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I'm pretty sure Marcus is being sarcastic.... There's clearly lots of cold, plenty of sub-10 uppers for much of the UK, for much of the time. The GFS 6am run is excellent for cold - any 'coldie' disappointed by it really needs to resign themselves to virtual permanent state of despair... that or move to Svalbard.
Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard
Spot on CB
Apologies Kmoorman
As I alluded to yesterday. The GFS charts (FI) seemed to finally be content with letting go on the anchors of the Azores high... letting it break free and engage with LPs running out of Scandi. Yesterday it moved north before settling over the uk...
Today the GFS FI finishes up with this: (the Azores has a little dance with scandi - before taking up this position.
This is extremely interesting in that its looks to be a very intense northerly plunge.. regardless of the ones weve had recently - this would be the real deal, and would deliver concentrated prolonged cold. As opposed to this weeks which seems to be very powerful initially - before milderair is sucked back around and dilutes the whole system.
We may not end up with the glory of the Greenland HP as above... but it does show something we havent seen in a while - a proper northerly, and continues a trend of losing the Azores HP.
All good things.
Hi all,
Here's today's video update;
Increasingly Cold + Wintry From Mid-Week;
http://www.gavsweathervids.com/
Growing threat of snow over weekend and next week.
Originally Posted by: Gooner
Though as SC explained earlier, the 6z is less good than 0z for snow over Saturday.... So 0z and 6z seem to be "the hope of a long term cold spel at the expense of snow earlier on" versus "better snow opportunities in the shorter term (i.e. Sat) with the cold spell fizzling out sooner". Although it's pretty safe to say that we should get a 'colder' spell of weather from north from the mid/later part of the week, the detail is far from sorted. For the south, although there's enough (for coldies) for 'hope', it's way too early for 'excitement', and there's a good chance it could still end up as uninspiring for snow as the last 'cold' spell.
Originally Posted by: Gavin P
Thanks for the video Gavin. Very interesting output. Still a good chance for lamp post watching...
Originally Posted by: ARTzeman
My local lamp post is primed and ready for Wednesday night
Thanks gav. Great vid as always. Hope you do one daily during this week regarding snow.
Originally Posted by: kmoorman
My lampost lightbulb went out once, it was out for most of the winter.
worst winter ever. :(
Sorry for the offtopic.
Well said (on both counts!)
The 850's are a couple degrees to high IMO for widespread snow away from a bit of elevation.
And that FI chart is amazing.
Originally Posted by: Saint Snow
Indeed. It's a very long shot I know, but it would be great if the FI section of the GFS 06z was repeated over the coming few GFS op runs.
Things may well improve for us coldies down South if you are after potential snow! Phil Avery on BBC Radio 4 weather was far more forthright on the cold spell later this week for the whole country,not just the North ...somewhat at odds with what I have been reading here over the last 24 hours on the model output discussion forum but we shall see once Wednesday's cold front has swept through ......
Originally Posted by: cultman1
I don't think so, it is going to be a Nationwide cold spell but it is the snow that will be restricted to the North.
On the 06Z the very cold air in the last stages of the northerly actually comes from north of Svalbard which is a rare thing. Experience suggests that in reality the flow will most probably be cut-off from the west well before this stage is reached, as this time frame gets into reliable modelling range. Time, as ever, will tell - and it makes for interesting model watching.
Just to annoy Matty
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015012612/60-574.GIF?26-12
An upgrade on the phantom "snow" potential
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015012612/gfsnh-0-96.png?12
Similar to the 06z so far
Seems like a cleaner more direct northerly with fewer warm bits
Are any 'polar lows being' suggested considering the long fetch of the arctic air ?
Originally Posted by: moabutah
A kink visible around 18z in the Irish Sea for Thursday. Not sure if it is a PL though, probably just a regular trough.
Still going for a (hopefully) temporary warm up on Friday, but doesn't look like it'll last too long...
http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015012612/UN96-21.GIF?26-17
UKMO
Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East
Interestingly, I am surprised that there is no snow warning for the SW moors and NW Wales (Snowdonia), yet there are warnings for the NE including sheltered parts?
From a NW these two areas would cop it.
Originally Posted by: Patrick01
It's highly unlikely Polar Lows will be modelled in the NWP output. From past experience Fax output will be the ones to watch for signs of PLs, but I don't think the set-up covered by the Fax charts at this time range is conducive to PL development anyway.
pressure over Greenland a tad higher. Whether it will make any difference longer term, who knows
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015012612/gfsnh-0-114.png?12
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015012612/gfsnh-0-126.png?12
Something developing north of Scotland