Pushed back again. Looks like Gavin was right in his video earlier. The cold is stubborn, the charts always look for the easy way out when reverting to a westerly solution.

Love it

Indeed Neil. In some ways I think that following the model output just now is a bit like watching Andy Murray play tennis; one minute he appears to be down and then the next he pulls something incredible out of the fire, or vice versa.

What happens from late next week onwards is nowhere near being settled right now.

Beat me to it Arcus

Perhaps better to look at it the other way round, and be amazed when the numerical modelling of turbulence actually does offer consensus and consistency 6 days out.

It's payback for all the times that cold spells at the 10 day range keep getting put back a day each run...

Hypothetically speaking, if someone had asked me at the start of the winter which week I would say climatologically speaking was the best for a cold spell to stand a chance of delivering lowland snowfall, I would have said first week of February (in fact that's what I opted for in my LRF fwiw).  Anyhow, this coming week still has low levels of insolation, the sea temperatures have cooled off considerably from where they are earlier in the winter, the Atlantic is often less vigorous than earlier in the season and also, the polar and continental regions aroundabout us are usually cold or at least have had the chance to cool down further as compared to early winter.

With charts like the ones already posted this afternoon, this coming week offers many away from the N and W of the British Isles their best chance of a piece of the action for two years.  All we need now is for everything to slot into exactly the right place at the right time, not much to ask?

personally I'd have gone with the so called Buchan cold spell starting on the 7th through to the 14th.

Sun gets stronger but its also a good 'un.

And back to the models - GEM at 144:

Still universal agreement for it to sink. Just a question of whether we can get a bit of snow beforehand

I think you're getting ahead of yourself Beast, the demise of this cold spell/snap is in FI.  Just a question of how many more times the end can be delayed?

I tend to disagree with this. Most output points towards a BBQ Valentines day.

Each to their own.

I like BBQs but not on Valentine's day.  You must be some kind of mentalist though if you're talking up the weather in 16 days time

With respect, didn't there appear to be universal agreement at one stage a couple of weeks ago that when last week's cold spell ended, we'd be back into the atlantic dominated pattern we had from early December until the middle of January and that it would then persist until at least early February? Didn't turn out like that did it?

With some evidence for a fairly robust NE flow across many areas from Tues to Thurs next week, one has to start considering the potential for streamer features. One such feature is being modelled by GFS and presents what could be the best chance of snow for many SE areas thus far denied it.

Still some good GEFS members better than the op and control

like this one

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015013012/gensnh-6-1-168.png

Joking aside, on balance there is very little support for the cold to last beyond 8th-9th Feb

Only 50% of this morning's ECM ensembles and 70% of the 6z GEFS....

I wouldn't want to predict the end of the cold spell just yet. "Very little" support to me would indicate much lower percentages than those.

Which is still in La La Land as far as the models are concerned IMO. There is little if any point in taking output shown for later next week and beyond with much seriousness as far as I'm concerned- see Neil's post in here from an hour or so ago.

My focus will be on this, rather than searching for the end of it.  At this stage there is potential for steamers, and though I'm in pole position in that respect, experience has taught me to only take these type of convective and convergent features seriously in a nowcast scenario as almost imperceptible changes in wind direction can make all the difference, AND the upper air temperatures are still mostly marginal.  Anything below -8 is required for lowland snow in these scenarios and lower on windward coasts.  Most of the time the Goodwin Sands get a good covering twice a day, if you see what I mean.

Indeed, focusing on the next few days is the best option as we all know how quickly features can pop up, move around and so on. The end will come sooner or later but it's not imminent and we have numerous opportunities for snow no matter where we are in the UK - it's a very interesting spell of weather IMO.

Even in short form the GFS ensemble is a big upgrade on the snow percentages in my area for next week.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=297&y=178&run=12&runpara=0&type=0&ext=1

Tuesday is the day to watch for snow to move well inland on a NE steering flow.

But this may be one of those ocassions where the higher res op runs handle things better

ECM looks like it will be a quick sinker stinker

ENE I hope. In a purely IMBY perspective, that is the truly sweet spot for the legendary Thames streamer. With 50cm to bit from the phenomena this decade alone, here's hoping GEM and UKMO are on the money at +144.

I can't remember, but FI begins just beyond +144 right? Anything up to then is completely solid and reliable yes? Especially with snow right?