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ARTzeman
03 January 2015 13:22:36

Met Office Hadobs     7.31c   Anomaly    3.7c.   provisional to   3nd.


Metcheck                  7.19c.  Anomaly    3.3c.


N-W                         8.42c.  Anomaly    4.23c.


Mount  Sorrel            7.6c.    Anomaly    3.4c.    


My Mean                   8.6c.    Anomaly    2.9c.


 





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Global Warming
03 January 2015 14:32:00

Here are the predictions for January.


Welcome to our newest participants - colin46, Snowshoe, stormbymills, Grandad and colin moffat


Global Warming
03 January 2015 15:30:28


 


I'm curious as to how you calculate your estimates, as I have been using the GFSP output to estimate the CET and so far that has given me a peak anomaly of +2.56*C to 12th January?


All I do is stare at the charts and calculate a rough average for the CET zone, which I admit sounds less than scientific 


 


Either way, the GFSP model has upped the temperatures quite a bit over the past 60 hours; the 12z of 29th gave me a mean of 1.56*C to 12th January. Still well above average of course.


ECM continues to produce chillier output thanks to high pressure not advancing so far into Europe. Still, I'm starting to get the impression that this is how much of the 90's were for NWP model watchers... 


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


I use a very simple system to calculate the estimates. I use the forecasts provided by the WeatherPro App. They seem to be fairly good in my experience. I don't have time to go back to the raw data from the models. I simply use the temperature forecasts from the App for the locations where the CET stations are based. The App will allow me to select Pershore and Stonyhurst College. It does not recognise Rothamsted so I use Harpenden instead.

Global Warming
03 January 2015 15:37:21

Latest forecast has the CET falling below 6C by the 17th.


The Hadley figure for the 1st is way too low in my view. So unusually my calculations currently are higher than Hadley.


Tomorrow looks to be a very cold day indeed but it is a one-off. After that it turns mild before temperatures gradually return to normal by mid-month.


I have added into the chart the mean temperatures for the three individual stations that make up the CET as well as my estimate of the overall CET mean.


Unfortunately no data is publicly available for Rothamsted at the moment. It stopped making SYNOP reports some weeks back. I was using a graphic on the Rothamsted website which gives daily max and min temperatures but that has not updated since 23 Dec. I am hoping this is just due to the Christmas and New Year break and it will be back next week, although I had assumed it was automatically updated.


For now I am using data from the closest available official Met Office station to Rothamsted which is Woburn.


Gavin P
03 January 2015 15:54:08

Am very late sorry. Will go for 4.8 please. A colder second half bringing the temperature down similar to what happened in December.

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Global Warming
03 January 2015 16:06:55

No problem Gavin.


I have updated the list of predictions to also include a revision by Whether Idle on 31 Dec by PM that I had forgotten about.

Hungry Tiger
03 January 2015 19:56:24

10th January looks warm let alone mild.


I wonder what temps that could deliver :-)


 

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


ARTzeman
04 January 2015 12:41:03

Met Office Hadley       6.38c.     Not Fully updated until Monday or Tuesday due to holidays.


Metcheck                  5.46c.     Anomaly      1.31c.


N-W                         7.0c.       Anomaly      2.81c.


Mount  Sorrel            5.8c.       Anomaly      1.6c.


My  Mean                  7.5c.       Anomaly      1.8c.


 





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
05 January 2015 12:15:48

Met Office Hadley        5.35c..         Provisional to 4th.


Metcheck                    4.93c.     Anomaly    0.77c.


N-W                           5.67c.     Anomaly    1.48c.


Mount  Sorrel              5.1c.       Anomaly    0.9c.


My    Mean                  6.5c.       Anomaly    1.8c.


      





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Frost Hollow
05 January 2015 13:56:26

4 days in 2.5c here


Min -0.1c


Max 5.2c


 

springsunshine
05 January 2015 15:56:13


4 days in 2.5c here


Min -0.1c


Max 5.2c


 


Originally Posted by: Frost Hollow 


4 Days in here 8.6c


Min 3c


Max 13.2c

Grandad
05 January 2015 19:46:44

Guys,
Just seen that the CET came in at 2.3C for Sunday (4th).
Surely this must be too high?. I came in with (-0.7C) here in the middle of the Birmingham metroplis area( min -3.8 and max of 2.4C). Out of town the temperatures around the general midlands area were down to -5C (with -2 the minmum) on sat night. Sunday was very depressed due to fog formation (again widely across the midlands.).

I believe that temps were depressed all over the midlands area on sunday (including Rothamstead), but accept it may have reached a bit higher at Stonehurst (6C) , but it still looks high to me.

Be interested in GW's comments.

Be happy to be proved wrong.

Global Warming
05 January 2015 21:23:18

Guys,
Just seen that the CET came in at 2.3C for Sunday (4th).
Surely this must be too high?. I came in with (-0.7C) here in the middle of the Birmingham metroplis area( min -3.8 and max of 2.4C). Out of town the temperatures around the general midlands area were down to -5C (with -2 the minmum) on sat night. Sunday was very depressed due to fog formation (again widely across the midlands.).

I believe that temps were depressed all over the midlands area on sunday (including Rothamstead), but accept it may have reached a bit higher at Stonehurst (6C) , but it still looks high to me.

Be interested in GW's comments.

Be happy to be proved wrong.

Originally Posted by: Grandad 


Agreed that figure is way too high. It will get adjusted down at the end of the month.


Difficult to get a very accurate figure at the moment due to the lack of real time data from Rothamsted but my rough calculations for the 4th give means of 1.3C at Stonyhurst, 1.1C at Woburn and 0.1C at Pershore giving an overall mean of 0.8C.

