Equally id Witney had sub zero daytime Maxes and 10" of snow you wouldn't be happy

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015012406/gensnh-0-1-228.png

Almost a greeny and later almost a Scandi

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015012406/gensnh-0-1-312.png

but ens mean doesnt give support to building heights

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015012406/gens-21-1-240.png

I don't believe this but this is J.F.F: - I wonder if any of these FI charts has ever come true!? How many times do we get let down run after run!?

None of the GEFS sustain northern blocking. Some of them try but they all fail. Ties in with the METO updates and Fergie's thoughts that we will have to wait till mid month.

which at three weeks from now isn't worth a jot as far as pinning any hopes on. 

From my point of view the sun is starting to climb by late November, and any northerly with associated sunshine and usually light winds genuinely would feel warm in the sun, as so many commented on in here yesterday. 

Although that maybe true, I don't think GFS were making much of anything a couple of days ago, anyway? The Manchester 850hps Thursday 0z ensembles didn't seem to show that much of an interest to such a possibility.

This seems to have snuck up on GFS this? 

Midweek looks quite interesting for the chance of falling snow in the south. Always a chance it will turn out to be the 'event' of the winter. IIRC we had something similar in 2000 or 2001 which brought disruption to Luton airport for a few hours.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx 

I don't quite get the pessimism in here. It's true that there is no extensive (or any) northern blocking shown, but there never truly was on a run-to-run basis. With ensemble forecasts like these for Cambridge (see below), the possibilities clearly exist into the medium and long range period. Nothing major but at the same time another notable and prolonged period of below average temps. We saw last time around that possibilities crop up once the cold air is in place, so as long as charts like these are shown the possibility exists for cold and snow.

I too would like to see a raging Easterly, a famour 'Murr Sausage' and some kind of HLB over Greenland, but unless we have supercharged strat warming in the coming week or two, we surely can't sniff at charts like these in the meantime. I've seen falling snow 3 times this winter having had no Easterly, no genuine frontal snow and no major convection. Things can happen...

For a Northerly to be of interest to me here in the southern flatlands it would have to be a straight run from somewhere north of Svarlbard giving local T850s of -10 or better.

Such events are as rare as hen's teeth unfortunately but they have happened, e.g.

Which gave rise to this

The current output doesn't seem to show anything in this league.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fJKiW_RIDRM

A

The sun doesn't climb from late November its around the second week of January onwards that the sun start to slowly climb.

Anyway the days grow longer but the cold keeps growing stronger!

I have absolutely no idea why, but my iPad corrected. I wrote February. 

Edit: perhaps it went to the same school of weather as P1ers ***** and Madden. 

lol :D 

Well actually it's late December when she starts to climb again 😛

I am more interested in what might happen beyond the initial northerly, as the Euro trough has the potential to slowly ease south with a ridge over the top that could originate over Greenland - good for importing some properly cold air to the UK from the NE or E.

Currently this is beyond anything close to reliable modelling, with hints on the ECM and GEM op runs being about as far as things get at the moment. What's clear is that the Atlantic jet will need to be either walled off or heavily disrupted to prevent the pattern flattening out beyond day 7 or 8 and wiping out this potential.

The ensembles are unlikely to handle that well at all, regardless of whether it will actually happen or not... for example GEFS in particular were slow to come around to the idea of a sliding low for Tue-Wed this past week.

I'd be amazed if major blocking established from this round of potential and held on to our NW for days on end, as the vortex doesn't quite look weak enough for that yet - perhaps it will be toward the middle of February though, if signs of strong strat. warming attacking an already displaced vortex are along the right lines. The GFS 06z is the first run from that model to show the warming being able to keep the strat. vortex displaced right out to day 16, which is a good sign.

Out of interest why is the former censored on TWO?

*****corbyn

I'll pm you or Brian will have kittens 

I can understand some pessimism after last weeks let down which by the way I never bought into being anything other than a transitory cold phase but this current upcoming cold period differs in that there is total support from all models that a Northerly is likely and that was often missing last week. Secondly, the Northerly is fuelled by unusually deep Low pressure over nearby Europe which was also missing last time. I may be wrong and I'll hold my hands up if I am but I believe this Northerly could be the most pronounced one in recent years and while I concede might not be brilliant for snow in the South its a very different likelihood on upland areas exposed to the North where large amounts of snow and inevitable disruption is possible by next weekend.

With regard to longevity the Jury is still out but there are encouraging trends towards keeping pressure High over the Atlantic and the Met update today longer term hints of something from the NE maybe deeper into February. All in lala land at the moment but very exciting times model watching at the moment.

P.S. Sorry no report here this morning was running late for my first trade event of 2015.

May as well point out that unlike most northerlies in the UK, which see high pressure building in from the west quite quickly, reducing instability even as the cold air is still arriving in the south, this one has LP looking to stick around very close to the UK, which will maintain instability and increase the chances of small-scale disturbances bringing local or regional interest.

The position of the LP could also entrain some continental air into the mix if we get a bit of luck. That can make all the difference in marginal situations. As it is, I currently have my range of expectations IMBY limited to brief snow or soft hail showers for next weekend... for the sake of sanity.

Obviously this will be rendered invalid if the LP position shifts east compared to the latest projections, so that's another important aspect to keep a close eye on. The trend of the past 24 hours has been further west and recent runs are close to ideal... only room for improvement is adjustments south I suppose, which does mean plenty of scope for downgrades if you're of the glass-half-full persuasion.

Oh god forbid