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Gooner
30 January 2015 20:48:33


 


 


Pure white with lots of snow Marcus. Snow yesterday. Snow today. And 3 days ago


I tend to post the photos after some of the bigger falls - otherwise it is too boring and will just look the same... day after day, after day..


Originally Posted by: Nordic Snowman 


How the other half live, I am sure we wouldn't take that POV

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


ITSY
30 January 2015 21:05:12
Probably not anything historic or truly memorable, that's true, but still plenty of opportunities for moderate snowfall for indeed a decent number of us in the coming week. GFS Op and meto forecast illustrate that quite well
Ally Pally Snowman
30 January 2015 21:20:56


 


If the ECM is the correct solution. And that's a big if. IMO it hasn't performed too well in the 96 - 144 range these last few weeks, lurching around from one solution to the next. I know GFS does, but perceptively GFS has been more consistent.
The verification stats might say different of course.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


its not just the ECM though ukmo looks like it's going the same way at 144h. GFS op only slightly better. Some of the lesser models ar better though so you never know.


Meto seem to think February will be cold so we should get more chances later in the month.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Arcus
30 January 2015 21:29:26


 


its not just the ECM though ukmo looks like it's going the same way at 144h. GFS op only slightly better. Some of the lesser models ar better though so you never know.


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


What was UKMO showing at t+144, 12 hours ago?


 


Not signalling you out Pally, but everyone should just look at what the last 24 hours of actuality was looking like at t+144 on most models last week. The little low forming in the bosom of the extended high was ne'er a glint in the ECM's eye.


Let's not all get aboard for the Tena Lady Express, just enjoy the intrigue. It's easier.

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
stophe
30 January 2015 21:30:47

What do you reckon ? it could go either way for the dutch ensembles.


http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/Data/15DAAGSE_06260_NWT.png

Ally Pally Snowman
30 January 2015 21:36:01


 


What was UKMO showing at t+144, 12 hours ago?


 


Not signalling you out Pally, but everyone should just look at what the last 24 hours of actuality was looking like at t+144 on most models last week. The little low forming in the bosom of the extended high was ne'er a glint in the ECM's eye.


Let's not all get aboard for the Tena Lady Express, just enjoy the intrigue. It's easier.


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


 


Definitely time for things to improve as it's still about a week away. 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
sizzle
30 January 2015 21:38:41


 


 


Definitely time for things to improve as it's still about a week away. 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

exactly that's why its been so slow on here today and else where. might be worth reading the buzz update.

Karl Guille
30 January 2015 21:45:42


What do you reckon ? it could go either way for the dutch ensembles.


http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/Data/15DAAGSE_06260_NWT.png


Originally Posted by: stophe 


That was the first thing I noted. There is clear daylight in a couple of places between the two camps!

St. Sampson
Guernsey
David M Porter
30 January 2015 21:50:20


 


What was UKMO showing at t+144, 12 hours ago?


 


Not singling you out Pally, but everyone should just look at what the last 24 hours of actuality was looking like at t+144 on most models last week. The little low forming in the bosom of the extended high was ne'er a glint in the ECM's eye.


Let's not all get aboard for the Tena Lady Express, just enjoy the intrigue. It's easier.


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


Tidied word in bold for you.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Arcus
30 January 2015 21:53:23


 


Tidied word in bold for you.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


Don't turn your chair for my voice, definitely.

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Gusty
30 January 2015 22:19:10

Heads continue to turn for the possibility of a convective snowy situation for the Kent crew..potentially the first real shot at this synoptic set up since way back in late November 2010. 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Whether Idle
30 January 2015 22:21:26


Heads continue to turn for the possibility of a convective snowy situation for the Kent crew..potentially the first real shot at this synoptic set up since way back in late November 2010. 



Originally Posted by: Gusty 


-10 uppers in on this run around 150 hrs (on 6th)



 

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Gusty
30 January 2015 22:24:50


 


-10 uppers in on this run around 150 hrs (on 6th)



 


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Looking good Phil.


Some hard northward WAA pumping action this weekend is crucial. 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Whether Idle
30 January 2015 22:29:52

 5-7 February look like they have potential.  See what the models show over the weekend.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Deep Powder
30 January 2015 22:30:42


 


Looking good Phil.


Some hard northward WAA pumping action this weekend is crucial. 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Might also be good for the wider SE, maybe North downs into Surrey and parts of Sussex. GEM at 132hrs would fit this bill, but it is the GEM, so probably less likely than the UKMO and GFS.......

