The ens mean says it all really. Perhaps time for things to swing back but this is looking like a standard northerly toppler scenario

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015012600/EDM1-240.GIF?26-12

What has been good recently is that very few on here have got carried away, most of us are seasoned 'winter watchers' and this 'cold snap' looked nothing more than the usual Northerly which as we head nearer the time looks like what we are going to get. For instance temps down here on Thu & Fri look about 5C hardly bitter lol!

As usual some on NW have got carried away, I am sure I even saw a post from IF stating it could be 'noteworthy'!

Here's to the sensible folk on TWO.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY MONDAY JANUARY 26TH 2015.

NEXT UPDATE TUESDAY JANUARY 27TH 2015 08:00

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure will follow the cold front out of SE Britain this morning. Then following the ridge will be a return to a milder SW flow with troughs affecting the NW by tomorrow gradually easing SE later.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming colder with snow showers or snow at times. Then becoming less cold and changeable again in Week 2.

THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Forecast shows a week long spell with a deep trough over Europe keeping the flow well South of the UK in NW winds. In week 2 the pattern flattens markedly over the Atlantic and Europe with the flow returning North across the UK between High pressure re-established to the South of the UK and Low to the North.

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows a colder plunge of Arctic winds later this week as Low pressure transfers SE down the North Sea and then further East over Europe. Winds from the NW then North will deliver snow showers to many later in the week with settling snow in places as well as longer sells of sleet or snow too here and there. Then as we move into next week less cold air spills down from the NW as High pressure becomes more dominant again close to SW Britain with outbreaks of rain and wintry showers at times in the North the likely pattern by the end of next week.

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run follows the operational this morning firming up on a rather quicker change back to less cold Westerly winds next week with some rain at times mostly in the North.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today support the operational and control runs much better than yesterday with a return to normal service of Westerly winds around Low pressure to the North and High pressure to the South as we move through next week with an almost two thirds majority supporting this pattern.

UKMO UKMO this morning continues to illustrate a dip into cold and wintry conditions later in the week as from Wednesday the currently benign weather pattern turns into strong NW then North winds with snow showers peppering all exposed locations facing North and giving rise to frosts by night and the risk of more sustained snowfall as disturbances will no doubt pop up at short notice and move South within the flow. This pattern taking us round to next Sunday though by then a ridge lies closer to the West to likely cut off the north flow early next week.

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts follow the tracks of the raw data well but due to their human input illustrate much clearer how unstable the cold airflow will be late this week with bands of organised wintry showers, many of snow sweeping down over the UK at times later this week and next weekend.

GEM GEM today is a little different to GFS in as much as it makes much more of the ridge over the Atlantic next weekend and over the start of the new week with ridging all the way to Iceland. The net result is shifting winds around to the NE and prolonging the cold for several more days than GFS as the High only slowly dislodges the cold winds from the NW late next week.

NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows the shift to cold and windy conditions too after Wednesday with Low pressure close by over the North Sea bringing showers or longer spells of wintry precipiation in places especially thise with exposure to the North and NW. The end of the run does illustrate a backing of winds towards the NW as the High pressure ridge over the Atlantic steadily collapses and eventually allowing milder winds to move into the Uk from the NW and west as we move through next week.

ECM ECM this morning also takes up the baton of somewhat less cold air filtering into the UK from the West and NW early next week as the High pressure ridge over the Atlantic collapses under pressure form Low's exiting Canada. It looks like taking quite a while for anything significantly less cold to reach the South with a High pressure ridge extending from the Azores across Southern Britain to Denmark with frosty conditions still possible here while the North sees milder Westerly winds and occasional rain.

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean this morning supports the evolution that Low pressure will lie to the NE and East of the UK over Scandinavia and Europe as well as Greenland. Contrastingly High pressure is shown to most likely to be ridged between the Azores and Iceland keeping the UK under a cold feed from the North.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend remains for much colder and windy weather later next week and through next weekend. The longevity of the spell has firmed up somewhat on milder conditions returning from the West as we move deeper into next week.

