http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.gif

Screaming NWly

BUT

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn9617.gif

No doubt Matty and Jacko will be sat outside in their Budgy Smugglers

Cold air soon across all of the UK

Thursday morning looks interesting for here.

Strong WNW'ly, frequent hail sleet and snow showers pushing in off the Irish Sea. Uppers, dewpoints and 2m temps look ok too! 

Really hope this one doesn't go the shape of the pear. 

Decent from UKMO

Best chart from the Met/o model all winter.

With thicknesses for 500-1000hPa at c. 523dam in a few places it may be cold enough for snow.

The Northerly looks pretty much a cert now - detail is what we now apply in subsequent runs.
As I said earlier expectations should remain tempered by the moderate uppers being pulled down by the low - this is not a classic Arctic blast by any stretch as currently modelled and if those uppers and dams remain as they are, many places are looking only at 'wintry' showers and not snow showers as some might think looking at the SLP only.
Let's see what develops, but I for one will not be forecasting snow here as it stands.

The potential problem is that at this range, the last coolish snap was being shown with similarly decent uppers, DP's and 2m's.

On the other hand, it wouldn't be the first time that one or two much-heralded cold spells haven't come off as hoped, only for a further one to subsequently deliver when people, jaded by recent failures, abandon real hope.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015012412/gfsnh-0-240.png?12

LP moves away earlier on this run.

Have a week of interesting weather to come for sure

How poetic

Cold weather fans (that is, enthusiasts of proper winter weather in winter) can be very forgiving and tend to have short memories for failed model performances, but on the other hand are in the main realistic when it comes to expectations. The forecast cold snap next weekend is, as it stands, not going to deliver nationwide snowfall. Yes the usual suspects will be favoured, but most of us know that it's wintry showers for most.

Time for changes though.

Its rare to get nationwide snowfalls in this country even if you are in a proper cold spell.

Amazing ukmo at 120 and 144 has to be a snow fest surely? 

Don't tell Neil that

Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

So on this note - JUST FOR FRUSTRATION: - Do you think that these wintry showers (as forecasted by model charts) could materialise middle of next week? - been consistent for several runs now. 

Maybe if you go with the GFS but you would hope the ukmo and the ECM would handle a European trough better. Both show widespread snow.

With thicknesses circa 523-525dam or so I would be very cautious about predicting widespread snow. If the t850s are similar to the GFS then it would be very marginal on lower ground IMO.

Could the cold front whizzing through on Wednesday producing a thunder snow event similar to 2003? If it keeps on being modeled like it is on GFS then it'd be a pretty interesting one. 

And a lot of snow for some 

those thicknesses suggest the right side of marginal for most. You should be sitting pretty for plenty of snow 

So a deja-vu of last weeks cold snap?

Control looking for a quick repeat

GEFS12z runs are worth stepping through today because I don't think the line graphs will tell the whole story. When looked at individually they are quite messy, but as you'd expect the general theme is head farther north for a better chance of snow.  

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/latest.aspx