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glenogle
  • glenogle
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
06 January 2015 20:47:25

Warnings are now coming out in the media about Friday mornings storm up north and a potentially more widespread one on Saturday, which looks like dragging cold air in behind it on Sunday to allow snow showers to low levels.


If it was down south this would have its own thread already, but as it is oop north where only hector the coo is bothered i thought i'd start a thread seeing as i'm in a thread starting mood 


Obviously being a few days away the media is only warning of the potential, but they are already highlighting that disruption is likely.


Saturdays storm has the impact as high as it can go, which is unusual at this range i'd have thought, although the likelihood is currently low.


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1420761600&regionName=uk


 


Early hours of Friday  http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/12_63_windvector_gust.png?cb=179


Early hours of Saturday http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/12_87_windvector_gust.png?cb=179


 


Have to admit, the gust speeds on those charts aren't as high as i was expecting to see. 


 


UserPostedImage LLTNP 105m asl 
llamedos
06 January 2015 21:00:34

I see no problem with you starting this thread, but I do have issues with raising this tiresome north/south divide issue which only exists in the minds of a minority  


"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
Gooner
06 January 2015 21:04:42


Warnings are now coming out in the media about Friday mornings storm up north and a potentially more widespread one on Saturday, which looks like dragging cold air in behind it on Sunday to allow snow showers to low levels.


If it was down south this would have its own thread already, but as it is oop north where only hector the coo is bothered i thought i'd start a thread seeing as i'm in a thread starting mood 


Obviously being a few days away the media is only warning of the potential, but they are already highlighting that disruption is likely.


Saturdays storm has the impact as high as it can go, which is unusual at this range i'd have thought, although the likelihood is currently low.


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1420761600&regionName=uk


 


Early hours of Friday  http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/12_63_windvector_gust.png?cb=179


Early hours of Saturday http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/12_87_windvector_gust.png?cb=179


 


Have to admit, the gust speeds on those charts aren't as high as i was expecting to see. 


 


Originally Posted by: glenogle 


No it wouldn't , for us it would just be a breeze but if you want to make a big deal of it, you carry on


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


glenogle
  • glenogle
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
06 January 2015 21:10:11


I see no problem with you starting this thread, but I do have issues with raising this tiresome north/south divide issue which only exists in the minds of a minority  


Originally Posted by: llamedos 


It was meant as tongue in cheek,  it's weather to me and i couldn't care less where it takes place.  


It is just unusual that i feel the urge to start the topic as no one else had started it.  I contribute rarely, but prefer to read the event specific detail and thoughts away from the model thread 


UserPostedImage LLTNP 105m asl 
idj20
06 January 2015 21:13:23

Actually, I will follow this thread for "training purposes", as it does involve an exceptionally powerful jet stream and how those weather systems interact with it. I would not rule out a sting jet event at some point during that spell.

  Be safe for those living over the north of the UK, as you know I hate windy conditions so I can't say I envy those living at that end of the country.

  My gut feeling that once all this is done and dusted, we won't hear the last of it as we go into next week - especially if the new FGSP output is anything to go by.


Folkestone Harbour. 
doctormog
06 January 2015 21:21:32
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1a.html  I would not be surprised to see some isolated gusts over 100mph in the far NW.

A day later the next system seems a bit more widespread in terms of high wind speeds but possibly slightly less intense? However because of its track and extent it could potential cause as many if not more problems.

Certainly a period to watch very carefully. I would expect amber warnings to be issued on Thursday for the first system.
KevBrads1
06 January 2015 21:23:27
It reminds me a bit of 17th January 1993


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Fothergill
06 January 2015 22:52:21

GFSP 18z showing some very stormy weather for Thursday night, well in excess of 150kmh/90mph gusts for the Hebrides. Sustained winds of up to 130kmh/80mph. Normal GFS is less extreme but sitll stormy. The parallel seems to love big storms even more than its dad.


Fothergill
06 January 2015 23:11:12

The ECM is also showing force 11/violent storm winds for the Hebrides and Orkney. Mean wind speeds Friday 00hrs (purple is force 11/63-73mph)



 

ChrisJG
07 January 2015 11:37:08
Amber weather warnings for wind from the Met Office out now for the North of Scotland for Thurs & Fri
Home - near Penrith 150m ASL
Work - North/Central Cumbria
glenogle
  • glenogle
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
07 January 2015 22:57:49

Yes, the chances of the Inverness to London train going hassle free on Fri morning is slim imo (i'm hoping to get on the train further down the line, hence my specific interest in this event )


 


Overnight Thursday into Friday morning still rather breezy up here http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/18_33_windvector_gust.png?cb=211


Saturday looks like it is moving further north than thought yesterday http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/18_60_windvector_gust.png?cb=211


 


Not sure what the winds were today, but it was windy and there was a surprising amount of debris on the roads.  The 32mm of rain we got didn't help matters either.  Only 7 days into January and we have had 107mm


 


UserPostedImage LLTNP 105m asl 
Skreever
08 January 2015 08:36:13
Bracing ourselves for winds up to 100mph and snowfall on top. Powerline engineers being drafted in to cover inevitable outages. Warning from council to ensure everything is tied down securely. Flights and ferries all looking like cancellations will be widespread.
Island life..!
Veteran of winter of 62/63
By Scapa Flow, Orkney
nsrobins
08 January 2015 08:41:17

Bracing ourselves for winds up to 100mph and snowfall on top. Powerline engineers being drafted in to cover inevitable outages. Warning from council to ensure everything is tied down securely. Flights and ferries all looking like cancellations will be widespread.
Island life..!

