Cold and mostly dry imby

Look's good for the northweast though 

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015012518/108-574UK.GIF?25-18

The cold is not going anywhere fast once it sets in if the 18z is right

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015012518/gfsnh-0-168.png?18

Finding it hard to get excited about this from a Channel Island point of view. As with most blasts from the north its usually just cold and wet here.

We need to get an Easterly element into it for a result down here.

I'd say that's pretty high for Southern England... I would think that 95+% of the population south of B'ham live below 150m... I'm sure I might get corrected on this but I'm not aware of any significant town/city south of B'ham that's that high.

yep, although I can recall snow showers from the north before but nothing particularly noteworthy! Worth keeping an eye on developments though as any north-easterly or easterly with 850hpa of -6 or more could deliver at this time of year. -2 or -3 850hpa can deliver from the south-east especially for you Jersey folk but it often tends to be fairly dry from that direction.

Yeah, I'm miles out. A quick search shows the nearest reference point to me (Yate Rocks) is 97m - 285ft. Still better than being at sea level I guess, and probably explains why we usually do much better here than areas closer to the coast. 

Edit: miles off topic now, but on this site you can drop a marker and get your exact elevation. 

http://www.freemaptools.com/elevation-finder.htm

If this is accurate I'm at 93m - 306ft asl at least on this one the conversion is actually accurate, unlike the first one I used. 

JFF. -15/-16C windchill for us oop north might feel a tad fresh.

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015012518/228-290UK.GIF?25-18

More from Ian:

@MarkAnstee2 @liamdutton Hype. We anticipate *gradual* rtn to more W'ly-bias flow circa mid nxt week; no evidence for any prolonged N'ly.

@MarkAnstee2 @liamdutton equally, ECMWF & UKMO models agree that (displaced) strat polar vortex moves back & rtns to more 'normal' position

A lack of posts is indicative of a watering down of some of the charts seen over the last few days.

Both ECM and GFS have watered down the cold and in fact bring in milder W'ly air as the Azores HP comes back into play from as early as the start of next week. The situation is clearly changing on a daily basis but I still think it has/was been blown out of all proportion - with the level-headed folk keeping perspective ;-)

EDIT: Even the good sir I.F was ramping up a bit over the weekend IMO. It's funny how 12-24 hrs can change a view point so quickly....

Thought it was quiet in here. Just looked at the GFS and ECM. 

To me they look poor for southerners in terms of snow. Yesterday's GFS theme to back more westerly - cold westerly - is replicated on the ECM as well overnight. 

I'm in in High Wycombe at 206mtrs. The Chilterns are a favourable spot for snow in marginal situations, I am watching the models with interest as it is the precipitation amounts that will be key I'm by. 

There hasn't been any major shift in the outlook as far as I can see, but then general lowland snowfall was not high on my risk list.
Let's say there's been a slight widening in solutions looking at the London 850hPa groupings, with the GFS OP in the -5 to -6 group until next Tues, but plenty of others down to -7 or -8.
I am not discussing next Tues onwards - that will only get you confused.
Also, there has been no 'hype' here or excessive ramping so how can anyone be disappointed that the charts show pretty much what they have shown these last three days?
I think the GFS ppn type charts probably don't help the situation as they tend to be inaccurate beyond 48hrs. I think I might start posting excessive charts showing copious rain to balance things up a bit

The Express has thrown a spanner in the works yet again!  ;-)

More realistically because its Monday morning Mike

The GFS control is hinting at a bit of a 'slider', similar to ECM

Please don't mention that piece of crap like their opinion mattered. I am incredulous anyone in this country takes the slightest bit of notice to the garbage they spout, and to suggest they influence anyone with even a basic understanding of the weather and how it works is an insult.

IMO of course

No need to be pessimistic this morning a very good ecm and ukmo. Not so good GFS but why would an American model be better at forecasting the weather in the UK than a european and british one it wouldn't!

plenty of snow opportunities below cold air hangs on in the east until day 10

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm722.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm962.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1202.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

Big changes afoot in the ECM ensembles today...