We may get a Cheshire Gap effect from this with any luck.

The operational GFS & ECM 8-10 day means showing a good pattern with a trough over eastern US and a trough in western Europe with a strong mid-Atlantic ridge in between:

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html 

These charts suggests a week long cold spell at least. They also don't support the myth some people on TWO spout that you can't get a cold spell in the UK when eastern US is cold. Reality is that this happens often in winter because the shorter wavelengths can support a quasi-stationary low in the eastern US and western Europe such that both areas are under cold pools.

Last winter was certainly different with the cold from Canada going south further west into the central plains and giving rise to a very strong Atlantic jet. Other factors last year such as positive QBO favoured a flat Atlantic jet. This year, partly because of the negative QBO, we have a wonderful convoluted jet across the Atlantic forecast for a week or so which can be stable and support a prolonged cold spell on occasions.

Looking good if you like cold and snow!

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Gibby's post is excellent and sensible. However, I can fully understand the negativity of many on here, since at face value we really do look like having a repeat of the recent cold spell, which turned out to be a damp squib for lowland England where there majority of people happen to live. So, great for upland areas in the north and west, but average winter fare elsewhere. So, a few decent frosts, some cold sleet and rain followed by the next mild sector. Looking at GFS in the reliable timeframe, that is what it looks like to me.If it is persistent, lying snow you are after, visit the Staffordshire Moorlands, the Peak District or the Brecon Beacons.

 

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 It's going to be an interesting and ultimately perhaps newsworthy spell after Weds for a few days but detail tbc. 

Latest from IF

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Yes, it's looking potentially very tasty from Wednesday evening for four days or so.

Warnings out for the NW from weds onwards already.

ECM ensembles interesting as there is a marked split at about day 10 between cold and mild. I would say a breakdown early the first week of Feb looks the more likely, but quite a few days of cold weather likely before then.

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Warnings are now out for the North for Wednesday / Thursday

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No chance!

Seriously, good advice from the Gibbmeister there.

Above all the speculation and analysis I would recommend viewing the week outlook on CF this evening - as decent a synopsis as you're likely to get (except Gibby, SC and others I could mention on here of course).

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GFS is incredibly different from ECM and UKMO at just 144 hours. Trough extending way out to the west giving west/even southwest winds.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

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And the wording adequately reflects the current modelled parameters, such as 'especially overnight' and 'away from windward coasts'.
The absolute maxima may look high but with low heights, ppn will bring temperatures down readily and with them the snow. This is more likely at night with the lower air temperatures, and again more likely away from windward coasts without the maritime mixing going on.

If I was to locate favoured areas I'd say all Scotland, The Lakes, N Wales and later the NYMoors for instance could see quite a bit of snow by this time next weekend. Other areas at the mercy of disturbances, timing, mild sectors, etc, but that's me wandering into speculation too far in advance and I never do that

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That would explain the metoffice having westerly winds for me on Thursday with a chance of a rain shower. High of 5C. 

Looks like the signal for the azores high to move in on day 9/10 is going to happen as it appears on all of the models

 

All subject to change but Wednesday night into Thursday it is then!?

Would this be similar to that thundersnow event we had back on 28th/29th Jan 2004!? - Coincidence same date and day and similar set up!?

I remember temps rose rapidly starting at 8.5c then rapidly falling to 5c and a few hours later +1c to 2c with wet snow and this got lighter and temps plummeted to -1.5c with flakes of powdery snow and left a dusting by the end of the night into early hours.

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No it doesn't. 

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Certainly looks like GFS is picking up shortwave development that ECM and UKMO are missing. Often the way. ECM shows a straight northerly which usually never happens. GFS develops the trough much more so it cuts off the cold flow. Remember- if anything can disrupt the cold, it will 😉

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hope so for you Sinky, best of luck with the Op.😊

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Can you please post the links for this??

Good idea to start with the UKMO 216 and 240 charts

 

Cheers

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GFS 6z

Massively different between ECM and GFS

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What makes it look like that this upcoming cold spell is going to be much longer than 5 or 6 days, as soon as high pressure is near to the south or southwest of the UK a milder atlantic airstream is always dragged in. Bearing in mind i'm only refering to the current GFS chart and i apologise and discount the ECMWF chart.

And the UKMO ........................at D6

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The Met Office didn't get the previous cold spell correct for my part of the country and kept changing the forecast almost hourly regarding snowfall (which we had about half an hour of, not up to 12 which was initially forecast), Trends are forecast and these are often wrong.

The short 06z ensembles are out and show the 06z op solution was a milder outlier for next weekend, so it may well be overdoing the trough development. Expect something in between the UKMO/ECM and GFS/GEM/NAVGEM. Cold but not very cold and a slow disintegration to the norm next week - although there is plenty of time for that to change and cold weather may last most of next week - as per the METO forecast.

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Wise word. I can sense the snow ramping already, and there's really very little suggestion away from favoured areas at this time. Cold - yes. Snowy? At this precise moment, not for the majority of England away from facing coasts and uplands. 

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Latest Fax chart for Wednesday shows the 528 line racing South

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Also worth pointing out that there is an emerging trend (albeit not a very strong one) for the azores high to ridge in form the SW up to scandinavia around day 9/10 as per the 00z control run(and more strongly on the 06z run) - which may prolong the cold in the south . Appearing on several GEFS runs now.

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