Agreed, and 850s are genually a bad habbit at close range anyway. The only thing I would say is that as the warm sector is occluded out at the surface, some warm air is still going to be present above the surface near the centre of the LP, particularly if it is centred over the sea (and therefore cannot cool), the coldest air in these situs is often unfortunately somewhat away from the LP centre, which means if it draws too close the snow could turn to rain particularly in (and you don't get to say this often) the east.

Looks pretty good to me.

intresting post by murr on NW  

When we saw the PPN in the cold air last week we were really scratching around with dewpoints @ between -0.5 & +0.5 / +1 making it very marginal-

The depth of the cold front clearing through weds night has a clear deep polar signal with a strong cold dewpoint line all the way from the south coast to the North! - its clearly visible here

http://modeles2.mete...101UK.GIF?25-12

This very dry air will help quickly reduce surface temps to freezing-

Theta chart

http://modeles.meteo...gfs-6-90.png?12  10c &

uppers

http://modeles.meteo...gfs-1-84.png?12 -6/-7

At T90 a band of SNOW - not rain & sleet looks to slide across the south.

In terms of probability of falling & possible settling snow- its the south of englands best chance this winter ( also the showers piling into the NW as well- which of course will be snow )

The daily express has just come out with the headline about freezing weather on the way

This normally guarantees that it will be mild !

Fascinating output so far this evening.

A couple of my favourite charts:-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn901.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn9017.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn9010.gif

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Classic setup for here that doesn't happen all that often. Those surface temps and dewpoints are more than capable of allowing snow showers, heavy ones at that.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif - looks pretty good on Friday too.

The 'raw' MetO data doesn't seem to agree though, all my app shows is rain for here so far.  Which is why I'm going to reign in my excitement.

I'm also supposed to be driving up to the Lake District on Friday evening 

From Ian Fergusson;

W COUNTRY Good f'cast model agreement on broad theme Weds-Thurs (cold & windy; wintry showers). Varying outcomes by Sat (cold nonetheless!)

Our Hollywood Fans are amazingly more interested in the UK and NW C and N Europe Cold Polar Vortex and Low Polar Shortwaves Low's, It is set up nicely Newfoundland North Atlantic to UK airflow, with Arctic and E Canada NE USA High also bring to us the Bitterly Cold and wintry blustery showers thundery with rain snow, sleet and some Blizzards and hailstorms too.

Lengthy air frosts and and very cold sunshine clear blue sky with settling snow for the Lucky ones.

Certainly from next week Wednesday then following weekend, by then very cold subzero Arctic Northerly across UK, lasting for Ito the Thursday of the week after that weekend.

Roll on  Winter and watchful eyes on the coming cold spell - keep hopes high, Polar Express with many -7 to -17 deg.c Temperatures and day max temps at freezing and well below for maximums this January 2015 look hopefully breaking quite a lot of Cold CET UK records.

We live in hope best wishes to all on here.  W I N T E R Cold A R C T I C Circumpolar Vortex on the way for UK and NW Central and N Europe here we come.

Arctic High for Greenland with very Low 500hPa Heights and that UK System also very Cold 500hPa Heights and Temps.

Can't quite understand why the GFS precipitation charts ./GFS  show sleet and snow showers all over the whole of the UK come Wednesday evening into Thursday yet the BBC forecast rain showers and a high of 10c for the south:

which one, BBC or GFS... Or both!

Not bad at all from the ECM 12z.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.gif

Staying cold, possible slider out west

ECM 144 agreeing with UKMO

Yes good run so far plenty of marginal snow events look possible. 

ECM 192 keeping us cold

A LP into the North

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015012512/ECH1-216.GIF?25-0

Still in the unstable flow at 216............................only just , HP to topple in on the 240 , p'haps

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=306&y=141&ville=Londres

GFS long suite.

Good news in that the OP and control have swapped places, such that the more likely solution is now the colder one.

Yes it does but a long way out.

Surely a max of 10C is quite likely in the South Weds, this occurring early in the day and falling rapidly across the CF.
Not too difficult to understand IMO.

In fact the last few high-res runs have shown a shallow trough zipping across the South later on Weds in the colder air behind the front.

ECM aligns the LP nicely for keeping the cold across the UK this weekend and going into next week, just as UKMO does.

Days 8 and 9 feature the coldest slider low I've seen modelled in a long time - uppers barely get above -4*C in the warm sector! 

Given that even GFS, with it's lack of a direct northerly feed, produces parameters conducive to snow across the SW this weekend, we are in a very good position this evening... but with 5 days during which changes are probable.

Glad to have the Wednesday night event still firmly in the sights down here, an impressive plunge in temperatures Wednesday evening (GFS) or night (ECM) with the deeply unstable air mass bringing some showers and then a possible embedded disturbance producing something more noteworthy along a line west-east... where exactly is anyone's guess!