Next Thursday. SE corner. 2mT 2-3C; dps -4, uppers -10; ppn - yes.

What could go wrong?

Night all

Interesting lack of interest in the 18z output.... I can understand why....  Yes, it's cold, but not especially so, and yes, we don't have the Atlantic roaring in but frankly, it's really rather boring.   Yes, we could get surprised by some snow events, which would be nice,  but there's not enough potential to get excited....

With 2m temps of 2-3c.... it's not even right 120 hours out   

Another slight upgrade, wondering if there is a tipping point we might move past. I recon there will be opportunities to convert a psedo cold spell into a cold spell, at least more than converting raging zonality into cold. Really we are quite well off with this output, if we get snowcover especially it will be frigid at night.

.... and a number of the perturbations on the GFS 18z ensembles suggest just that. Certainly worth keeping an eye on during the the next couple of days! 

Perhaps more striking is the total lack of mild options (somewhat less so on the 18Z than 12Z though), zonality really isn't likely in the foreseeable future. 

Morning

The models continue to show some decent winter charts.   The ECM brings the cold back in for a glancing blow to the east coast in FI.  Worth an eye out for in future runs.  The GEFS are a bit messy after 6th Feb.

The transitional toppler driven NEly for 3-6th is still there but has weakened.  Thereafter its a matter of where the HP sits, all sorts of options in the GEFS.  Sods law dictates it will sit over us and send the cold to our friends in the Med

WI

There's enthusiasm, and there's blind optimism!

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=306&y=141&ville=Londres

From a slow moderation of the cold by way of a UK high, this latest set screams Goodnight Vienna as far as deep cold feeds are concerned. With a much quieter period, typical of February, on the cards we could very well be picking the bones looking for snow opportunities for quite a while.

Very similar to the UKMet long range once again. There's a reason those extended forecasts hardly change - it's because they normally don't have to

Indeed, scorchio by the weekend!

More settled perhaps, but warmer? I'm not sure. If the High is over the UK it could stay (or become very chilly with temoerature inversion conditions?

This is for next weekend

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn15017.html)

And the mean temperature maps from the GFS op run suggest the chilly conditions will hand around. http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html 

It doesn't mean widespread wintriness but there could be a chilly, frosty settled few days for many.

(No doubt we will have enough breeze here to make it cloudy here and avoid the frost as effectively as we have avoided the snow so far )

latest from fergie over n NW

Any global drivers remain of little anticipated influence into medium range (as previously outlined). MJO expected to remain weak in W Pacific, with only a minority of ENS yielding sufficient amplitude to be of predictive value for UK weather. Signal for a significant SSW mid-Feb remains a minority in latest output. Despite expected eastwards shunt of the cold vortex, cold/rather cold boundary layer across UK won't necessarily budge as willingly under anticyclonic conditions (when they arrive). Despite lack of clear global drivers and (currently) only minority cluster signal for major SSW, there remains tentative signs of a generally more blocked/anticyclonic/drier/colder boundary layer regime later Feb, as more simply expressed in UKMO 16-30D forecast.

Sorry rather late this morning but better late than never.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold Northerly flow will continue across the UK with minor disturbances in the flow gradually clearing away South.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining cold with some snow showers especially near northern coasts. Becoming dry and possibly less cold in the North later.

THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Forecast shows the deep trough in the flow across Europe currently remaining for another week or so before signs of the trough lifting out somewhat to a WNW to ESE flow just South of the UK later in the period.

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows cold North and then NE for much of the UK over this coming week as further disturbances run South across the UK on Tuesday with another mix of rain and snow followed by a veer of wind to NE as pressure builds in from the west cutting off the cold feed from all but South and East England next weekend. The weather will stay cold and anticyclonic as High pressure sits over or near the UK from day 6-10 before the High collapses slowly SE and allows less cold Westerly winds to move in across many areas at least for a time at the end of the period.

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run is in many ways a replica of the operational in theme with just differences in speed and extent of the breakdown away from High pressure in Week 2 with only a slow pick up in temperatures more likely for the North and West in the largely dry pattern of weather.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters show a 65%/35% split in favour of an Anticyclone lying near or over the UK in 14 days time giving rise to dry and fine if cold conditions with frosts at night. The remaining 35% go for a more Atlantic type pattern with Low pressure to the North or NE in West or NW winds.

