I would be happy with that a March 2013 repeat maybe on the cards if it stays cold enough.

The Control is a fan of the block to the East

After an unexpectedly hectic and challenging morning (don't worry nothing too serious), it's a big relief to discover that model support is now looking strong for the shortwave in the Atlantic not to phase with the U.S. low in four days time, with the early part of next week now looking very promising for a bit of snow thrown in with some proper Arctic cold entrenched right across the UK  

Then there's that easterly potential... will this one go the way of the last? The pattern seems more supportive this time around so I'm seeing reasons to be positive 

Majority of GEFS at Day 10 power back the Atlantic which ties in with METO longer range thoughts. Odds do not favour a Scandi or even UK high at  the moment. Northern jet is too stong

Very pretty.

Question is, what would that low over western Iceland do next? Zip over the top of the SH, or slide SSE'wards over/near the UK? There's energy from it slipping both ways..

I think the LP over the Mid atlantic and the one over north scandinavia will dictate where the HP goes.  With enough UMPH from the siberian LP that HP could relocate north and west towards iceland

Latest from Ian for this region:

W COUNTRY Further ahead, despite the colder weather, we currently don't forsee any real snow issues here Fri-Sun. Some uncertainty nxt week.

Yep - lots of potential. 

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I'm hoping the 'weather' we need to get though includes at least a little snow, and would it be too much to ask for some settling?

The upper air temps seem better late Sunday into Monday down here, so hopefully that low Tuesday will deliver for the snow starved South.

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With GEFS still running on old code, hopefully they are displaying a strong case of the bias to power up the northern jet too fast and too far, with the upgraded op run managing to steer clear of such behaviour.

Either that or higher resolution is proving very important.

Or a bit of both!

Tricky times, but I am seeing some indications on the technical side of things (based on trends in GWO/AAM projections for example) that the pattern should be reluctant to move on from where we are early next week. As ever, that does depend on those trends being correct, so I reckon it's best not to pin hopes on much beyond Monday/Tuesday, to be safe.

Having the Thursday-Tuesday period laden with so many opportunities for a bit of white precipitation should give us plenty to keep track of while the direction later next week gets sorted out 

I notice the dew points have fallen off a cliff sooner than the past few NMM high-res runs have shown. Of all the models I would like to see getting it wrong over the coming few days, NMM is the one, with it's persistently higher dew point projections and insistence on not even one flake falling IMBY.

Euro4, WRF-ARW, GFS and the TV forecasts from the BBC all give areas from around Reading southward at least a chance - though no real sign of anything settling, which I do consider to be realistic.

At least it's easy to take a relaxed approach at the moment, thanks to the greater potential Saturday night through to at least Tuesday.

Tears will flow if no snow.... 😥😥😥😥😨😢😢😤

Well that's now two days this winter I have seen falling snow. I am pretty optimistic of seeing at least a bit falling tonight/tomorrow morning (hopefully it will coincide with me cycling home late tonight).

Then I have a feeling Monday/Tuesday might spring a surprise or two.

Not from me.  Cracking cold snap 10 days ago - 4 blue sky days on the trot - it may not feel so pleasant this time with the wind but it is great walking weather.

Will miss any snow in the Chilts this weekend as will be walking the coast path from Dartmouth to Brixham and will try and pick the sunniest day. 

I can absolutely guarantee no snow there - only ever seen a sprinkle once about 3 years ago.

I'm in the process of updating this visualization to include other useful info. But anyway here is the lake effect potential for midnight tonight.

Values generally between 14 and 18. So the potential for some fairly hefty showers but probably nothing thundery (20C+ usually required). Possibly something a bit more interesting by the time we get to the weekend though on those very cold northerly winds...

No reds or yellows though unfortunately. You can still get thundersnow if all the other factors are good (sheer, fetch, inversion level) which they are, so if anything this is probably an underestimation. Also ofc if you get a feature that changes things as usual. 

I think Ian F's tweet sums up our chancs Rob:

'A 30% chance small snow accumulations in parts of S England, e.g. Salisbury Plain; most seeing none'

You never know...

Really need to watch saturday, this could be quite nasty.

This mornings ECM run was in the Middle of all the ensembles.

Giant teeth headed for Matty...