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
05 January 2015 21:27:42

Guys,
Just seen that the CET came in at 2.3C for Sunday (4th).
Surely this must be too high?. I came in with (-0.7C) here in the middle of the Birmingham metroplis area( min -3.8 and max of 2.4C). Out of town the temperatures around the general midlands area were down to -5C (with -2 the minmum) on sat night. Sunday was very depressed due to fog formation (again widely across the midlands.).

I believe that temps were depressed all over the midlands area on sunday (including Rothamstead), but accept it may have reached a bit higher at Stonehurst (6C) , but it still looks high to me.

Be interested in GW's comments.

Be happy to be proved wrong.

Originally Posted by: Grandad 

What 24 hour period do you use for your daily mean?  I used to wonder why mine were so different to the CET ones, then realised it was because I record a day from midnight to midnight.  I'm pretty sure the CET is recorded from something like 9am to 9am, though someone more clued up might want to correct me. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Global Warming
05 January 2015 22:01:29


What 24 hour period do you use for your daily mean?  I used to wonder why mine were so different to the CET ones, then realised it was because I record a day from midnight to midnight.  I'm pretty sure the CET is recorded from something like 9am to 9am, though someone more clued up might want to correct me. 


Originally Posted by: Caz 


Yes the official recording period has always been 9 GMT to 9 GMT

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
05 January 2015 22:12:41


Yes the official recording period has always been 9 GMT to 9 GMT


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

      Thanks GW.  I think it was probably you who put me straight on that in the first place.   You also answered a question that occurred to me when writing my last post, whether it's GMT or whether it's simply 9 am even on BST.  So that's another wrinkle in my bum, thanks to you!       Figuratively speaking of course.  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
ARTzeman
06 January 2015 12:25:26

Met Office Hadley     5.1c.    Anomaly     1.6c. Provisional to 5th.


Metcheck                 5 .40c. Anomaly     1.24c.


N-W                         5.98.    Anomaly     1.79c.


Mount     Sorrel         5.6c.    Anomaly      1.4c.


My     Mean                6.7c.    Anomaly      1.0c.


 


             





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Grandad
06 January 2015 17:04:00


 


Agreed that figure is way too high. It will get adjusted down at the end of the month.


Difficult to get a very accurate figure at the moment due to the lack of real time data from Rothamsted but my rough calculations for the 4th give means of 1.3C at Stonyhurst, 1.1C at Woburn and 0.1C at Pershore giving an overall mean of 0.8C.


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


 


Thanks GW...


Your figure is more where I expected it to be  (about 1C was my estimate).


 Where do you find the realtime data for Stonyhurst?


 

Global Warming
06 January 2015 22:21:46


 


 


Thanks GW...


Your figure is more where I expected it to be  (about 1C was my estimate).


 Where do you find the realtime data for Stonyhurst?


 


Originally Posted by: Grandad 


This link will give you hourly temperature readings for Stonyhurst 


http://www.weathercast.co.uk/world-weather/weather-stations/obsid/99060.html

ARTzeman
07 January 2015 11:21:44

Met Office Hadley     5.4c.      Anomaly     1.9c.   Provisional to  6th.


Metcheck                5.23c.     Anomaly     1.08c.


N-W                       6.05c.     Anomaly     1.86c.


Mount  Sorrel          5.4c.      Anomaly      1.02c.


My   Mean               6.7c.      Anomaly      1.0c.


   





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Grandad
07 January 2015 20:18:36


 


This link will give you hourly temperature readings for Stonyhurst 


http://www.weathercast.co.uk/world-weather/weather-stations/obsid/99060.html


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


Thanks for the above


Yes the Sonyhurst value looks abbout right.


I too ended up with Woburn as a proxy for Rothamstead.


Woburn looks to me like -0.7C for the 9:00 to 9:00 period on the 4th. . In which case the number for the CET should be 0.5C not the 2.3C recorded. A very sizable difference.


Lets hope it gets corrected at the end of the month.


MIA

ARTzeman
08 January 2015 11:11:02

Met Office Hadley      5.6c.     Anomaly     2.1c.   provisional to  7th.


Metcheck                  5.65c.   Anomaly     1.50c.


N-W                         6.16c.   Anomaly     1.97c.


Mount   Sorrel           5.8c.    Anomaly      1.6c.


My   Mean                 6.7c.    Anomaly      1.0c.


 





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
09 January 2015 12:06:47

Met Office Hadley       5.9c.     Anomaly      2.4c.    Provisional  to 8th.


Metcheck                  5.91c.    Anomaly      1.75c.


N-W                        6.38c.     Anomaly      2.19c.


Mount Sorrel            6.1c.      Anomaly       1.9c.


My  Mean                 6.8c.     Anomaly        1.1c.              





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
10 January 2015 11:57:59

Met Office Hadley        6.3c.      Anomaly    2.8c.     Provisional To 9th


Metcheck                    6.58c.    Anomaly    2.43c.


N-W                           6.98c.    Anomaly    2.79c.


Mount   Sorrel             6.8c.      Anomaly    2.6c.


My     Mean                 7.3c.      Anomaly    1.6c.      





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Global Warming
10 January 2015 14:20:11

The highest temperature yesterday would have been a date record on many days in January. Indeed it would have been a record if it had been the 8th. But as it is we just missed out.


Highest was 16.5C at Exeter Airport. Date record is 17.2C at Aber in Wales from 1971


The CET mean yesterday was the 4th warmest on record for 9th January.

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