A few days of colder weather in prospect with snow for many.....extent and location remain fluid although northern parts appear to be more favoured right now.  

Enjoy the ride  

ECM D9 very cold and dry

ECM ends with blocking to the West and another attack from the North .............all FI

The control ends with much more of a block to the East

For my IMBY I am keeping a close eye on the wind direction, a straight northerly is good for here for snow but any hint of NNW keeps us sheltered. This morning both the GFS and ECM have basically straight northerly isobars (i.e. wind NNW) around Mon-Wed so I fear the eastern side could remain a bit sheltered, although embedded troughs etc could still do the trick for snow.

Plenty of embedded features showing up over the next few days snow could pop up almost anywhere. With the models showing no end in sight to the cold spell keeping it cold for at least 10 days we can't really complain. Well we can if we don't see snow! Fingers crossed for everyone.

Thursday night could be interesting for those of us further south.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=48&carte=2000

The fax charts into the weekend look very interesting. A whole host of fronts and troughs in the mix so I would say no one is immune from wintriness in the next few days given that we are almost all in sub528 dam air for much of the time

Without wishing to sound like a stuck record, dp's not favourable:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/00_48_ukdp.png?cb=894

Our chance for some snow possible early next week looking at the charts today.

This is the kind of feature we want to see for some snow in the south:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015012800/ECM1-144.GIF?28-12

A trend to keep an eye on.

0c/-1c dewpoints should be ok other factors look good. Maybe right on the coast it would be rain but inland should be snow. Bbc has snow for me Thursday night not saying much I know but it's there.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Cold fronts will clear SE out of the UK later today leading into a very cold and strong WNW flow with wintry showers tonight and tomorrow..

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming colder with snow showers or snow at times before becoming less cold and changeable again beyond next week.

THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Forecast shows a week long spell with a deep trough over NW Europe keeping the flow well South of the UK in NW winds. In week 2 the pattern flattens markedly over the Atlantic and Europe with the flow then moving in a more traditional and flatter West to East motion over or close to Southern England between High pressure re-established to the South of the UK and Low to the North.

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today continues to show an extension of the cold theme under Northerly winds throughout much of next week now with various disturbances running SE in the flow to enhance the coastal snow showers into the threat of more organized and widespread spells of sleet and snow at times. Later in the run the cold Northerly or NE feed by then is dislodged in preference to milder or even mild SW winds with rain at times more notably towards the North and West as a ridge collapses away from the UK.

THE GFS CONTROL  The GFS control run is broadly similar in many respects to the operational in the short to mid term but it shows support for cold weather to last for much of the run as High pressure ridging over the UK in 10 days eventually sets up a Scandinavian High pressure with a cold South-East feed developing especially across the South with the threat of snow as pressure falls to the SW.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters are not much interested in any control developing from High pressure to the East with a 75% to 25% majority in favour of Atlantic Westerlies overpowering our cold North feed by the end of the forecast period.

UKMO UKMO this morning continues to show the UK in a very cold Northerly flow well into the middle of next week and probably longer with unstable air and disturbances running down from the NW next week enhancing the risk of more widespread snowfall for all in the otherwise snow showery type theme with a lot of inland dry if very cold and sunny weather with all areas at risk of sharp night frosts.

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show an array of fronts crossing South and SE in cold and unstable air for most of the period out to 120hrs. A wintry mix of rain, sleet and snow showers or longer spells of snow for a few is possible from such an unstable airflow.

GEM GEM today also takes until the end of next week to displace the cold feed and in the period leading up to the flattening pattern from the West shows plenty of frontal activity in the cold Northerly airflow to offer many areas at least the risk of snowfall between now and then.

NAVGEM NAVGEM today keeps the cold going over the UK right out to the end of the run with High pressure gradually replacing the cold and unstable Northerly flow across the UK at the end of next week with widespread frosts.

ECM ECM this morning maintains cold weather to right out to the end of it's run today with as per NAVGEM High pressure ridging across the UK by Day 10 to take us out of the cold and unstable Northerly feed with quiet and cold fine and frosty weather by the end of next week. Synoptics shown at Day 10 looks ripe for a repeat of another cold plunge South next weekend.

