http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011806/gfs-0-144.png?6

Yay!

Yesterday all the models had the atlantic blasting through by now

This morning's models proving once again that when the weather get's cold and blocked you can't look too far ahead, especially when it comes to possible breakdowns.

Still cold at nights: Even by end of next week into weekend:

Azores high influence is diminishing by fractions on each GFS run at this timeframe, a time of gentle upgrades perhaps?

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011806/gfsnh-0-162.png?6

Edge of reality now but the trend remains good. More energy going under but the block is still too far away

We might get some frontal snow events before the breakdown

its a classic Atlantic Scandi HP stand off with the Ul sitting in the middle on the edge .The influence from the east slowly backs off but occasional surges back.Even out at 192h and 240h 40% of the GEFS 0h ens are on the cold side.

Temps of 0c for many next Saturday

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn15017.gif 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011806/gfsnh-0-192.png?6

Western forces bringing out the big guns now. But the Red army still holding on!

While its still there, worth looking at the 00z Control

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015011800/gens-0-1-192.png

Indeed. The Bergen and Oslo ENS have also flipped with more settled HP options compared to Yesterday. That's my snowfalls on hold for the rest of the month  Unless.... small disturbances can develop to my NW and skirt the W of Central/Mid Norway.

More importantly imo there's a shallow Arctic high there, which begins to form as early as 150 hrs:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=150&mode=0&carte=1

Could help proper northern blocking form next month.

So far out in FI but this could get tasty.  Much colder to the NE.

The fact that the Scandy high is showing more resistance is allowing what we all want to see - deep cold moving into W Russia (+222).

Whether if gets this far is LaLa land but it's a step in the right direction for sure.

Yes, but it will be heading for Ukraine.

Start to the middle of next week +252z High pressure builds on Scandinavia and the low pressures come to a halt and dive south and fizzle out. - Could this be a sign of a Scandi high blocking!?

Starting to look interesting in Fantasy Island, see if the trend is maintained over subsequent days and runs and ensembles....

Edit - the block doesnt hold much in deep FI. Interesting times in that there is resistance to an Atlantic onslaught.  

GFS finally disrupts the second (Friday-Saturday) trough... similar to ECM and again a slack mess across the UK with our home-grown cold pool bringing snow in some areas... restricted to a narrow band across Wales and CS England on the GFS run but perhaps more widespread on the ECM run.

After that, a low-riding Atlantic storm threatens to bring a blast from the west, but that assumes it even develops much - the 00z GFS was not interested and we saw another undercut of the Scandi High, though not executed very effectively for us.

Even the 06z, with a powerful storm, has a go... surely a good sign, shame ECM didn't quite pull it off on the 00z.

A huge Scandi/Siberian high lurking not far away is often a good thing to have in late January, as the westerlies often relent through February. Potential is the buzzword.

Low pressure system never really making it eastwards across the country even into next weekend - just fizzling out as it does so which ties in with the Met Office monthly forecast.

Extended 0z ECM ensembles for London:

Friday's low is now prediected to disrupt (or slide, as some would say), the only uncertainty is the exact location of the disruption. Further east = warner, further west = colder. Saturday is cold but by Sunday there's another potential trough disruption event. If the trough disrupts and it's to the west it stays cold (~50% of members) whereas if it disrupts to the east or doesn't disrupt at all then it becomes much milder (the other 50% of the runs).

I appreciate the ECM 0z and GFS 6z *may* be the start of a trend for the blocking to the E to hold on, but obviously we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves. I suspect the reality will be somewhere between the progressive runs of the past day or two, and this new suggested evolution.

My forecast for the post-Thursday period would be for Atlantic systems to show some disruption, but this taking place toward the east of the UK, meaning the western half and much of southern England will see rain away from higher altitude areas, with the east (from around Lincolnshire northwards) seeing more in the way of snow.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015011806/gensnh-0-1-312.png

Miles and miles away in FI but the control stay blocked

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015011806/gensnh-0-0-348.png

And rather chilly