Bet you clicked on the link though

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 Very good - that did make me chuckle

So had the day off today - family, friends, life, that sort of thing. I see we're as undecided about this week as we were.

PS: Anyone on ENS watch have a browse at the control. It does something very strange later on.

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As you all love these

 

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From Mr Murr on NW

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Oh look. A Murr Sausage!

 

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Ooooh! I'm in the mixing zone. I'm either going to have to get myself a rapper's name, or get some vodka and lemonade in. 

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Just had a quick look at the GFS Precip charts for a laugh. Where did Wednesday night's snow go? 

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Looks like a distinct lack of favourable clusters this morning.

Someone will no doubt explain how the stratosphere will be gas mark 7 in three weeks causing a snow shower in Blackpool, but there has been a easing from the theme to disrupt the second trough so we're back to a westerly drift again by the weekend and almost where we were last Friday. Shame - I was liking the build of heights to our NE these last few runs.

We do of course have some weather much closer to hand.

 

 

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Latest Beeb forecast very underwhelming for Wednesday showed rain for most maybe some hill snow? Goes against there own website which has snow for many. A slow rise in temps to mild looks likely from Friday now.

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I thought Matty H was a rappers name...

I think this cold spell never looked right from the beginning. Get it over with ASAP and hope for another shot at HLB next month

Next please!

 

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I think we may have pinched it going by some of the latest outputs. Seems even I may get to see some of the white stuff associated with a very weak shallow low pressure cell creeping along the Channel on Wednesday afternoon/evening if what I'm seeing is to be believed.

However, when it comes to this kind of thing, even 36 hours might as well be 360 hours away in forecasting terms. The 950 and 850 hpas might just about be favourable for it - but I think the dewpoints may let the side down unless we have enough of a pull in from the near Continent. And that's assuming there'll be enough precipitation to play about with in the first place (well, we have had enough rain so far this month so why break the habit).

Looking further ahead, it looks like the eventual return to less cold conditions by the weekend is likely to take place without too much in the way of drama (hoping to be dry and bright by the weekend, I'll take that).

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Very quick post as I'm at work - but suffice to say EPS median highs for 24th on (Reading) have gone from:

4 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 4 (12z yesterday)

to

4 / 4 / 9 / 4 / 4 (0z today)

Quite a remarkable rise on the 26th!

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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY MONDAY JANUARY 19TH 2015.

NEXT UPDATE TUESDAY JANUARY 20TH 2015 08:00

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A slack and cold airflow will persist today with a weakening occluded front approaching the West of the UK tonight and moving slowly East tomorrow, weakening further.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather cold and unsettled with rain or snow in places. Frost at times. Perhaps becoming less cold with rain at times next week.

THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow flattening out over Europe later this week and beyond as the trough over the Med finally lifts out. We then have a more traditional Jet flow for the time of year just to the South of the UK and on across Germany in a more mobile Atlantic feed fuelled by Low pressure to the North of the UK.

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows a rather cold or cold eek this week with fronts moving in from the west and weakening and eventually collapsing as they move SE. Some rain, sleet or snow can be expected as they cross though amounts will generally be quite small. The process repeats at the end of the week before the milder Atlantic westerly winds break through briefly. Then further disrupting Low pressure moves SE over the UK with further rain and snow through the second week with temperatures generally maintained on the cold side of average for most.

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run is very similar in pattern with the cold weather generally ahnging on well into next week with this weeks disrupting troughs and Low pressure delivering occasional spells of rain or snow before a cold ridge at the weekend brings cold and frosty weather before the next batch of Low pressure slides SE next week with further rain and snow. The end of the run does show a more traditional Westerly flow setting in across the UK eventually.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today have sided with Low pressure lying to the North of the UK and NW Europe with rather chilly and unsettled Westerly airflow conditions by far the most likely position we will end up with in both 10 and 14 days with rain at times and hill snow in places.

UKMO UKMO this morning also shows troughs of Low pressure slipping SE across the UK midweek with a mix of rain and snow before a drier phase later in the week. Then the pattern repeats on Friday before milder atlantic winds look poised to cross most parts of the UK over the weekend with some rain at times across the North but still cold conditions for rather longer over the South.

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts continue to illustrate a series of troughs edging slowly East across the UK with a mix of rain, sleet and snow for many at times. It also shows a repeating pattern of this towards the weekend.

