards. In the grand scheme of weather though even the experts at the Met Office admit there is still a lot of research and understanding needed to suggest that SSW will give rise to colder conditions per se with multiple complexities across the Northern hemisphere in general all having to come together at the same time to increase any chance of cold further. So while we don't see the results of this in the models we have to keep saying that it is going to stay mild for the foreseeable future with rain at times as the models remain resolute in showing nothing other than this.

Yes and the 10 day chart is even worse than it was yesterday which I thought was difficult - note the increased strength of the Azores high over southern Europe and the deepening trough in NE America:

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Still, as Gavin's excellent 1990/1991 video showed the other day, it can go from zonal dross to snow fest in a week from conditions similar to this. We may still end up with a zonal January but it often has in the past flipped quickly when it seems mild weather is entrenched deep into Europe. Runs not good today though it has to be said.

Amidst the zonal gloom it is worth keeping an eye open for any substantial ridging eg  at 144h.Unlikely to produce anything with the odd ENS show temporary HP to the east/north east. But really straw clutching given stregnth of Atlantic flow.

Even that in itself has been an improvement on last winter, Maunder. I struggle to remember any fully dry days at all here from the middle of last December through to the back end of February- that's how awful it was.

The models look poor at the moment, but I think we would be extremely unlucky if this winter's zonality proved to be anywhere near as persistent as what we had a year ago. It was seemingly stratospheric warming that was instrumental in altering the course of winter 2012/13, and I wonder that had that not occurred then, would that winter have turned out as poor as last year or this one so far.

hi guys, can someone explain to me if you have a moment  about this vortex strat blocking feature we are ment to behaving on the 9th of jan, what is it ment to do.? where does this blocking have to be to get cold, ?? and where also for us to end up mild,[ which I don't want oviously ] hope if got this right thanks

That is an unword in the modern era Michael. 

ECM finishes in a very similar way to the how Dec 23rd wound up, with a long cold front meandering around northern england.  flooding to part of northern england.  Followed by a stronger Northerly plunge.

Are we up for a repeat patter in a week or so?

Now that the current 'will it wont it' sinking high episode has been well and truly put to bed we have to look at the impact of the impending disturbed spell and the development of runners in the flow. One such feature is set to impact the far North on Thursday with a deepening closed feature scooting across N Scotland (GFS and GFSP, and in part ECM between timeframes) with attendant risk of severe gales.

And from IF on NW, in response to question about SWW:

1. Depends on where any blocking establishes, & scope/longevity of this.
2. Typical lag time from SSW to surface response is circa 3 weeks
3. Confidence remains high in broadly W'ly regime for a good chunk of Jan
4. Tentative signals, currently low confidence, for increased blocking late Jan
5. Current lack of such (clear) signal in EC-EPS/EC Monthly unsurprising
6. Any emergence of unambiguous and impending pattern change via SSW will be clearly signposted in UKMO forecasts/communication, as was case in early 2013.           

I hope this clear and concise summary resolves any lingering issues some people have with the whole start warming debate. In a nutshell, if the UKMO are not seeing a cold signal as discussed in their extended LRF updates, there's not much point in trying to find one.         

Not just me them

Always the case in winter zonal set-ups. 

Something to keep us on out toes as I mentioned elsewhere.

This kind of mobile set up will no doubt deliver some short lived snow up here as colder PM incursions follow LP heading into Scandinavia.

Not all bad 

Aye - always worth pointing out that zonality will deliver something to favoured areas and should that zonality take on a cooler origin then the Scottish ski resorts soon get buried :)

Although last year all snow was restricted to above 2000ft - i do not want a repeat of that 

This is a long way off past the +384z but a sign of a blocking (Greenland and Scandi).

Just like what the models showed 7-10 days ago for this period.

Its understandable with the current appalling charts for wintriness a possible SSW is being looked tol as our saviour to bring us into the promised land of wintry milk and honey but it helps to bear all the uncertainties in mind.

We don't know if there will be a SSW. We don't know to what extent the warming will propagate down to the troposphere.

We don't know if it does filter down and results in N Blocking whether this blocking will be in our part of the hemisphere. Or how long it will take to filter down and how long its effects last.

We don't know if it does result in N Blocking in our area whether it will bring a notable cold spell. In a country where 200 miles N, S, E or W of a trough/block can mean the difference between mild/cold/wet/snow/dry it's a helluva lottery.

The evidence seems solid that a SSW does increase N Blocking and the chance of a cold spell but it's all very tentative and poorly understood.

As said above I won't be getting too bothered until the Met Office indicate something in their outlook.

Agreed, we have several quite cold days , frost has hung around throughout

That never happened at all last Winter

Excellent and if we don't understand that we might as well shut the door

Some will still continue to clutch at straws though despite this excellent take on things

Temps IMBY off 6z

5c 6c 10c 6c 3c 6c 9c 5c 8c 4c 6c 8c 4c 4 c 8c 5c

I was say standard Winter stuff , mostly chilly at times.

Certainly not much in the way of mildness