UKMO UKMO this morning shows High pressure building in from the West through the latter stages of this week with the NE feed across the South weakening by next weekend as a ridge of High pressure lies across the UK with fine and frosty conditions replacing the snow showers of the late working week. From the Day 6 chart High pressure to the west looks like setting up to deliver a further push of cold air from the North in the following week..

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a slow build of pressure through the week as an Atlantic High becomes more dominant. The precursor to that will be a series of weak disturbances running South at times giving rise to patchy rain and sleet and snow showers on the temporary NE feed in the second part of the week for the South and East.

GEM GEM today shows High pressure gradually taking control of the weather as we move through the latter part of this week as a ridge extends East from it across the UK sinking South later cutting off the cold NE feed and snow showers with little wind and cold frosty conditions. Then the High recedes back out into the Atlantic towards the SW and sets up a benign WNW airflow with gradually rising temperatures and rather cloudy but dry conditions for many for the start of week 2.

NAVGEM NAVGEM today keeps the Northerly then NE feed going throughout the first 4 days of the working week with snow showers in the East before High pressure takes control centred over Scotland next weekend with quiet and settled conditions with sharp frosts and freezing fog patches likely but compensatory sunny days.

ECM ECM this morning also shows High pressure becoming the dominant feature of the UK weather over the period once we lose the Cold and unstable North and NE airflow over the UK until later in the week. The High then sets up residence across the UK with very frosty nights but bright, cold but sunny days for many.

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean this morning indicates the likelihood of High pressure lying over or close to the UK in 10 days time with fine and settled weather. The coldest weather is likely in the South as some members show a milder westerly flow over the North.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend has gained universal support from the models for High pressure to replace the current cold Northerly flow later next week and beyond. The resting place of such a High is yet to be determined.

MY THOUGHTS The cold spell continues across the UK and though for many I'm sure it is nothing more than slightly below par period of temperatures with little in the way of frost as yet some areas have at least seen some snowfall and this pattern is set to continue for some days yet with maybe some new areas who have yet to see snow at risk of at least a little, principally from Tuesday to Thursday as a disturbance runs South over the UK veering the North wind to NE opening the door for the East and SE to run the risk of snow showers. After Tuesday the risk of snow in the SW is minimal and in any event there is now almost universal support for High pressure to ridge in across the UK from the West, certainly by next weekend cutting off any remaining NE flow and settling the weather down to a typical Winter Anticyclone type with overnight sharp frosts and freezing fog patches with bright and sunny days and in these the South will feel quite pleasant in the near calm conditions and rising sun elevation. It's then that the differences in evolution between the models become apparent but not in any particularly dynamic sort of way. Most models want to move High pressure away from the UK in week 2 with the UKMO looking to pull it West and perhaps set up a new Northerly later. ECM holds it firm across the UK with quite a lot of support from it's ensemble members from it's own group and GFS too. What isn't shown is any type of Easterly flow developing nor a raging Atlantic westerly either so the odds on favourite is that after this weeks sleet and snow showers finally give way then the rest of the period looks dry and fine but rather cold by day and very cold by night with frost and freezing fog patches especially over any still remaining lying snow by then.

Issued at 08:00 Sunday February 1st 2015

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015020106/gfsnh-0-72.png?6

Had it not been for that shortwave north of Iceland, we could have had a good outcome

Its been sleety snowing on and off here all morning in Suffolk. Showers turning more to snow now that colder uppers are returning from the north. Yesterday heavy showers started to settle - massive flakes and all looked to be a winter wonderland. Then the uppers lifted and the temp rose to 3.5c and the snow turned to rain, melting all. Today very windy here, so mixing the air. probably no chance of settling therefore, as less evaporative cooling. At just 200ft asl, its looking like a damp day - unless these showers continue after dark tonight, and wind drops a tad. Uppers modelled to remain at -5, right throughout next week, flirting with -10 air off East Anglian coast for a day or so. So might see something white for more than an hour after all?

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015020106/gfsnh-1-102.png?6

cold air never gets here at all now

Lazarus moment? better amplification and pressure rise over Scandi

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015020106/gfsnh-0-108.png?6

A colder Easterly across the South on this run

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015020106/gfsnh-0-114.png?6

LOL. Cold air sneaks in the through the cat flap. Shows how tiny global factors can make big localised differences

A colder snowier run.  Should it verify, it would create some dusted white meadows and lawns across much of England with -10 uppers inbound

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015020106/gfsnh-1-120.png?6

Oh dear. I was planning a BBQ next weekend

Must be quite galling for the naysayers to be presented with this output