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moomin75
15 January 2015 13:49:18


 


 


Something like "Gooner, what are you doing in here in summer?"



 


Originally Posted by: Tractor Boy 

^^^ Wasn't far from the truth last summer Gooner...August was crap and autumnal and once we got past mid July, the models started showing it! So actually summer was pretty much over!


All in all though, a cool, more seasonal period coming up for most, nothing more.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Gooner
15 January 2015 13:51:18

Run of temps from tomorrow IMBY


5C 4C 1C 1C 3C 2C 3C 2C 2C  Daytime


5 Days back we would have settled for that outlook


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
15 January 2015 13:52:23


^^^ Wasn't far from the truth last summer Gooner...August was crap and autumnal and once we got past mid July, the models started showing it! So actually summer was pretty much over!


All in all though, a cool, more seasonal period coming up for most, nothing more.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Who came in and wrote Summer off then??


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


moomin75
15 January 2015 13:56:39


 


Who came in and wrote Summer off then??


Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Probably me!


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
SEMerc
15 January 2015 13:56:41


 


I know you've got your depressive mood hat on, but that really is pretty amazing considering we're only halfway through winter and we've a cold spell on the way!


March 2013 gave a couple of dustings of snow here, so although it was unusual it wasn't something I'll look fondly on in years to come. The end of February/beginning of March 2005 delivered half a foot of snow here  and it snowed every day for 14 days in a row. That's a good 7 weeks yet in which we can get deep snow which hangs around down here. Of course, by then the sun's heat starts to kick in but as long as you have cold enough air aloft, low enough dewpoints and most importantly frequent top-ups....


In the run-ups to 2009 and 2010 there were plenty of ensemble runs going for -10C at 850 for London, albeit only for short spikes. There have been fewer this time around. Also back then the 850s averaged out at around -7C, whereas this time they're clustering around -5C. That said, as long as dewpoints are low enough snow would be perfectly possible with -5C 850s!


Originally Posted by: Retron 


I'm glad you've said this. It's a nice counterbalance to the prophets of doom who've been out in force today.

kmoorman
15 January 2015 14:05:11


 


I'm glad you've said this. It's a nice counterbalance to the prophets of doom who've been out in force today.


Originally Posted by: SEMerc 


 


As opposed the Profits of Doom - in other words the Daily Express.


Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
Essan
15 January 2015 14:14:51


^^^ Wasn't far from the truth last summer Gooner...August was crap and autumnal and once we got past mid July, the models started showing it! So actually summer was pretty much over!


All in all though, a cool, more seasonal period coming up for most, nothing more.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 



What's been unseasonal about the past few weeks?  Remembering of course that this is Britain and not Siberia


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
moomin75
15 January 2015 14:27:58
Um 16 to 17 degrees in January is pretty much unseasonal Andy.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Retron
15 January 2015 14:30:17


What's been unseasonal about the past few weeks?  Remembering of course that this is Britain and not Siberia


Originally Posted by: Essan 


A) It's been exceptionally mild:


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html


B) Fewer frosts than the 81-2010 LTA (4 days in December/January so far compared to 9 or so LTA)


and C)


It's been snowless for many of us (0 days in December of snow falling/lying here compared to 1-2 falling and 1-2 lying LTA)


The trend has continued into January here.


It will be nice to see some colder conditions to help balance things out.


Leysdown, north Kent
Robertski
15 January 2015 14:31:49
I think most of would agree that we have had a pattern change and we are now in a period of wintry weather however this does not mean we will all see snow😐 in fact I would suggest that the south is more likely to rain and sleet than snow, but the chance for a good dump of the white stuff is possible anywhere 😀
Snowedin3
15 January 2015 14:33:04

Um 16 to 17 degrees in January is pretty much unseasonal Andy.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

'


 


 Kieron I know your a pessimist but sheesh your exhausting today, you were the same in 09 and 10 and look what happened, How can you be so sure it will pan out like you say it will when it's 5/6 days away is beyond me, I'm not saying it will deffinatly snow however we have a good a chance as any and to say another winter has passed us by on the 15th of jan is absurd.


Dean Barnes
Finstock, Chipping Norton, Oxfordshire
160m ASL 525 Ft
Chiltern Blizzard
15 January 2015 14:46:47

Very downbeat mood in here, though I can understand it as, as it stands, it looks like the current odds favour  the south, especially those near coasts, not seeing much of interest compared to various post-2008 events.... 


