Very cold out to next Wednesday

An Easterly in the making???

Latest 120 fax

The 18Z GFS has shifted closer to the 12Z ECM

Signal change or a blink and you'll miss it?
Also note the more robust energy spit on Monday which ends-up perilously close to a Channel Low.

Brimming with interest, and look how far south the 528 line is!

Close to an Easterly setting up

That looks OK with the 528 line heading for Malaga!

Yet Nina Ridge says dry inland

Excellent run from GFS ....................Hic!

Cold air from the East keeps us in Winter

A true pub run this....

Shame it'll be an outlier.

Yes good spot with respect the GEM.
One of the Atlantic brigade these last few days. it's 18Z offering also prolongs the cold with some Eastern promise at the end.

We are looking at the potential of a 10 day cold spell here, with the cold deepening each day after Friday's small blip.
Great stuff and even my level head is starting to wonder.

It would be a shame if we got the Scandi high and the air was as mild as shown on the 18Z though!

I know there are other factors, but given the 528 line is so well clear of the UK in all directions, surely that occluded front over the UK is a snowy one.

It probably will be, but I wouldn't mind betting it's not without some support. Developing an easterly isn't a new idea, it's been banded around various outputs for a few days now, and that remains the case. 

I notice this LP just off the English channel heading to northern France: - Will it or wont it!?

That is a significant adjustment on the 18z GFS at just 96 hours with that LP not phasing with the U.S. trough... tracing back and notable differences emerge between 60 and 72 hours range, which sure is close!

Such sudden changes are usually down to an important deviation in observations from what was expected, yet no such adjustment features on the 18z JMA and NAVGEM runs, so I'm not sure what to make of it really - can only wait to see if further support arises tomorrow.

I'm glad it's the end of the day - can sleep while waiting for the 00z runs to allow for a proper assessment of the situation.

Interesting comparing the 120 fax with the 18z GFS at the same point.... Whereas the general flow is broadly similar, the GFS looks largely featureless with precipitation mainly confined to coasts, whereas the fax clearly shows a small but noteworthy feature right across the country... These type of features tend to pop and develop as we get closer, as anyone tempted to moan at how the outlook looks 'dry' in the charts 3+ days out should note..... January 2010 is a prime example - wrongly written off by some 72 hours from the snow event that dumped 1ft+ over parts of southern England as one that would be a very cold, but boringly dry spell. 

I noticed that it was a new development too and hence its potential non-appearance on the 00z could make quite a difference. Certainly looking forward to reviewing the 00z output at 05:45 when my alarm rings!

The latest E4 is out. I have to say - considering this will be brought in on a west/north west wind. Theres not much snow forecast for our neck of the woods. Ie Southern parts of Northwest england into North wales.  Interestingly theres a greater risk in the east... which is odd

NMM goes for majority of rain away from the hills:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=3&mode=1&map=5

GFS goes for majority of snow exposed to the NW wind: (low res s probably overdoing it)

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/precipitations-hd/3h.htm

I really dont know what to make of this.  90% of the ingredients are there, and yet we are forecast to get nothing.  Is it the models not handling it correctly - or is this how it will acttually play out?

Yes and going by the Euro4 accumulation for NW England it is screaming a high ground event away from Cumbria. Still I wouldn't put to much emphasis on it. It could be completely wrong.

My snow risk map. Please see short term discussion thread for more details.