theweatheroutlook

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sriram
22 January 2015 14:31:23
Just seen gavin p's update - thanks for that gavin

It does not look good for winter fans

Azores high to stay for good it seems

People might say this winter is better than last year - yes it is a bit better - but still falls way short of requirements

- 1 week of severe cold and snow in a mild winter will suit me fine rather than pathetic short cold spells with no severe cold and big snow events

What people forget is that people remember the severe cold snowy spells - even if the rest of the winter is poor - rather than cold weather and mild spells mixed in like this winter with no big snow events or big freeze
Sriram
Sedgley, West Midlands ( just south of Wolverhampton )
162m ASL
Saint Snow
22 January 2015 14:59:10


 


 


james - the ECM op made a pigs ear of the strat split at the turn of the year compared to gfs. This evolution to displaced Siberian vortex was trailed by the gfs prior to day 10 when we are able to see ECM version. Clearly, a couple of days ago, ECM decided that this mid/upper strat profile would downwell almost immediately into the trop. andrej on NW showed a 3D representation of the upcoming displacement which showed the trop euro trough being a direct result of the upper strat activity. 


 


Now ECM has kept with the solution (op and ens) whilst gfs toyed with it on a couple of runs before deciding it would not be as deep nor as far west as a consequence. More Azores influence.  I wonder if the extra vertical resolution of the ECM is resolving the situation better than gfs? I certainly wouldn't expect the gefs to necessarily see it and especially post day 8.


I also note note that over recent ECM ens runs, the attempt to split the vortex through n Greenland from the Alaskan ridge continually wavers as the ECM ens enter their low res post day 10.  


Im in not saying there is anything in that but whilst the high res ens keep the feature at day 10, I continue to wonder if it will be more of a player in the 10/15 day period than currently modelled.


 


rst 


Originally Posted by: nickl 


 


Good points, Nick 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Whiteout
22 January 2015 15:56:21

I find it interesting that really this winter's story has been North Westerlies interspersed by South Westerlies and rinse and repeat.


For me there is little chance of a meaningful cold spell in the south now but with the continuing NW incurrsions still some interest for the North.


Still I have seen falling snow and had some snow lying so it is better then last winter!


 

Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
turbotubbs
22 January 2015 16:06:57


I find it interesting that really this winter's story has been North Westerlies interspersed by South Westerlies and rinse and repeat.


For me there is little chance of a meaningful cold spell in the south now but with the continuing NW incurrsions still some interest for the North.


Still I have seen falling snow and had some snow lying so it is better then last winter!


 


Originally Posted by: Whiteout 

I am not so resigned - I think it is easy to throw in the towel far too soon. The epic winter of 1947 really got going on Jan 21st. I am NOT saying we are due 6 weeks like that, but the point is surely it is possible to have very cold and snowy weather at any time through Feb and into March. Just because the NWP for the next 10-14 days does not at this time show epic cold does not mean we should write off winter.

Saint Snow
22 January 2015 16:47:09

The epic winter of 1947...


Originally Posted by: turbotubbs 


 


You win the prize!!!!


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Sinky1970
22 January 2015 16:58:27
Again nothing exceptional in the long term, just constant waves of mild and cool, roll on the spring and some warm sunshine.
David M Porter
22 January 2015 17:04:42

New thread on the way, closing shortly.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022

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