Re Solar Cycles inaccurate post above - apart from the likes of Tallyho, who never listens or learns, I haven't really seen anyone in the south moaning about what is or is not in store. What I have seen is a lot of sensible and reasoned discussion overall on here. The reason I quoted this post is because there are some dreadful benchmark charts out there, and the GFS Precip charts are right up there in the misleading stakes on many occasions. As has been pointed out zillions of times. 

Sharp NW'ly, chilly air, with a feature running down the East coast? As Brian says, that's pretty darn interesting weather! 

Well the realisation hurts when there is cross model agreement of a diminished cold snap i.e downgrade ..................................................and then we get the 6z

Isn't model watching just great

And I assume you are somewhere in the middle ground? Always level-headed and never speculating?
Perhaps it would be better if anyone with an opinion just kept quiet.
Better still I'll ask Brian to simply link the automated text forecast to this thread so we all know where we stand.

Girth's chart above has snow written all over it for northwestern areas, and probably a fair way inland. 

Thats also a fairly pleasant chart for here. Probably a lot of sunshine, dry, and the welsh mountains will assure the wind isn't too much of a factor either. Will feel pleasant out of the breeze if that transpired. 

Will you have your Bermuda shorts on if the sun comes out, Matty?

Shortwaves are starting to be picked up in the mid-Atlantic and these are causing the usual volatility in the model output.

Overall, a less clear picture going into next week than was the case before.

This is why I've been very broad-brush with the situation next weekend, as the pendulum keeps shifting between snow being the dominant precipitation type and rain being dominant.

The exact positioning and intensity of the LP seems to be critical. Just look at how different the 06z is to the 00z as a result of the LP being centered further south and also deeper - there's a lot more mixing out of the cold air and Saturday's situation ends up being quite frankly disastrous for those trying to retain any lying (mostly shallow) snow. The 00z had DPs of zero or below all day, which is great for snow retention.

Unfortunately the ECM 00z was about as naff as the GFS 06z so best to keep expectations on the floor for now - but there's still a fair chance that the LP aligns more favourably as it does on the UKMO 00z so no need to throw toys out of prams.

I continue to be more interested in the potential early on Thursday across the S and SW. The 00z and 06z GFS runs both give me hour after hour of what appears to be a snow streamer event, but the 00z WRF has the dew points 2 or 3*C higher and just throws down some rain.

I can see two main reasons for this; the first is that the wind direction edges a little more S of west on the WRF run, while the second, probably more significant reason is a vast difference in the modeled dew points over the ocean.
Worryingly, I can see that GFS is a couple of degrees too high with the dew points in some parts of the Atlantic this morning, based on buoy observations.

If the model is failing to account for the influence of the Atlantic ocean on the dew points, it's consistent prediction of snow on Wednesday night may be totally far-fetched. That would be a real downer for me, as I can't see much to get interested in for the weekend at this point in time... but very typical of this winter so far.

I am already bracing myself for another letdown, to be on the safe side, and that's what I feel is advisable to others across SW and CS England.

EARLY NEXT WEEK - PERHAPS A LONGER PERIOD OF SNOW FOR THE SE:

Certainly cold enough by then:

I'm sorry if this has already been discussed further up, but are the forecast northerly conditions favourable for embedded polar lows? I vaguely recall discussions from yesteryears that some northerly setups are better than others?

6z very close to something very good in the last few frames with a nice GL high shame it's in FI but as a whole not a bad run at all!

We end the 06z on a Greenland Block and we look N/NE.

That chart nicely illustrates why this cold spell may take a few days to bed in. That pool of higher theta-e and 850s at the core of the small low is what is left of the push up into Scandinavia on Wednesday which then gets wrapped back down and eventually out over the weekend. Eventually if mixes out and decent cold air is brought down on the Northerly Sun - Tues.

Also of note - and apologies for being way off topic - but the very end of the 06Z GFS is the sort of chart all of us dream of. Deeply cold air ready to flood SW across the whole UK.

i didn't say people couldnt be pessimistic but that's what it is pessimism rather than reality. The snowiest week of the winter starts on Wednesday. That's the reality as it stands.

Yes you could well be right, but my argument is that most here are not 'pessimistic' but realistic. There is a huge difference.
I could also argue your statement 'the snowiest week of the winter starts on Wednesday - that's the reality as it stands' is as optimistic as some are 'pessimistic', and therefore as equally incongruous.

You couldn't have been more on topic if you tried

Sorry but saying it is very unlikely to snow in the South in a Northerly set-up is being realistic, when have Southern areas ever done well out of a Northerly? The 2004 Thundersnow event is all I can remember.

Scotland, NI and parts of NW England look like seeing some snow but that apart dry, sunny and a cold wind looks to be the order of the day.

Well said (on both counts!)

The 850's are a couple degrees to high IMO for widespread snow away from a bit of elevation.

And that FI chart is amazing.

Which ties in with the Met warning, High ground in the North, lower levels in NI & Scotland.

we could go round in circles here. But I would be very surprised that even in your location you dont see some snow from this cold spell. 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015012606/gfsnh-1-168.png?6

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015012606/gfsnh-1-174.png?6

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015012606/gfsnh-1-180.png?6

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015012606/gfsnh-1-192.png?6

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015012606/gfsnh-1-198.png?6

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015012606/gfsnh-1-210.png?6

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015012606/gfsnh-1-216.png?6

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015012606/gfsnh-1-228.png?6

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015012606/gfsnh-1-240.png?6

Gutted no real cold on the cards

It was pointed out to me this morning that the 850hPa level, due to the low pressure, is actually quite a bit lower than maybe you'd expect, which will help.

I assume you mean too low?

That would explain why GFS has consistently modelled snow from the front on Wednesday night for the south while none of the professional forecasts mention anything other than rain, I guess. The only mention of snow down here is in "wintry showers" after the front pushes through, which we all know don't actually exist in the south from a northerly. (And in any case the actual output just says rain showers and 5C on Thursday and Friday here...)