Near Leatherhead 100masl (currently living in China since September 2019)
Loving the weather whatever it brings, snow, rain, wind, sun, heat, all great!
Gusty
30 January 2015 22:34:08


 


Might also be good for the wider SE, maybe North downs into Surrey and parts of Sussex. GEM at 132hrs would fit this bill, but it is the GEM, so probably less likely than the UKMO and GFS.......


Originally Posted by: Deep Powder 


Indeed. A strong flow being suggested by recent GFS output would bring Surrey and Sussex into the firing line. 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Whether Idle
30 January 2015 22:38:50

Time for a fax:   Met O are getting with the programme: 120 hrs


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Karl Guille
30 January 2015 22:41:59
Quietly keeping an eye on prospects down here in the Channel Islands too! 😉
St. Sampson
Guernsey
Deep Powder
30 January 2015 22:45:27


 


Indeed. A strong flow being suggested by recent GFS output would bring Surrey and Sussex into the firing line. 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Glad you agree, good to have a knowledgeable forecaster like yourself affirm this.......... although I think the wind direction would be better for the Kent massive. Even so, if it did come to fruition, it's a short journey for a snow hunt for me to Kent!😉

Near Leatherhead 100masl (currently living in China since September 2019)
Loving the weather whatever it brings, snow, rain, wind, sun, heat, all great!
Matty H
30 January 2015 22:48:13

Steve, remember that easterly flow a few years back. You were adamant it would bring frequent snow showers. The MetO said it would be dry, and ultimately they were right. I know this situation is different, but why was that? I can't recall the reasons as to why it delivered nothing. 

Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
Islander
30 January 2015 22:52:44

Quietly keeping an eye on prospects down here in the Channel Islands too! 😉

Originally Posted by: Karl Guille 


good man good man :-)

Guernsey
Deep Powder
30 January 2015 22:55:48


Steve, remember that easterly flow a few years back. You were adamant it would bring frequent snow showers. The MetO said it would be dry, and ultimately they were right. I know this situation is different, but why was that? I can't recall the reasons as to why it delivered nothing. 


Originally Posted by: Matty H 


I remember that well, I too thought it would bring snow. It was Feb half term of 2013. Wind direction was good 850s were good,but in the end low pressure was just too far away/to weak to drive the shower development properly. I distinctly remember some heavy snow starting and a streamer attempting to develop, but after 20 minutes or so it petered out in my area.......I think parts of Kent got a couple of centimetres. Even so it was cold and frozen solid IMBY and I saw some great icicle bushes, you know tho ones, where cars splash water from puddles onto bushes as they drive past, and it gradually freezes leaving a weird ice sculpture. Sorry that's a poor description, but I do have pictures, which, if I can post, will make it a lot clearer......😀


EDIT - just checked archive charts it was 22nd February 2013, 850s were at least -10c into South East and lower in Kent, but the centre of the high pressure was too close/not far enough North so killed any precipitation. This is a different setup, or at least appears to be to my amateur eye.....

Near Leatherhead 100masl (currently living in China since September 2019)
Loving the weather whatever it brings, snow, rain, wind, sun, heat, all great!
Matty H
30 January 2015 22:58:08


 


I remember that well, I too thought it would bring snow. It was Feb half term of 2013. Wind direction was good 850s were good,but in the end low pressure was just too far away/to weak to drive the shower development properly. I distinctly remember some heavy snow starting and a streamer attempting to develop, but after 20 minutes or so it petered out in my area.......I think parts of Kent got a couple of centimetres. Even so it was cold and frozen solid IMBY and I saw some great icicle bushes, you know tho ones, where cars splash water from puddles onto bushes as they drive past, and it gradually freezes leaving a weird ice sculpture. Sorry that's a poor description, but I do have pictures, which, if I can post, will make it a lot clearer......😀


Originally Posted by: Deep Powder 


Thanks. I cannot remember the Synoptics at all, but several people, not just Steve, were baffled by the MetO forecasts of dry weather, so it must have been exceptional. It went on for several days as well IIRC


 

Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
Rob K
30 January 2015 23:17:03


What do you reckon ? it could go either way for the dutch ensembles.


http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/Data/15DAAGSE_06260_NWT.png


Originally Posted by: stophe 


 


certainly not a nailed on return to mild. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Rob K
30 January 2015 23:20:49


Time for a fax:   Met O are getting with the programme: 120 hrs



Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


 


Ok so here's the plan - I drive down to Devon to seem my folks tomorrow. Stay for the SW snow event on Monday, then head back here for the northeasterly on Wed/Thu. What could fail? ;)

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

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