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean this morning has slanted back towards a somewhat colder theme today with the Jet flow positioned further South a still some troughing across Europe. This chart is no doubt made up of colder options mixed with some Atlantic Westerly type scenarios and is not particularly a good guide within this current stand off.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend remains for much colder and windy weather later next week and through next weekend. The longevity of the spell has reverted back to a rather longer period as complications running down from the NW within the cold air extends the cold somewhat.

MY THOUGHTS  Well here we are at the point of entry into the cold spell which has been well handled by all the models in the run up to it with little variation in how we got here. It looks from this morning's output that apart from a slightly less cold interlude on Friday when precipitation could be of rain for low lying Britain that snow will be much more likely at times but it's all a question of where. More about that in a moment. The main talking point for folks as it always has been will be how cold it feels with a strong and locally gale wind feeding across the UK first from the WNW and then the North. The marked windchill that this gives will be of the like not felt so far this Winter. In compensation though there should be some good sunny spells and this should offset the chill to some degree but not much. then we come to the question of snow. This is the hardest nut to crack because as well as dealing with the notoriously variability of showers snow showers are even more unpredictable. The general line of thought is that all Northern, Western and Eastern coasts and hills will fair well with inland areas less likely to see many and for these areas we rely on minor troughs and features running South within the flow to see much in the way of snow here. The fax charts show that there will be some and a more noteworthy risk develops early next week as a small low tracks SSE from Iceland over western Britain. This then leads on to the expected longevity of the spell which has been extended by most output to take us out to the end of next week, mostly due to the Icelandic feature just mentioned early next week. Then at the extreme end of reality it still looks like a relaxation of cold either in the form of High pressure or Atlantic westerlies look likely but even then there is some suggestion of an European high of sorts to keep 'coldies' interested. So all in all a lot to keep an eye on over the coming days or weeks but remember the cold spell is almost here so don't miss it by keeping your heads into your computers all day looking for polar Lows and the likes when the cold spell will be unfolding right before your very eyes outside of your own windows.

Issued at 08:00 Wednesday January 28th 2015

Warming trend on the ECM ens so there will be no Daily Express "3 week freeze"

The De Bilt mean finally climbs to no higher than 6C in a fortnight's time, with some runs showing ice days at that point, so there might be a Daily Express "3-week freeze".

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php?run=00

Bearing in mind the fallibility of Model Output at range I would be taking that with a pinch of salt

I have a question about the T96 fax regarding the front shown over the southern half of the country.  Is the part of the front that's pretty much on top of Norwich showing a point at which it will wrap around itself with the front that's drapped around the coast and in to France being dragged back west on the northern flank?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack3.gif

Looks like some circulation developing.

PS - look at the bloody size of that front that stretches from Newfoundland to Moscow !!! 

What are the chances of this low pressure from Monday into Tuesday next week? -Could it sweep across English Channel and if it does head northwards into southern Eng for more prolonged sleet/snow!??????

But we have always been let down so it will probably miss us and head to Channel Isles and Northern France .

What are the chances of this low pressure from Monday into Tuesday next week? -Could it sweep across English Channel and if it does head northwards into southern Eng for more prolonged sleet/snow!??????

the last time London/Essex saw snow was FEB 2012---3 years ago, so to see that head southeast over our postcode would be  treat.

Yes I have been keeping an eye on that one. The last three GFS runs have all picked up on that feature but the other models less so.

Having said that this morning's ECM has an interesting placement for central southern areas.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif 

Ties in with what Ian F was saying about the Met Office watching that LP closely for the southwest.

Thanks. 

Stretch that thing out and it would probably go around pretty much the whole globe at our latitude!!

Yes - my parents live in Braunton - last cold spell they had a lot of hail - like 2cm's of it one morning, but Bude and Westward Ho! Bared the brunt with hail and sleet showers too - all exposed to the northerly wind and frequent wintry showers running of Celtic sea and coming off Bristol channel.