MY THOUGHTS There is little change in the output this morning with regard to the onset of the sharp cold spell midweek. However, there is some shift away from extending the cold too far into next week as most output has firmed up on the Atlantic ridge supporting the cold flow later this week collapsing SE and allowing a feed of less cold West or NW winds across the UK. It comes down once more to the inability of pressure to be able to build far enough North across the Atlantic towards Greenland or Iceland with only GEM offering much support in that field this morning. Nevertheless, this was always likely to be the most likely scenario to come out of this cold spell and unlike yesterday it is just that we now have almost cross model support for this to become the case. Coldies should not be disheartened however as in the short term nothing has changed and all parts of the UK can look forward to 5 or 6 days at least of cold North or NW winds driving down across the UK with sleet and snow showers and no doubt some longer spells of snow too in places. Frosts and windchill will be notable factors for many and no doubt some disruption is likely to develop in the North especially. Then as we move into next week winds look like backing more NW then West with more changeable conditions returning with bands of rain crossing East and followed by colder weather with wintry showers in the NW, in other terms a return to the pattern of much of the Winter thus far. This change looks likely it will be last to reach the SE with ECM indicating a cold ridge still across Southern Britain by Thursday of next week though this scenario is less likely having looked at the ECM 9 and 10 day mean chart. My own thoughts this morning that the cold will likely wane next week but I still think we are likely to see further attacks from the North later in February as the persistent pattern of the Winter up to this point now looks like persisting in the period towards the end of the meteorological Winter with little support for much chance of anything likely from the East while the polar vortex in the Greenland area remains so strong. For thise who like cold and snow sit back and enjoy what transpires from Wednesday. It is an ocean away from what we witnessed last Winter and is about the normal standard cold snap we experience in the UK, both in strength and duration.

Well, we get a half-decent greenie high building over the weekend only for it to me smashed to smithereens by the vortex taking up its normal residence - how many times have we seen this scupper the chance of any lengthy cold period.

FWIW the cold snap last week will deliver lower temps than the upcoming snap in the South yet it will feel colder later this week due to the wind chill.  I was not convinced by this Northerly in the first place so not too disappointed.

Instability in the flow may create a few surprises but it would need to be potent to reach down these parts. 

 The key line above is as the Azores high comes back into play again.The Azores HP has dominated winter so far. Meto probability charts in the Autumn suggested a HP positive anomaly to the west o of Rrealnd aand  a positive NAO.

Such a synoptic situation provides a west to NW flow over the UK.Occasionally when the Azores HP ridges north one would expect colder interludes as LP move more in  a NW to SE direction.

In the absence of any northern blocking,with  Jet forced north by strength of Azores HP this set up has dominated winter 2014/5

There does seem to be somewhat of a cult following over there so any hints (or misinterpretations) tend to cause a pied piper environment with inevitable disappointment. 

Today could be the start of a wobble but its likely with the vortex returning to normal so will the UK average temperature!

I don't think temps were ever forecasted to be that low Rob, it is the wind which will make it chilly, I would say 4-6 down South througn the period sounds about right.

I think having so many members can be a curse, because as you say when one starts ramping they all do, and those who are a bit more level headed get lost in the melee!

I think a lot of people could do with looking up the definition for the word 'interesting'. When I use it many people assume it translates into the phrase, 'it's going to snow'.  The word 'interesting' in its literal sense is appropriate for the current numerical output.

I guess it easy to write that from a cold and snowy Norway isn't it Mike.

I see very little change this morning with cold and wintry weather on offer from Thursday into to next week with a risk of snow in places before any breakdown.

Detail is impossible to try and pin down.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015012606/gfsnh-0-126.png?6

slightly more amplified so far

trough exiting the East coast is further west so we may have a better chance of building the ridge and holding the cold a little longer

I think the problem lies with those in the South wish casting  for a crappy Easterly to materialise as thats the only set up those in the South are interested in for cold. Meanwhile back in the real world those from the  North Midlands Northwards should see some wintry precipitation from Wednesday evening through to Thursday PM, granted it will be nothing special away from elevated areas and Scotland.

It just goes to show though  that without the necessary height rises over Greenland then the models will overdo any PM or  Northerly shots, it's crucial for the majority of the UK to get height rises over that area if you want a nationwide cold spell.

Still says snow Wed night

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015012606/66-574.GIF?26-6

Shame its the 06z but its an improvement

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015012606/gfsnh-0-156.png?6

lol, if there was actually any precipiation around! How many times have we discussed these charts........

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php

ECM op had no support and strong likelyhood of a return to normal atlantic weather. Quite a dramatic flip

A little harsh?

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015012606/gfsnh-0-168.png?6

Hopefully the start of a swing back to cold longer term solutions

I see the pessimists and the ' I told you so'ers' are out in force today. Very little has changed this morning a week long cold spell starts on Wednesday with snow for many including the south.

Still waiting for my first flakes of snow this winter down here, and not expecting upcoming cold spell to deliver anything either.

And its much colder with -8 to -10 850's moving down across the country.