Originally Posted by: Skreever 


yep and good luck! I can see peak gusts in excess of 120mph at exposed locations this evening


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
08 January 2015 10:05:13

This  thread could be extended to a triple storm sytem - there's an even deeper 'bomb' on the Fax charts for Monday


http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx


Fri 962 mb - Sat 944 mb - Mon 932 mb but thankfully for Scotland the tracks are shifting northwards with each successive storm. Shetland will be wild, though, and the Faeroes are in the thick of it


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Frost Hollow
08 January 2015 10:14:39

We will miss the worst of the winds here in The Cairngorms but i am looking forward to more  over the weekend and into next week looks quite snowy here 

doctormog
08 January 2015 17:06:22
http://www.sat24.com/?ir=true 

I see that xcweather also has the mean wind speed at Kirkwall as 74mph at 6am tomorrow. The strongest winds should be overnight but I suspect they will still be hitting this area at the start of rush hour tomorrow. Some flights and trains to the north from here tomorrow have already been cancelled as a precaution.


I see that all schools in the Western Isles and Orkney have been closed tomorrow (wisely IMO)


Crepuscular Ray
08 January 2015 17:30:10
Edinburgh and Glasgow are now in the amber zone....not looking forward to a sleepless night!
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
doctormog
08 January 2015 18:26:42
Looking at comments elsewhere and the developing situation on the satellite imagery it does appear that there is a realistic risk of a sting jet developing currently out to the NW)
doctormog
08 January 2015 18:31:48
I must say this (for Kirkwall) is one of the highest TAFS gust speeds I have seen:

EGPAAAA 081815Z 0818/0903 23016KT 9999 SCT020 TEMPO 0818/0821 25025G38KT 8000 SHRA PROB40 TEMPO 0818/0821 4000 SHRASN BKN014 TEMPO 0821/0824 18020G30KT PROB30 TEMPO 0822/0824 20035G55KT 6000 RA BKN008 BECMG 0900/0903 24027KT PROB30 TEMPO 0900/0903 23040G70KT 6000 RA BKN008=

I think Stornaway is even higher but I have not got the link to hand. It does suggest exceptionally strong winds in some parts tonight. 70knots is very high for an aviation forecast - I would expect higher values elsewhere.
Retron
08 January 2015 18:42:01

It's interesting that GFSP has consistently had stronger winds and the strongest winds further south than GFS - or at least over the past few runs. It'll be a test of which model is more accurate, albeit not in a very fun way for those affected!


Good luck to all those in the north.



 


Leysdown, north Kent
Whether Idle
08 January 2015 18:50:30

Edinburgh and Glasgow are now in the amber zone....not looking forward to a sleepless night!

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 


 After the experience of last winter, you have my sympathy, and I hope that the whole thing ends up being less severe than forecast, or moves north out of the way. 


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
nsrobins
08 January 2015 18:51:34

This is a poor image but I've lost my links to WV imagery
It is the water vapour image for 18Z. A useful tool in determining the degree of cyclogenesis, as warm dry air is often wrapped into the baroclinic leaf. It's this air that accelerates down towards the surface and in could precipitate a sting jet.


You can see a dry air incursion in the image as the darker hole to the W of Scotland.



Updates every hour.


 


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Rob K
08 January 2015 19:22:49
Question for the experts... on the fax charts there are two cold fronts shown in close succession one after the other. What causes this "double cold front" effect?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0a.gif 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
slysi
08 January 2015 19:28:34
I'm up in Skye tonight and they've already closed some schools for tomorrow. The forecast is 100mph gusts after midnight. The rain has just arrived and the winds are slowly increasing but nothing too dramatic yet. Its gonna be a lively night that's for sure.
idj20
08 January 2015 19:40:54

I'm up in Skye tonight and they've already closed some schools for tomorrow. The forecast is 100mph gusts after midnight. The rain has just arrived and the winds are slowly increasing but nothing too dramatic yet. Its gonna be a lively night that's for sure.

Originally Posted by: slysi 



You be safe! Same goes for the Doc, Skreever and Richardabdn. Just hope disruption and damage are kept to a minimum despite the scary sounding expected gust speeds.

Can't say that I envy our Scottish friends, it is the kind of stuff what my own nightmares are made of - and the scary thing is that one of these days it could come true.


Folkestone Harbour. 

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