GEM GEM today also keeps the theme of the other models in showing a week of disrupting troughs of Low pressure sliding away SE over and away from the UK with smoe rain and snow events for some as they go. It's trend does repeat the pattern at the end of the week but then goes the way of the other output in releasing milder Westerly winds to cross the UK from the Atlantic early next week following a ridge of High pressure over the weekend.

NAVGEM NAVGEM is rather less progressive in bringing in Atlantic Westerly winds at the end of it's output with pressure staying quite High towards the SE and SW winds blowing across the UK with attendant milder air for the North and West at least. A weakening toughs brings rain across the UK before the front bringing it weakens and slows across Southern Britain a week from now.

ECM ECM this morning too maintains a rather cold period this week as troughs of Low pressure run SE down across the UK midweek and again at the end of the week with a mix of rain, sleet and snow at times for some. Following the second push milder air affects the North over the weekend and this extends South to all areas under Westerly winds early next week with rain at times and nearer to average temperatures.

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart is trending towards a flatter pattern as the trough to the East of the UK lifts out somewhat by 10 days time at the same time as moving further to the East. This allows a push of milder Westerly winds across the UK under Low pressure to the North and High to the SW with rain at times and nearer to average temperatures more likely though still cold enough for some wintry showers over Northern hills at times.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The main trend this morning is a firming up of the cold weather being released over next weekend with next week looking rather milder from all models with a return to westerly winds and rain at times for all.

MY THOUGHTS It seems this morning that the cold weather currently being experienced by the whole UK will release it's grip from the West come the weekend for the North and in the South too early next week. In the meantine it's the pattern as before with disrupting troughs of Low pressure sliding SE down over and away from the UK with outbreaks of rain and snow affecting many parts at times through the working part of this week. Amounts of wintry precipitation doesn't look likely to be particularly bothersome on a nationwide scale although no doubt a few locations will do OK out of these troughs as they slide through. Frosts of course will be prevalent where skies clear overnight but temperatures should exceed freezing point almost everywhere by day. Then we look towards the weekend and next week to see a ridge of High pressure give some frosty and cold weather for many especially the South while the North and West gradually see a feed of less cold SW winds develop with rain at times and this is shown by most output to work it's way down into Southern Britain too by next week with temperatures returning to closer to average and some rain at times for many. The problem is that this has a high percentage likelihood of happening as we have received little help from High pressure to the NE which is too far away to hold back the Atlantic push expected next weekend. Our old friend the Azores High is also much too prominent to the SW and could of done being more displaced towards a location further West than is programmed as it continues to feed repeated pushes of warm air around it's Northern flank towards the UK next weekend. A ridge from the Azores High at the weekend across the South of the UK cuts off the path of depressions and fronts from feeding SE and instead sending them NE towards Scandinavia instead and returning milder WSW winds across the UK. So in summary this morning it looks like we have another 4-6 days of cold weather with some snow opportunities in places and frost at night before the inevitable slip into a more traditional mix of Westerly winds and rain at times returns next week.

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Are we allowed an attempt at some snow first?

00z GFS dewpoints looking rather marginal for snow here Tuesday night, better on EURO4.

MetO raw data showing quite a significant event here now with heavy snow tomorrow evening all Tuesday evening and throughout the night into Wednesday.

We'll see!

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Carol only mentioning hill snow for the North of England with rain elsewhere. Doesn't look promising!

I hadn't seen any TV broadcasts so that's news to me. That's certainly at odds with SOME of the data. And Steve Murr. :p

I'm not entirely convinced either way, quite yet.

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Looks like a return to the default weather pattern for this winter next week, with alternating TM and PM air in a mobile westerly regime. This week I don't see much in the way of any lowland snow as any fronts seem to fizzle out the more East they progress with the MEtO having none if it unless you live on a hill.

The 06z GFS brings back the heavy snow from 42hs onwards with a fair bit for Northern England and the Midlands.

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IMO the reason why these marginal situations don't seem to deliver the goods these days is down to the AMO still being in its positive phase, hence the Atlantic is warmer than average. Until we see this switch to its negative phase which isn't due until sometime after 2020, then we'll continue to struggle with these sort of set ups.

https://twitter.com/MattHugo81/status/557121850560761857

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I'm expecting nothing but some sleet/rain IMBY tomorrow evening/night, as there just isn't the deep cold this far west to resist the milder air onslaught. Manchester might be a little more fortunate, although again I feel some altitude (100m+) will be needed for settling snow of any note

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