Although ensembles show a good deal of consistencies in terms of 850 temps, which might make one think the outlook is pretty clear, this masks a significant range of synoptics patterns even at t+120 with winds from each and every direction shown, with such variation possible due to the general slackness of the pressure pattern.  Trying to second guess snowfall next week is therefore like trying to pin the tail on the donkey after 15 whiskys and having spun round 20 times with your head on a broom handle! 


Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
turbotubbs
15 January 2015 15:08:10

I for one cannot understand the downbeat mood in here. Its wierd, we spend months desperately looking at 240h charts for a sniff of cold and then, when we are on the verge of a decent cold spell (next 7 days are likely to see max temps no more then 5 deg C for much of the UK), with chances of precipitation interacting with some decently cold air, people start fretting and saying that it won't be cold enough. I despair. Maybe more of us need to take the extreme option of moving somewhere like Norway. We live in the UK. Many of us in the south of the UK. Look at the stats and remember that rhe reason 47, 63, 2010 were so memorable is because they were massive outliers in normal winter for the UK.


Predicting snow for the UK is usually best done at 24 - 12 hours ahead, as it is almost always marginal (at least for low level southerners). Worrying about chart 5 days and more ahead is a mugs game.


Am I saying that the country is about to enter Snowmaggedon, and grind to a halt as each and every one of us receives 12 - 24 inches of level lying snow and overnights of -20 deg? No of course not. But we are approaching a period of interest for those that love winter weather.


We do this every time. I am certain that during Dec 2010 (the coldest Dec for 100 years) many were wobbling and fretting about 240h charts, ignoring what was happening at much shorter range.


Relax and enjoy, and if you don't get snow in the next 7 days then bad luck and remember -it will still only be the 22nd Jan...


Rant over.

warrenb
15 January 2015 15:18:57
Some people in here are not even glass half empty people, they are hole in the glass people.

Look at the positives, it is going to get cold, it might snow. Don't hang on every run, check the ENS and be happy.


Jive Buddy
15 January 2015 15:23:18

Some people in here are not even glass half empty people, they are hole in the glass people.

Look at the positives, it is going to get cold, it might snow. Don't hang on every run, check the ENS and be happy.

Originally Posted by: warrenb 


Love that one!


It's the same old thing year after year - shame really, as it creates the illusion that the forum is downbeat, when it's not....it's just one or two individuals.


An easy way out though, is the 'Hide Posts' option under the uername. I have certain people blocked every winter as soon as they start silliness. Makes reading the thread a lot more pleasant


It's not over, until the fat Scandy sinks.....

Location: St. Mary Cray, S.E. London border with Kent.
kmoorman
15 January 2015 15:31:49

Not long now until the 12Z GFS starts to appear.   Which way will it go? 


Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
Snowedin3
15 January 2015 15:59:08
Some interesting features cropping up for the weekend through sat and Sunday on the 12z gfs would give a covering especially sunday.
Dean Barnes
Finstock, Chipping Norton, Oxfordshire
160m ASL 525 Ft
Gusty
15 January 2015 16:07:04

The basic pattern remains the same with cold air becoming established by Friday with features ambling down in the flow.


Many of us would have banked such a chart a couple of days ago.


Potential Potential Potential. 



Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



The Beast from the East
15 January 2015 16:08:07

slight upgrade


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011512/gfs-0-108.png?12


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
15 January 2015 16:09:28

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011512/gfs-2-114.png?12


Plenty of snow opportunies even for the south according to this run


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Snowedin3
15 January 2015 16:10:06
Snow fest for central southern England on this run, it will change again no doubt
Dean Barnes
Finstock, Chipping Norton, Oxfordshire
160m ASL 525 Ft
Whiteout
15 January 2015 16:13:57

Just shows, this is far from a done deal, the first LP is further West and flabby = snow for all but the SW on this run, this is going to be a rocky road to T+0 !!


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011512/gfs-0-108.png?12


Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
idj20
15 January 2015 16:15:05

You know what? I think the force is strong in this one, Padwan, as far as winter-like synoptics are concerned.

Probably be like a three-day wonder come next week but so most of our cold snowy snaps anyway - even our most memorable ones (mid February 2010 for example).


Folkestone Harbour. 
The Beast from the East
15 January 2015 16:15:29

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011512/gfs-2-138.png?12


Snow for 24 hours for some! Yeah right


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
15 January 2015 16:17:06

UKMO not that good unfortunately


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015011512/UW120-21.GIF?15-17


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President

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