This is so annoying, the pattern is perfect for a retrogression to greenland, were it not for an insanely strong polar vortex that is set to develop. The pressure on an otherwise healthy block is just too great, and it breaks.

Damit.

It might be rubbish for you in the far NE but it's looking OK for us down here for a few days.

Interestingly the OP and control on GFS are both out on a limb with most of the ENS showing some form of easterly flow later next week. My golden rule however is when the OP and lower res control run together, there is higher confidence so I wouldn't rule any solution out from next Friday at this stage.
Plenty to get through before that though and almost for the first time this winter I'm genuinely intrigued by what next week has in store.

I can fully understand why the ensembles are still holding on, it is a completely natural solution for HP to build towards greenland and open the floodgates. With these synoptics I remember it almost always does, its just that the heights go so ridiculously low while it happens, it prevents the attempt, I mean even with the low heights the cold still endures for another 4 days! Look at this crap:

One of the strongest polar vortexes I have ever seen. I mean a normal polar vortex is fine, its so damn natural for the retrogression to happen, but this, its just too much.

The HP is desperate to go to greenland, you can tell at 168, but a monster polar vortex is even more determined not to let it.

Still, the balance has shifted slightly towards the HP on the 12Z vs the 0Z, not that it is likely to change anything.

Don't take it personally. It's not out to get you - really, it isn't

Wow, this is JMA.

The balrog polar vortex is defeated.

ECM looks pretty much a stalemate, neither the polar vortex or the HP give in, the ECM solution is bitterly cold though with light winds and the minus ten line trickling through. If the ECM verifies, not much snow to speak of but some very low temps (sub zero maxima double digit minina)

Shame its only the cannon fodder models and low res ens members that are building high pressure. Its not going to happen

I might well not, but at this range I really wouldn't like to make such a definite call. 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015013012/ECM0-216.GIF?30-0

The azores ridge desperately tries to reach out to his mate for assistance. Cold uppers return to the SE corner

How do you know that? People we saying back in early January that there wouldn't be any cold spell this month because the models were not showing it at that time- how wrong they were.

Writing off a prolonged cold spell just because most model op and ensemble runs don't show it at the moment is unwise.

This morning's Indian:

This evening's Chinese:

and this evening's NAVGEM.  The lesser models go for the north easterly days 5-7....

Indeed David. Just take a look at the January CET predictions, most of us went way too high. When the predictions were made between 29-31st December the output was painting an atlantic dominated month right out to 384 hours.

It didn't quite turn out that way did it ? 

Looks like we have 6 or 7 days with snow chances for many then high pressure moves in. A rather boring end to the cold spell is the favourite at the moment.  we do get an easterly but not a very good one and short lived. Getting a good easterly these days seems to be very difficult. And getting a snowy breakdown seems a thing of the past as well.

Do the Thais do a model? If so we'll have an excellent choice of take-aways

I was going to post the Brazilian but there might be children viewing.

I'm just off for an Indian myself.

Slightly o/t but to just demonstrate a point. The Norwegian Met Office, only this morning, reported that up to 20+cm of snow is likely for SE Norway for tomorrow with more on Sunday. They have just tweeted now that changes in the prognosis means it will now be dry, with any snow (and light at that) now being confined right near the Swedish border.

I have mentioned a few times that GFS, in particular, has been very poor for this region and whilst the Norwegian Met, like the UK, will generally use ECM to determine its official forecasts, this also shows that ECM has many failings with specific details within the T+12 hour range! I think all models have handled this particular period of low heights over Scandi pretty poorly. The small disruptions to the W of Norway have also caused model headaches. At times, A NW wind was being progged and at other times, the trough was further W, pushed a little E, then back W, dropped a little S and on it went.

I certainly wouldn't look too much beyond T+96 atm.

Not seen many pics from you lately Mike , gone all green has it

I would post up the Swedish one, but it has taken me 3 hours to put it together, I seem to have several bits left over, and it just fell apart ...

Pure white with lots of snow Marcus. Snow yesterday. Snow today. And 3 days ago

I tend to post the photos after some of the bigger falls - otherwise it is too boring and will just look the same... day after day, after day..

Ecm mean similar to the Op. We are going to need some upgrades tomorrow to extend this wintry spell. 

It is a massive upgrade on the 0Z, the ECM keeps it cold right to 240hr contrary to this morning. Okay its inversion cold by the end but its still a step forward. 

If the ECM is the correct solution. And that's a big if. IMO it hasn't performed too well in the 96 - 144 range these last few weeks, lurching around from one solution to the next. I know GFS does, but perceptively GFS has been more consistent.
The verification stats might say different of course.