Interesting ECM run (not over us, further North!)

Goes from this:

To this:-

Canadian PV lobe waning, nice intense Siberian lobe. Now all we need is for our resident HP to back West and North and we're away

The GFS ens also show a bit of scatter later on, with a big spread of 850 temps. The majority keep the 850's up, although not overly warm at the surface (down South anyway, not looked oop North).

I guess at least it'll be useable weather, hopefully not a fogfest as that's a bit iffy for commuting by bike.

really struggling to see the potential there to be honest.

buzz update is intresting, brian goes and say don't write of winter, there could be a sting in the tail.at the end of the update  does he see something ahead or is he just teasing us.

None of which will happen of course.

I've been told and I quote;

"Winter is not over by a long chalk". 

No further explanation was given, although I insisted on more detail. 

I'll work on it though!

Frustrating!

Pretty obvious really as its only February 4th Speedy

Dry , dry , dry and dry then

Listening to the 21:55 it sounds like its  a cloudy high also

Except we have an absolutely frigid arctic airmass next door. The -15C line actually scrapes with Shetland, this is the sort of potential I refered to a few days ago when this was more common on the ensembles. 

Anyway I like the trending on the GFS today, a small upgrade to be sure, but a few more of those and we are laughing!

NAVGEM reduces the height gradient for the W atlantic at 144hr, really starting to get interesting I think. 

You keep going for it, Q.
And if little happens as seems likely, at least we've been entertained (much like the Moaning Thread, which is great fun).

And back to ground zero, the hugely overwhelming concensus is a dry. cool. at times cloudy borefest well into next week.

Hmmm, could be a bit too early to be coming away with that last line methinks. Remember that a month ago, a number of people here were writing the whole of January off as a zonal fest and given the model output at the time, in a way that was understandable. But as we've seen in the last three weeks, things can change quickly. Not saying there will be changes again that favour another wintry spell, but it can't be discounted.

About this time 10 years ago a much respected contributor to this thread said "winter is over" based on poor model output, and in the space of a few days the models did a major U-Turn. It is unwise to second-guess the models IMO.

Thing is though ns, the ensembles have been hinting at this kind of thing for nearly 5 days now, a few have managed to keep the HP far enough west to put the arctic in a freezing airmass (and it truly is ridiuclously cold). So ensemble profiles like this have been downright common.

Most ensembles going for normal or above normal 850s, but with a handful of ridiculous runs. I've seen -17C in the odd one! Since this has been going on for so long it tells me that the situation is very finely balanced, that although the chance of a cold incursion is low, the shift needed to produce one is tiny. And if the chance at any given time is low (the pattern is really not changing for the next week) is it low for the integrated time? This makes me less sure. What happens if the OP picks one of those -15ers and runs with it, and given that there seems to be an almost endless window of opportunity for it to happen...

I really hope that your hunch pays off.

There is some (at last)  properly cold air available not that far away,  we just need the correct synoptics to tap into it. The relative calmness of the Atlantic must help,  as it only would take a slight lull in the northern arm of the jet to allow retrogession to Greenland and then anything is possible. 

That said,  the odds are still against it, at least for now.

Kieron 

An interesting shift in the GEFS 12z Aberdeen ensembles tonight in FI. Many more colder runs than recently which suggests momentum is building for retrogression of the UK high North towards mid-Feb. Whether this happens, and if so, for how long is pure conjecture this far out of course. However, given the mundane model runs over recent days, some possible optimism for coldies at last. Trends are what matters though, so forthcoming ensemble runs won't be without interest.

Q will of course keep finding chinks of light in the future synoptics - The Q Continuum - but what we see across the board at the moment is an overwhelming signal for a week at least of stubborn high pressure sat pretty much in the worst place (no cold easterly feed and no nice balmy southwesterly. Not my cup of tea, so I'm off until things change

Haven't checked myself yet John - but will do once I have poured another coffee  Hoping things haven't gone t-up for me re: Saturday () and with a continued risk as shown on GFS regarding the end of next week and a renewed plunge 

Yes something is brewing could be the coldest spell of the winter starting around the 14th.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.html

... or the warmest

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2402.gif

You pays yer money, you takes yer choice at that range.