Unbelievable, that trough that the models had predicted 3 days ago, but had been phased out in the last output has actually appeared! This is responsible for the unexpected rain and snow across Midlands and wales. 

This is why I keep enphasising that you should not take forecasts too literally, these little fellas are a nightmare to predict. 

Not bad at all for IMBY, cold throughout with snow chances. Certainly room for optimism today, for all the country as well.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015011306/graphe6_1000_254_42___.gif

Yes, big downward shift in the GFS 6z ensembles for Aberdeen compared to recent runs. The upcoming cold snap which has been shown by the models for a while looks to be gathering monentum and turning into a cold 'spell' at least.

Still not convinced about the longevity of a Scandi High however as we head into next week, assuming we get one at all. Still not enough energy going South in the medium term for me and the Azores High is still looming to scupper things.

Still, it's trends that are important, and recent runs are trending colder and longer.

Remarkably, this forecast snowfall only seems to upgrade ... A few days ago I was starting to become resigned to a snowless winter - how things have changed.   Caution though.... it is still all only 'virtual' snowfall (IMBY and others in the south that is - I know some have already had snow).  Nobody should be surprised if it actually is a non-event in reality.... Snow is a very fickle beast, and I've known forecasts only an hour or two out from reality to be wrong (both ways).... February 2012 is an example that springs to mind.  Snow was forecast 100 miles west of here in the morning, with a dry forecast for here..... it then started snowing unexpectedly here and we ended up with a ~3-5cm top up to the already lying snow, with nothing 100 miles west, much to the fury of those in that area!  (We then had the coldest night in recent memory (-13c) - colder even than any in 2009 and 2010 IMBY.) 

Where in South Wales? The models only show snow over the high ground at the moment, with the snow line lowering through the evening. 

You usually need the second blue colour on these maps to get snow, and there is currently a warmer patch of air over Wales.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/01/13/basis06/ukuk/th85/15011315_1306.gif

The 6z GFS charts for 12pm show rain in south Wales... it's only 3pm that they show snow.... Even then, the temperatures are marginal at best, so if you're not on higher ground I wouldn't get your hopes up.

Euro4 shows a big patch of warmer air at 3pm too.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/01/13/basis06/ukuk/th85/15011315_1306.gif

By 6pm it should be cold enough

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/01/13/basis06/ukuk/th85/15011318_1306.gif

I don't think the colder air has fed down yet. I understood it to be more this evening into tomorrow morning myself?

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

Looking cold and wintry from the weekend

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Obviously it's cold and wintry today/tonight, but I've already done an update on that with Snow Watch.

This may well be the coldest video I've done since March 2013...

Looking quite white at Dowlais

The Beeb/METO going for quite a widespread snow event on saturday:

cant paste the picture - found here:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167