You would need to see what the DP's are doing but snow can fall with an 850hpa temperature between -5c and 0c if DP's at or below 0c. The big unknown with that chart would be evaporative cooling as well.

I know 850s aren't the be all and end all. I just wish we would get charts like that but with -10C air to avoid all doubt!

It would. But it hardly ever is that straight-forward.

I remember the rain/snow events of early Feb 2009 was full of situations like this. Great fun.

I remember well! The latest TV forecast highlights several 'possible' snow events for the south in the next 48/72 hours

That 18z is a cold run, especially for the northern half of the UK.  Ey up lads!

If we want this cold spell to produce or to be lengthy - we need a supply of deep cold air into Scandi/Northern Europe.  Currently thats not happening and instead we see ourselves under some slowly dissipating area of cold air.:

As a consequence the surface temps on the continent arent that amazing, and probably would slowly spell the end for any low lying snow events in southern England.  Its starting to look very marginal away from the North and Hills.

All Eyes should be looking to our Northeast to see if we can tap into something a bit more potent.

Ultimately we'll want retrogression of the high pressure to Greenland.

But I think everyone should just be happy that we're having some sort of winter this year after last years disaster...

I think thats likely.   I have the feeling there will be  few dummies spat out over the next week or so.. but for me, I think there could be something deeper pattern wise which might need a few tries to get going.  The whole idea of how this pattern has turned out is most unusual to how the recent GFS patterns have been.    

Very cold at the surface though right up to 240hr.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2015/01/15/basis12/ukuk/rart/15011806_2_1512.gif

Sunday morning has ppn pushing up from the South into the S Midlands

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2015/01/15/basis12/ukuk/rart/15012000_2_1512.gif

00:00 Tuesday Snow moving in from the NW

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2015/01/15/basis12/ukuk/rart/15012006_2_1512.gif

06:00 Tuesday morning Snow into Wales and some Central parts

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2015/01/15/basis12/ukuk/rart/15012012_2_1512.gif

12:00 Moderate falls of snow in some parts of England and Wales

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2015/01/15/basis12/ukuk/rart/15012012_2_1512.gif

18:00 Heavy snow in Wales , lighter across towards the SE

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2015/01/15/basis12/ukuk/rart/15012100_2_1512.gif

00:00 Wednesday  persistent moderate snow in parts of Wales and England

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2015/01/15/basis12/ukuk/rart/15012106_2_1512.gif

06:00 Wednesday morning , snow still falling in parts of Wales and England

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2015/01/15/basis12/ukuk/rart/15012112_2_1512.gif

12:00 Wednesday , snow still falling across parts of Wales and England lighter in nature

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2015/01/15/basis12/ukuk/rart/15012118_2_1512.gif

18:00 Wales still seeing some snow

J F F  and not to be taken seriously

Don't want to speak too soon.

Patchy light sleet/snow for southern England throughout next Thursday night and lasting well into Friday: - I know this will change but just for fun.

Thankfully, those maps are often about as useful as a chocolate fireguard. But if that lot are accurate it's rain all the way for me.

850's don't tell the whole story though - take the Atlantic flow out of our weather and the surface can chill out pretty fast.

Though yes, it would turn out a bit grim later on if the low shaped up such as to bring warmer uppers from the SE as per the 18z - quite an inversion with extensive low cloud probable.

At least the 18z shows how a push of low heights over the Atlantic ridge doesn't necessarily mean the end of blocking to our NE if enough amplification to the flow is retained to maintain a split jet with one arm cutting under the Scandi High. Needless to say the lower-res appears too aggressive with the Atlantic, overcooking the jet - a trait which if anything seemed stronger then ever during this updated version's time as the parallel.

As easterlies are notoriously unreliable in terms of quality, I'm going to keep my fingers crossed for the LP early next week to behave favourably enough to bring me the first lying snow in what is now more than two years.

Giving it maybe a 20% chance of being cold enough for snow... but then a 90% chance that there won't be much precipitation to be had 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn21017.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2101.gif

Certainly a cold wintry week to look forward to

New thread coming along folks, closing shortly.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/01/15/basis18/ukuk/prty/15011612_1518.gif

even these charts were a mile for MBY earlier in the week, that is the nature of snow forecasting.