Ens:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=306&y=141&ville=Londres

Pretty much as is. Look at those high snow % for Thursday, shame, all we need is a precip spike!

Quite right, I do mean too low 

Though the flow Wednesday night is actually more westerly than northerly so the usual 'rules' don't apply in terms of having precipitation in the first place.

I suspect a real mix of rain, sleet and snow, the latter favoured toward dawn as the flow turns more to the NW, though precipitation fading out by that time away from the coasts.

The op isn't totally isolated then.

The spread really begins on Tuesday, and the op is one of a definite cold cluster - still in the minority, but there is support.

Its not a run of the mill northerly though. There is an incredibly deep trough to our East making the flow very unstable and winds are shown to be be NW, N and NE over the next week or so. Snow could pop up almost anywhere. Obviously though northern areas are most at risk. 

True.

I'm now growing increasingly confident that we will see some heavy snow showers here (even low lying Manchester) on Thursday morning, maybe even with some accumulations.

The 2m temps and dewpoints via GFS are comfortably below freezing, with a near perfect WNW'ly flow.

Temps do creep up during the day, so I think the showers will turn back to rain by lunchtime on Thursday, but conditions could well turn favourable again overnight into Friday morning.

A messy setup, but I currently think Thursday morning and Friday morning rush hours, could be potentially snowy.

Needless to say, Buxton is going to get completely buried, and the raw data on the MetO app for that Derbyshire town is mouth watering.

Looks that by midnight in Manchester we will certainly have the right conditions for falling and maybe accumulating snow. Which year was the last big snow train event? we had about 15cm from what I remember.

I think it's looking good for you in Durham Nick, the excitement might not be the amounts of snow on the ground after though but the conditions during it with the strong NW'ly Winds, blizzard conditions for a while I would imagine.

I honestly think we will see snow on Wednesday, Nick, conditions are unusually favourible to see the showers pushing well inland, and I think Northumberland will see showers just as the NW will (though not necessarily as frequent or heavy of course)

The south is a different matter, the airmass is just too moderated by the time you get south of Yorkshire, so here snow showers restricted to the west in the absense of any feature. 

Based on the 6z GFS run, thats my take on the two lows as well.  Doesn't look cold enough on Saturday but does on Tuesday. However Saturday is still 5 days away so there will probably be a lot of changes before then. Following Tuesday is just too far away to take seriously right now though worth keeping an eye on.  Not checked the 6Z ensembles yet.

It looks like southern area's will be let down yet again!! :(

All in all it's looking OK, and our best shot so far. GFS/ECM could obviously improve by removing the that milder blip on Friday/Saturday as the low sinks over the UK, but it'll do for now as I can't see how we avoid that in order to get the colder feed to filter south behind it. 

The GFS 2m temps chart really does show the cold front pushing through and the difference within a few hours ..

t54

t60

Fair dos. I've lost count of the number of NW references to ramping 

Didn't mean to come across like that Duane... it is just that I think parts of the media have gone o.t.t as I still think for much of the S, things remain on the wrong side of marginal - imo. You are correct in that snow will fall in places and overall, it will be a cold and wintry picture but when all said and done, cold PM air, I feel, will not deliver too much in the way of settling, disruptive snow for the majority in the S. I could be wrong, of course... and will acknowledge my failings if that should prove the case :-)

I'm sure you'll spare us a thought Mike as you're digging you're way through those 8ft snowdrifts

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png

Am I in a minority thinking that set is an upgrade to the 00Z set? Discounting the control, the OP takes several members on a ride down towards the -10 line that hardly any crossed last run.
There's plenty to keep the unbiased enthusiast engaged in the next week IMO.

looks like an upgrade to me. Really don't know what some of the downbeat posts are for- any shower activity over night would surely produce snow- I think snow is on the cards for many over a number of days. 

Time for me to go back into hibernation :-(

I agree Neil, I think it was a bit of an upgrade ( rose tinted glasses off for that comment) , I have to say I am happy with this Winter , had so many more frosts than last year , the charts are of much more interest and I've seen falling snow settle. Days have also been fairly chilly at times and we still have a month of Winter to run . Of course it all depends on what one's expectations are from the off , mine weren't that high and I certainly didn't get sucked into this OPI scam . Hopefully the 7 days or so will give us something to talk about

Plenty of features running through the UK.

Either I'm reading those charts wrongly, or your being sarcastic?   There's lots of cold there, surely?

Of course Neil 🙂 I do want it to snow in the UK... I love watching Sky News and listening to LBC with all the chaos and reports

The reason why I may have appeared negative is simply because it appears as things move into the reliable time frame, and almost inevitably, small shortwaves are being picked up which are cutting off the N'ly flow, at times, to some degree. This can bode well for heavy snow in places but I would have to say on the N and E side. NYM, Derbyshire Peaks, Pennines and Highland Scotland all looking good for snow.

I think the 06z ENS are perhaps marginally better.

I'm pretty sure Marcus is being sarcastic....  There's clearly lots of cold, plenty of sub-10 uppers for much of the UK, for much of the time.   The GFS 6am run is excellent for cold - any 'coldie' disappointed by it really needs to resign themselves to virtual permanent state of despair... that or move to Svalbard. 

Thanks - I thought I was going mad...  from a Southern perspective, the initial burst of cold air (wed night) has been edging slightly colder (850hpa) with each run, at least within the original spread.  We seem to be pretty firm on about -6C down here, which would be cold enough overnight for snow. We just need the precipitation