I don't go on there that often, I have just served a ban for a bit of sarcasm

I would love  Matty to have an hour on there

Indeed

They are good posts

I'd endure a winter with relentless SW winds from the Caribbean to see that  

ECM  still flat as a pancake http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015010312/ECH1-240.GIF?03-0

Hoping for a continuation in the trend for cold on tis evening GEFS

Hope you're on a fast road to recovery Martin, you are missed on here 

Looking at the 12z ECM op run, it's not very decisive at day 10, which is not surprising given that the model still wasn't taking the MJO to phase 7 on the 00z output (something I have now learnt from a handy update on the other forum).

It's far from without interest though, with the beginnings of the western North Atlantic amplification and suppressed storm development across Canada, in line with the other models that features in the GFS and GFSP output.

Where the model differs is with that Siberian High, which while at least as strong as on the GFS and GFSP op runs, hasn't made as much progress poleward.

A rapid dissipation of low heights across Canada days 8-10 now has strong model support, and the most likely explanation is the MJO moving through phase 6 with good amplification, as illustrated in an earlier post.

It is also possible that the position of the wave 2 warming could be helping to keep the vortex from drifting over to Canada at this time.

Plenty of reason, then, to believe that we'll come close to getting a UK cold spell that lasts a few days or more, but little reason as yet to believe that we'll make it the whole way there. If ECM starts taking the MJO to phase 7 in future updates, my eyebrows will start to rise.

As for potential storminess Friday-Saturday next week, I'll pay that more attention nearer the time as it's all about the finer details 

"EC 12Z clusters currently offer a strong mirror to NCEP solutions post-T+312, i.e. with pronounced Atlantic ridging and broadscale trough diving to E. However, as I commented yesterday, there's a way to go before this emerging trend yields any worthwhile confidence and equally, whether it's merely transient."

Fergie's update suggests that a lot of the ECM ensemble members are finding a similar route to GEFS despite the reluctancy to take the MJO as far.

This does make me wonder whether the strat. is having more of a say in things than I had thought... or could it be something entirely different at play? As ever, the atmosphere proves unfathomably complex.

The size of Q's shoulders will depend on how old he is won't it?

IMO there's nothing wrong in a 'hope index'. It isn't too far removed from the WOI or whatever it was?

now we have the berlin site back running, we should be able to trace whatever transpires back to the current warming. i wouldnt expect a mid month cold spell to have its roots in the strat warming but then again, if we manage to stick a greeny block against the vortex we're about to see to our nw, that would be a story. i could see a weak block greenland/iceland but cant believe we could get anything further nw than that.

without being a 'regular' over there, do members here get a bit of a kicking from time to time? 

Best wishes... Hope you're better soon. I've missed your grounded analyses.

Gibbys daily forecasts (model outlook) are great, get well soon 

I miss Retron's daily model analysis to 

The doc could  surf over to mike In Norway 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015010318/gfs-0-132.png?18

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015010312/ECM1-168.GIF?03-0

A very Windy (wet) Spell of weather to come, it's not boring even if there is no snow 

Sorry to hear you've been unwell Martin. Hope your back on your feet soon.

Regards

Gavin

Without meaning to put too much of a dampner on things, the 18Z GEFS take a marked step back across all resolutions (inc the Op, GFSP and Control) from ridging into Iceland and Greenland, most preferring to topple the high into the UK or revert to cool or cold zonality. Save run 16 which is worth a viewing. Maybe a blip, maybe a new trend. Worth noting nonetheless.

Rofl is that true, did you really serve a ban for sarcasm! 

I'd love to see the banter between MattyH and the NW mods. 

Sure but the idea of coming up with a percentage of good ensembles is hardly off stream, I just made the mistake of naming it the 'hope index' ! I feel like I am the comic relief here sometimes, but I'll take it as a compliment 

Things that are controversial on TWO:

The NOGAPS

The NAVGEM

The stratosphere.

Self validation of LRFs

Anything whatsoever about climate

Anything to do with 'Bering high's'

Russia

My age

The 'hope index'

I added it to my list.

Anyway vis a vis the models 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=384

Somewhat of a downgrade on the 18Z set

A rather messy mix of Northern blocking, Southern blocking and Zonal patterns, far less inspiring than the 12Z set.

No change on the EPS

Perhaps a few more really cold members but the support for flat low temps (blocking) has not changed since this morning. 

Another rather diluted version of the 'trend' this morning although it should be noted the OP is a big outlier.
As much as there were no conclusions about Week4, there are still no conclusions!

I'm not keen on using the GEFS mean as a forecasting tool generally, but a lot of the individual members are showing pressure remaining high to the south west towards the end of their forecast period. Whilst I think a pattern change is very possible mid month, the prospects for a genuine UK wide wintry spell don't look very high to me.

The caveat I'll throw in is we could end up with a period of weather similar to the Xmas - New Year one. I know that was classified as a cold spell, but here daytime temperatures were +4C to +6C and it was bone dry, making it a non-event.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

Yes Brian, as long as High pressure stays that high that close to our southwest, then the chances of a cold spell are minimal.  Good job it is so far out!

i agree with brian - broadly. that allows for a fair bit though!

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015010406/gfsnh-0-288.png?6

Another outcome from GFS , just need it to shift East a bit

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3721.gif
Scandy to Iceland HP.

Charts will still alter of course, but a swing back to the potential and possibilities of colder weather from mid January.